High Value Touch DFS Index – Week 9

by Mark Kieffer · Value Plays

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

After surviving tough bye weeks in Week 7 and Week 8,  things aren’t looking much better on what looks to be a challenging slate with a lack of standout options.

Below are the top five values on the High Value Touch DFS Index that are on the Main Slate on Sunday, along with a few players that almost made the cut.

Top 5 Values:

5) Devontae Booker: $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 17.53 (No. 6 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 14.60 (No. 5 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.29 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 57.53 percent

Devontae Booker Game Log

Devontae Booker finds himself in a good position this week facing the No. 28 rush defense in Las Vegas as they allow 131.3 rushing yards per game. Last week, he played 92.7 percent of the snaps. In Week 7 he played 80.6 percent of the snaps. While his high value touches on a per game basis don’t stand out, he is tied for No. 20 in carries inside the 10-yard line per game and No. 11 in targets inside the 10-yard line per game, his price is low for the volume he is likely to receive with Saquon Barkley still out. He can be considered for both cash and GPPs this week.

4) James Robinson: $6,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 17.80 (No. 5 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 18.57 (No. 4 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.57 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.14 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 61.54 percent

James Robinson finds himself on this list this week. He is No. 9 in carries inside the 10-yard line per game, which is more than Ezekiel Elliott and comes a few hundred dollars cheaper than Elliott. Robinson has a heel injury and is questionable this week. Even if he is able to play, I am concerned with how effective he will be. I am likely fading him completely from my lineups. He might be someone I would consider in under 5 percent of my lineups if doing MME for GPPs.

3) Ezekiel Elliott: $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 21.57 (No. 3 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 16.32 (No. 3 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.43 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.43 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 85.06 percent

Ezekiel Elliott Opportunity Metrics

Ezekiel Elliott is No. 11 among running backs in carries inside the 10-yard line per game, No. 8 on the slate this Sunday. He is tied for No. 2 among running backs in targets inside the 10-yard line per game. Denver does have a good defense against running backs, however, due to the options on the slate, Elliott is both cash game and GPP viable this week due to the volume that Elliott receives, and the fact that the Cowboys are a strong favorite this week.

2) Mike Davis: $4,700 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 25.08 (No. 2 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 17.99 (No. 2 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.85 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.43 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 60.94 percent

Mike Davis‘ usage in the red zone and inside the 10-yard line has been decreasing, but so has his price, keeping him ranked high on this list (last week he was No. 2 and the previous he was No. 1). His carries and targets inside the 10-yard line have been dropping, along with his Red Zone Snap Share. At this point, he is not someone I would roster in any lineups as he showed last week that he can play a significant number of snaps and have a floor of just one point.

1) Zack Moss: $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 28.24 (No. 1 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 22.72 (No. 1 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.67 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.33 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 71.74 percent

Zack Moss Game Log

Zack Moss is No. 1 for the second straight week. He is tied for No. 5 among running backs in carries inside the 10-yard line with Nick Chubb. Moss is also No. 10 in targets inside the 10-yard line per game. He retains the No. 1 spot as he is getting high usage inside the 10-yard line and his pricing is essentially the same as it was last week. Moss struggled against an average run defense in Miami. What was encouraging, however, was he was on the field for 65.2 percent of the snaps, his second-highest amount of the season thus far. Facing Jacksonville, a game Buffalo should win easily, Moss could see high usage again. His floor is too low for the price to consider for cash but he has shown nearly 20 fantasy point upside and can be considered for GPPs.

Just Missed The Cut

DraftKings: Aaron Jones (18.35), JaMycal Hasty (17.19), James Conner (16.41), Darrel Williams (15.88)
FanDuel: Damien Harris (14.28), James Conner (14.26), Aaron Jones (13.78)

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Final Thoughts

Ezekiel Elliott and Devontae Booker can be used in both cash games and tournaments due to their usage, and I also like them in GPPs as well. Mike Davis and James Robinson are players I would not roster in any format this week. Zack Moss is a GPP only play for me, especially if playing 20 or more lineups. Overall there are a lack of running back values on this slate, and one will need to find the handful of running backs they can trust and hope they stay healthy throughout their game.

We will come back for Week 10 with an update to the index! Best of luck in Week 9!