NFC West: One Draft Value and One Fade

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As we get closer to kicking off redraft season for both work and home leagues, I wanted to highlight some current values across the fantasy landscape. I’ll be going one division at a time, the NFC West is up today, and highlighting one player I think is a draft value and one I believe should be faded at cost. For this series, I’ll be using Underdog’s ADP as a baseline until more drafts take place and we get a clearer picture of how players are coming off the board.

Hope you find this info useful and include it in your draft prep to help dominate your leagues.

Also, check out the one draft value and one fade from the NFC North, NFC East, and NFC South.

Draft Value: Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers (ADP 75.5, WR41)

Life comes at you fast sometimes. One minute you’re a surprise first-round pick in the NFL Draft, the next you’re recovering from a gunshot wound to the chest after being attacked while shopping in the very city that just drafted you, just days before your rookie debut.

To say Ricky Pearsall had a wild and chaotic first year as a pro is a massive understatement. He went through all the usual ballyhoo and offseason obligations that come with being a Round 1 rookie. However, instead of suiting up in Week 1, Pearsall spent the early part of the season recovering on the non-football injury list.

The 49ers gave Pearsall all the time he required to heal, but needed him on the field once Brandon Aiyuk was lost to a torn ACL and MCL in Week 7. Despite a snap share over 50 percent every week, Pearsall didn’t do much until the end of the year.

Ricky Pearsall Advanced Metrics

It’s only a two-game sample size, but Pearsall ended his season on a high note. In Weeks 17 and 18, he amassed 14 receptions for 210 yards and two touchdowns. Per Dave Kluge of Footballguys, here’s a list of rookie WRs who also hit those numbers over a two-game stretch:

That’s some elite company for Pearsall, with 29 Pro Bowl and nine First-team and Second-team All-Pro selections among those players.

Opportunity Knocks

Pearsall has a massive opportunity in front of him to seize the WR1 reins in San Francisco going into his second season:

Deebo Samuel was traded to the Washington Commanders.
Aiyuk is still recovering from major knee injuries and is likely to miss games early in the season.
Jauan Jennings is unhappy with his contract situation and is dealing with a calf injury.
Demarcus Robinson is a 30-year-old journeyman facing a possible suspension stemming from a DUI case.
Jacob Cowing is a 5-8, 168-pound 2nd-year player who’s nursing a hamstring injury.

Will Pearsall answer the call and break out in Year 2? That’s what fantasy managers are hoping for. He’s exactly the kind of high-upside pick you want to target in the middle rounds. If Pearsall does step up, he’ll pay off that WR41 price tag and return solid dividends.

Draft Fade: Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (ADP 28.1, WR14)

This time last year, Marvin Harrison Jr. was getting gassed up by the fantasy community beyond belief. By the time most drafts rolled around, he was being selected early in Round 2, making him the highest-drafted rookie wide receiver in fantasy history. Everyone watched the 6-4, 205-pound phenom dominate at Ohio State for two seasons and envisioned instant fantasy stardom. With his talent and family pedigree, how could he not deliver?

Well, that’s not how it played out.

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s advanced metrics

Harrison Jr. had some nice games and produced a perfectly respectable rookie season by most standards. But that’s not what was expected from a player whose father is a Hall of Fame WR. It was an up-and-down rookie campaign, finishing with 62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns – totals that, interestingly enough, were almost identical to what his father posted during his own rookie season in 1996.

However, in our game, it wasn’t enough. Harrison Jr. finished as WR30 in PPR scoring, and his 11.6 points per game ranked a meager No. 39 among WRs – numbers that crushed fantasy title dreams for most managers.

This season, the cost of acquiring him is more palatable, with Harrison Jr. coming off the board in the third round. Managers are expecting a jump in production. Only natural for a talented prospect going into his second pro season, at his WR14 cost.

But why?

No Changes in the Desert

The situation remains largely the same in Arizona, other than Harrison bulking up this off-season and looking like Bane in The Dark Knight Rises. Offensive Coordinator Drew Petzing is still calling the plays, and in Weeks 1-9 last season, he was dead last in neutral pass rate at 42.4 percent. That number ticked up to 50.2 percent in Weeks 10-18, but that still placed them in the bottom half of the league.

Harrison Jr. also isn’t even the engine that drives the Arizona offense. That would be tight end Trey McBride, who had 111 catches for 1,146 yards in 2024. McBride also recently signed a massive 4-year, $76-million extension, tying him to the team until 2030.

So, unless Petzing changes his ways and starts deploring Harrison Jr. in a more efficient manner – rather than simply as a downfield vertical threat – or makes him the centerpiece of the offense, it’s hard to expect a massive leap. It’s nice that he was No. 6 in air yards among wide receivers, but he had almost no easy targets, and that reflects in his totals.

He should be better this season, but I’m just banking on other players in Harrison Jr.’s range. Unless you truly believe he’s about to explode, skip him. Click on Davante Adams, or lock in McBride to secure a top 3 TE before your league mates do.

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Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on X at @DynastyFFWolf.