Leveraging the NFL’s most volatile players for fantasy football in Week 12

by Matthew M. Stevens ·

Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. Using matchup, volume and usage data combined with advanced stats, metrics and analytics to pinpoint the best matchups will yield the best ROI from volatile players. A key metric on PlayerProfiler.com, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. Throughout the season, this article will track fantasy football’s most – and least – volatile players and provide insight on how to deploy them.

Down the home stretch, the focus will be on players whose low ownership percentages make them speculative adds. Playing in leagues where the trade deadline has already passed makes it even more important for gamers to pinpoint upside waiver adds. Plenty of viable options exist based on advanced stats, metrics and analytics, such as Chris Conley,.

Chris Conley matters in fantasy football

Chris Conley leads the Jaguars pass-catchers with an 84.0-percent (No. 45 among qualified wide receivers) Snap Share. He ranks No. 47 at the position in PPR scoring, ahead of Mecole Hardman and Alshon Jeffery, behind T.Y. Hilton and Mike Williams. Yet he’s owned in less than 15-percent of leagues on the major platforms, according to FantasyPros. Conley averages 9.3 (No. 58) Fantasy Points Per Game, and has notched a pair of 20-plus point fantasy performances that each ranked in the top-10 for that week. In Nick Foles‘ first game back, Conley’s eight targets ranked second on the team behind D.J. Chark.

The Jaguars run three-WR sets 61.1-percent of the time. Dede Westbrook mans the slot, with Conley and Chark working as split ends. Conley often sees single coverage or a weaker defensive back as defenses focus on alpha dog Chark.

Total Target Distance signals potential production

Chris Conley‘s scoring oscillation from week to week contributes to his low ownership percentage. He’s scored five or fewer fantasy points in five games this season, but still averages nine fantasy points per game. That’s due to his two 20-plus fantasy point performances. He’s well worth a roster spot, the key lies in figuring out when to play him. His fluctuation distills out in the form of a 7.4 (No. 41) Weekly Volatility mark, which can be used to predict future success in connection with matchups and usage.


Certain key efficiency metrics also shine a light on Conley’s potential as a boom-or-bust field stretcher. He averages 17.9 (No. 8) yards per reception, 15.1 (No. 6) yards of Average Target Distance and has generated 830 (No. 26) yards of Total Target Distance. The latter metric, also known as Air Yards, proves highly predictive in identifying buy-low trade targets and free agent acquisitions. It’s no surprise that Conley’s YPR ranks so high, he sees targets that travel farther than those thrown to his peers. It’s part of his appeal in the form of big plays. It’s also part of his volatility equation. Deep passes generate a lower chance for success.

Chris Conley Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

While Conley has struggled with five (No. 6) drops, he has also out-performed his peers in similar situations, evidenced by his +6.9 (No. 34) Production Premium. The former third-round draft pick from Georgia has not lived up to the pro potential suggested by his 6-2, 213-pound frame. He’s still a freak athlete with a 130.8 (97th-percentile) SPARQ-x score who possesses otherworldly workout metrics.

Conley’s playoff schedule is the stuff of legend

Chris Conley draws a fantasy playoff stretch that includes matchups against Tampa Bay, Oakland and Atlanta. Tampa’s pass-funnel defense allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the second-most passing yards (290.9) per game. They also rank No. 1 in rush DVOA, hence the funnel. They’ve given up 40 explosive pass plays, defined as those plays going for 15 yards or more. That’s a nine-percent average rate of allowance. Oakland is exploited by the long ball even more than the Bucs, ranking No. 3 in explosive pass plays allowed with 48.

Check out Chris Conley on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

What does that mean for Conley’s outlook? He’s had at least one 15-yard reception in all but one game this season, with a long of 70. Given his lid-lifting speed and propensity for big plays, he’s set up to smash. His consistent usage and high ceiling make him an appealing play in Jacksonville’s remaining matchups during the fantasy football season.