Welcome to the Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Week 15! It is the fantasy football playoffs, and PlayerProfiler content creators are here to help you win big at the end of the NFL regular season. Today, we hit the weekend player prop market. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props of the week. As usual, I will review selections from the previous week. Then, I give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff. Fantasy gamers can do this a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Week 14 Review
We went after two 2-leg same-game stacks and cashed in on one of them thanks to an under parlay on one of the ugliest games of the slate. Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article.
Week 14 Sleeper play: T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 receptions | D’Andre Swift over 24.5 receiving yards
A projected shootout gave us the points we demanded as the Lions took control of this game 34-23. Minnesota tight end T.J. Hockenson did his job in a revenge game. He snagged six receptions on eight targets for 77 yards. However, D’Andre Swift‘s already-low usage saw another dip as he only participated in 33.8-percent of the Detroit offensive snaps and ran 35.9-percent of the routes. He drew four targets and received three catches for 18 yards. The Lions playing from ahead early, and having no issues feeding their deep threats, played a part in Swift taking a backseat in this committee backfield.
Week 14 Underdog play: Tom Brady under 1.5 passing touchdowns | George Kittle under 33.5 receiving yards
We read this game script pretty well. The 49ers were expected to play from ahead and rely on a safe offense and the run game. Tom Brady played from behind against a legitimate 49ers defense early. Despite ripping 55 pass attempts and playing late into the fourth quarter of a blowout, he couldn’t sniff the end zone multiple times. Brady finished the game with 253 passing yards and one touchdown with two interceptions.
The 49ers started third-string quarterback Brock Purdy and still dropped 35 points on the Buccaneers. Yet, even with Deebo Samuel missing a chunk of the game due to injury, tight end George Kittle was an afterthought of a conservative passing attack. He drew five targets, but his four catches totaled just 28 yards. It was Kittle’s third straight week with fewer than 30 yards.
- Week 14 Legs: 3-1; overall +0.50u
- YTD: 31-20-1; -1.00u
Week 15 Picks
If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our beginner’s guide article. Here, we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance. Again, we are going all-in on our three-leg play since it is strictly more profitable than taking the insurance method.
Both plays for Week 15 involve correlation, utilizing an effective strategy: get positively-correlated legs in a game for the same price as independent outcomes. Both of our legs are positively correlated with each other, so we’re making fewer bets to hit two legs than if we bet on two separate independent events. We will start with a two-leg Underdog play since that kicks off on Saturday afternoon.
Pick No. 1 (Underdog): Michael Pittman (IND) OVER 5.5 Receptions
We’re making a simple two-leg game stack here, shooting for offense off a Vegas total currently sitting at 47.5. This is the highest total on the Saturday slate. The first leg is just trusting in the alpha of an offense that will likely need to pass the ball playing from behind.
Minnesota is the worst defense in the NFL against outside wide receivers by yards allowed and explosive pass-play rate. However, the volume is safer for Pittman who ranks No. 1 in the NFL in route wins and No. 11 in targets. The Colts’ No. 1 receiver has recorded six+ receptions in seven of his 10 games with Matt Ryan at quarterback and all four of his games when the Colts score at least 20 points. Their implied team total in Week 15 is 22. This number continues getting juiced on sportsbooks over a -135 price. That makes this a great value pick ’em piece. I also made this my Best Bet of the Week on this week’s PlayerProfiler.com Writer’s Roundtable.
The #WritersRoundtable is back for Week 14 reactions and football predictions and props for Week 15.
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) December 15, 2022
Pick No. 2 (Underdog): Adam Thielen (MIN) OVER 4.0 Receptions
If the Vikings are to produce offense to live up to this game total, Thielen will have to be involved especially with No. 1 wideout Justin Jefferson getting shadowed by reputed cornerback Stephon Gilmore. The Colts’ secondary is banged up, and that leaves Isaiah Rodgers as Thielen’s matchup. That’s tasty because Rodgers’ -34.6 coverage rating on PlayerProfiler.com is one of the worst in the league.
Thielen has at least five receptions in six of his 13 games this season. Given the close spread, you should expect him to participate in most of the snaps. He has at least five receptions in five of his nine games with at least a 90-percent snap share and at least four receptions in seven of those games. So if we get hooked and he lands on exactly four, we get a push.
Pick No. 3 (Sleeper): Travis Kelce (KC) OVER 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns
This is extreme value as a pick ‘em leg because sportsbooks have the superstar tight end Travis Kelce to find the end zone at -195. Every touchdown that Kelce has scored this season has been a reception, so we’re getting an essentially-equivalent prop at pick ‘em price. The Texans are already below-average (No. 17) in pass DVOA as a defense, per Football Outsiders, and they will be further compromised in the secondary in Week 15 as Derek Stingley Jr., Texans cornerback, is out with an injury
Kelce is the clear No. 1 option on Kansas City and has scored in seven of his 13 games this season including four of six on the road. If you’re worried about a quick blowout causing the Chiefs to pass the ball less, that’s unwarranted. Kelce has scored a touchdown in six of the 10 games where the Chiefs have scored at least 24 and is averaging 1.1 touchdowns in those games. Their implied team total in Week 15 is a whopping 32 points.
Pick No. 4 (Sleeper): Samaje Perine (CIN) OVER 11.5 Rushing Yards
We are pairing this extreme-value Kelce find with a two-leg stack in the high-anticipated Bengals vs. Buccaneers contest. This game is projected in Cincinnati’s favor with the spread sitting at Bengals -3.5. If that line ends up being sharp, the Bengals should keep the ground-game volume high with their duo of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine.
Even though Mixon doesn’t hold an injury designation right now, Perine’s involvement hasn’t vanished all season. He’s gone over this number in five of the 10 games where Mixon has played.
Even in Mixon’s return last week, Perine participated in 43-percent of the Bengals’ offensive snaps and took four carries for 22 yards. The Tampa Bay rushing defense has been mediocre this season, and they have allowed the No. 12-highest yards per carry to running backs since Week 12 when they came off a bye. Perine can achieve this on just a couple of carries, which he should definitely get if the Bengals are playing from ahead in this game.
Pick No. 5 (Sleeper): Cade Otton (TB) OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards
If the game script we are assuming is correct and the Buccaneers have to play from behind at some point, they must throw passes. The talented rookie tight end has earned his volume recently, and this line is an overreaction to Cameron Brate being active.
Otton has dipped below a 40-percent route participation only twice since Week 4, and he has at least three targets in four of his last five games with Brate playing. He has also had at least 23 receiving yards in those four games. Since the Bengals came off a bye in Week 11, no other team has given up more catches to tight ends, and only one team has given up more receiving yards to tight ends.
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 3 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 2.5u if both picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find an edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.