3 Scorching Hot DFS Takes: Week 12

by Kyle Dvorchak ·

We hit on the core build of the Milly Maker winning lineup last week with the John Brown and Josh Allen stack. Coming off the best success of the season, can we repeat the feat or even hit on multiple takes? Let’s see what the advanced data and metrics have to say.

Kareem Hunt Outscores Nick Chubb by 5 Points

The Browns have placed Kareem Hunt in the role previously occupied by D’Ernest Johnson and then turned that role up to 11. In two games, Hunt has recorded 32.7 Weighted Opportunities, 16.3 per game. Nick Chubb averages 17.9 Weighted Opportunites per game. He has been targeted five times in two games with Hunt. Prior to those games, he had averaged four targets per contest.

Check out Kareem Hunt on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Baker Mayfield has also turned his season around in recent weeks. In his last three games, he hasn’t thrown an interception–he threw at least one in every prior game this season–and he’s only been sacked five times. As long as Mayfield isn’t ending drives by giving the ball away or taking copious amounts of sacks, he and the Browns pass-catchers should crush a dismal Miami defense.

Hunt is $2,500 cheaper than Chubb on DraftKings, but may end up being the better play regardless of price.

D.J. Moore Scores More Points Than Michael Thomas

Because he is a great player, evidenced by his 97th-percentile College Dominator Rating and 98th-percentile Breakout Age, D.J. Moore has been on a tear in recent weeks. In his past six outings, Moore has finished as a top-20 receiver five times. He has done this despite scoring exactly zero touchdowns over that span.


Over that same span, his volume would make even Michael Thomas blush. Moore has nine fewer targets but 162 more yards of Total Target Distance.

The Panthers have also gotten Moore increasingly involved in the red zone, which may help remedy his touchdown injustice. He has eight red-zone targets on the season, but five have come in the past three weeks.

This week, Moore and the Panthers are 8.5-point underdogs in the Superdome. Last week, Carolina lost by 26 to the Falcons. It was their second-worst loss of the season. Not so coincidentally, Moore set a career-high mark of 15 targets. If Vegas is correct in calling the Saints major favorites, he will be showered in targets once again.

Moore isn’t likely to outscore Thomas, but the game script does set up in his favor, and the difference between the two is much smaller than most realize. Because of this, pivoting from Thomas to Alvin Kamara and stacking him with Moore is a great tournament option.

Bonus: Marshon Lattimore did not practice Wednesday and is unlikely to play on Sunday. He probably couldn’t stop Moore anyways, but now there should be nothing holding Moore back.

Jacob Hollister is a Top-Five Tight End on the Main Slate

Any player in the same general vicinity as Russell Wilson is worth a look in DFS. Wilson is top-three in the NFL in:

Jacob Hollister Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Life is just better for the players Wilson graces with his passes.

This week, that’s will be Jacob Hollister. He has been on the field for 80-percent of the team’s snaps in back-to-back weeks with Will Dissly and Luke Willson sidelined. That puts him in line to see a similar workload against the Eagles in Week 12. He should have no problem making the most of this workload, being that he was actually a good tight end prospect coming out of Wyoming.

Hollister registered a 23.4-percent (73rd-percentile) College Dominator Rating and a 20.8 (61st-percentile) Breakout Age. He also has the athleticism to match his production, being above-average in every athletic measurement.

With the profile of a talented move tight end, and targets that are thrown from a demigod, Hollister is set up for a fantastic performance this week.