The 2023 fantasy season is drawing to a close. Dynasty gamers are turning their attention to the offseason, which is prospecting season. It’s also time to make moves that shore up roster spots, including buying into assets that are values at each position. Below are seven early Dynasty Buys at the running back position for 2024.
Jaylen Warren is currently No. 6 in targets amongst running backs despite ranking No. 35 in Snap Share. If that Snap Share goes from 48-percent to 55-percent, then all of a sudden Warren is a solid RB2. Warren also ranked No. 6 in True Yards Per Carry, No. 1 in Juke Rate, No. 3 in Breakaway Run Rate, No. 7 in Yards Created, and No. 7 in Evaded Tackles amongst RBs. There is a legitimate chance Warren is the next great Steelers running back.
Najee Harris, by comparison, ranks No. 40 in True Yards Per Carry, No. 21 in Juke Rate, No. 8 in Breakaway Run Rate, No. 23 in Yards Created, and No. 12 in Evaded Tackles. Warren is the better running back even while Harris still has value to the Steelers.
Derrick Henry is scheduled to be a UFA in 2024, and Tyjae Spears is next in line to take on the workload. If the Titans elect not to select a running back on Day 1 or Day 2 of the Draft – and this is not a great RB class – then Spears could be a bell cow. Even if the Titans do select an RB, he is likely to lead the Titans backfield. Oh, and he’s No. 11 in targets amongst running backs this season while mostly serving as the backup RB to Derrick Henry.
This is all behind Derrick Henry… imagine what Spears could do as the RB1
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 27, 2023
This season Spears ranks No. 18 in True Yards Per Carry, No. 4 in Juke Rate and No. 5 in Breakaway Run Rate amongst running backs. Those are impressive metrics for a rookie running back and ultimately prove Spears is a really good football player.
I may be a glutton for punishment, but I believe Antonio Gibson has been on the bad side of a coaching staff that is likely going to be out the door in 2024. Gibson is due to be an UFA in 2024. The NFL will tell us what they think of Gibson, but this is the kind of low-risk, high-reward swing I like to take in Dynasty. Gibson ranks No. 16 in targets amongst running backs despite playing on just 44.9-percent of snaps for the Washington Commanders.
In 2023, Gibson ranks No. 6 in Yards Per Touch, No. 2 in Yards Created Per Touch, No. 10 in Juke Rate, and No. 26 in True Yards Per Carry amongst running backs. Gibson still possesses elite athleticism at the running back position. If he winds up with the right team in 2024, this could be a home run acquisition.
Some Dynasty gamers might discount what Devin Singletary was able to do down the stretch this season, but all he did was beat out Dameon Pierce for the starting RB job in Houston. He also put up three top-10 RB finishes Weeks 10, 11 and 15. There is a good chance the Texans add to their RB room in the draft, but once again, this isn’t a deep RB class. There is still a good chance Singletary is the team’s lead RB in 2024. His metrics aren’t great, but they aren’t terrible, either. Plain and simple, Singletary has been getting the job done.
This season, Singletary ranks No. 25 in True Yards Per Carry, No. 25 in Yards Per Touch, No. 27 in Breakaway Run Rate, No. 33 in targets (23 targets since Week 10), and No. 16 in Yards Per Reception. The usage post-Week 10 is very encouraging. Singletary has been grinding out useful performances for both the Texans and fantasy managers.
James Cook is the RB11 on the season and the RB14 on a per game basis, so it may be surprising that he is a buy, but this is a buy high scenario. Buffalo is going to need to establish some kind of a run game to help Josh Allen out as he ages. Cook is just 24 years old, and he is having what many consider a breakout season. He has over 1,000 rushing yards and over 400 receiving yards despite ranking No. 27 amongst running backs in Snap Share and just No. 20 amongst running backs in targets.
Cook may have to battle the Josh Allen scramble game to get targets, but the Bills are realizing what a talent James Cook truly is. He is a top-10 RB in Dynasty, but there are some Dynasty managers that won’t value him that highly. You should take advantage.
It may not be a popular take, but I think Kyren Williams is the real deal. He’s No. 9 in True Yards Per Carry amongst RBs, No. 12 in Yards Per Touch, No. 8 in Juke Rate, No. 23 in Breakaway Run Rate, No. 8 in Evaded Tackles, and even ranks No. 21 in targets amongst RBs. Again, this isn’t a loaded RB class in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Rams will likely bring someone in, but I don’t think it will be a Day 1 or Day 2 pick. Kyren Williams is their guy, and he’s proven it this year.
Bijan Robinson is a victim of bad coaching and of rookie hype. In no world should Robinson have been drafted as highly as he was in redraft. He is RB12 on the season and RB19 in fantasy points per game. Additionally, he’s No. 3 in targets amongst RBs, and I don’t see that number going down next season. Atlanta will likely have a new coaching staff next season, which is good news for ALL members of the Atlanta offense. The Falcons will likely have a new QB as well. All of this bodes well for Robinson in 2024.
Time to pick up these early dynasty buys for the 2024 season while they are gettable. Dynasty trading season and draft season are coming and dynasty gamers will be looking to stock up on draft picks in anticipation of their rookie drafts. These RBs are ones who are acquirable now, and whose value will increase in points scoring season.