Every best ball season, a great debate is waged over whether to lean into the uncertainty of landing spot and draft capital by selecting a rookie player or pivot to a more reliable — but less flashy — veteran selection. The best ball fantasy football draft dilemma is only augmented by the continued rise in rookie ADPs.
The best ball draft streets are wise these days. Rookie production typically peaks at the end of the season. These are the money weeks, when production matters the most. However, being too aggressive with rookie selections may prevent you from advancing to the money weeks altogether. Below are the top rookie selections on Underdog and the veterans they are going near in Underdog drafts. Who will you take: the Pro or the Prospect?
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Round 2: Jeremiyah Love (18.4 ADP) vs. Saquon Barkley (17.3 ADP)
The Pro
Saquon Barkley is coming off a disappointing 2025 campaign. In 2024, he averaged 21.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and finished as the RB2 in Best Ball Points Added with 236.2. But Barkley came crashing down to earth last season, averaging only 13.4 fantasy points per game and ranking 14th among running backs with 123.7 Best Ball Points Added.
A large part of Barkley’s poor season was due to a drastic decline in opportunities: He saw 65 fewer carries last season than in 2024, with only seven more targets. Saquon’s efficiency numbers also took a turn for the worse, as his yards per touch average fell from 6.0 to 4.5. This was fueled in large part by his number of Breakaway Runs falling in half from his epic 2024 season. Now entering his age-29 season, drafting Barkley in the second round is a bet on a bounce-back season, with his talent overcoming any age-correlated decline in production.
The Prospect
Jeremiyah Love is by far and away the RB1 of the 2026 draft class. He may not be on the same level as Barkley was as a prospect, but Love brings similar bell-cow upside to last year’s sixth overall selection, Ashton Jeanty. Love showcased his every-down skill set at Notre Dame, amassing a 10.5% target share (82nd Percentile) and a 31.7% Dominator Rating (79th Percentile). With logical landing spots inside the top 10, including the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs, Love can easily be an end of first round best ball pick after the NFL Draft.
The Pick
Ideally, I’m usually looking for flattened exposure inside the first four rounds of best ball fantasy drafts. However, the allure of Love’s anticipated post-NFL-Draft ADP spike is too hard to pass up. I will wait to take Barkley after Love’s ADP increases following the NFL Draft, hopefully flattening my exposures at better price points as drafting season continues. I also expect Barkley’s price to fall once landing spots solidify with free agency and the draft.
Round 5: Carnell Tate (53.9 ADP) vs. Jaylen Waddle (52.4 ADP)
The Prospect(s)
Carnell Tate is the leader of the pack of incoming rookie wide receivers in ADP. The speedy Ohio State product is anticipated to be a top 10 pick in this year’s NFL Draft. However, his place in this piece can also serve as a placeholder for Jordyn Tyson (ADP 59.1) and Makai Lemon (ADP 56.7), who have similarly situated ADPs. Like Tate, Tyson, and Lemon are projected to have excellent draft capital and offer tantalizing prospect profiles.
The difficulty in selecting these receivers is the uncertainty of their landing spots. For example, Tate has been mocked as high as fourth overall, where he would be Cam Ward’s WR1 with new Titans OC Brian Daboll scheming him up like Malik Nabers. But he has also recently been mocked to the Browns, which is a less-than-ideal landing spot due to the uncertainty surrounding the Browns’ starting quarterback.
The Pro
Veteran Jaylen Waddle also faces uncertainty around who will be throwing him the football. The Dolphins are poised to move off long-time starter Tua Tagovailoa after he was unceremoniously benched towards the end of the 2025 season. However, the Dolphins also just released Tyreek Hill, making Waddle their de facto WR1 at present. Waddle is coming off his best season since 2023 and saw over 1,306 Air Yards last year, finishing as the WR23 overall. While a top 24 finish is within the range of outcomes for Waddle this season, it does not appear that he brings upside for much else based on the uncertainty surrounding the Dolphins’ quarterback position.
The Pick
While Waddle is a safe floor option, the time to draft the rookie wide receivers, like Tate, is now! Tate’s ADP can soar with a landing spot on the Titans or Commanders. A good landing spot for Tate could vault him 15 picks up the draft board. Even if Tate goes to a subpar landing spot like the Browns — or the Dolphins to join Waddle — his ADP should not sink that far. He is already grouped with wide receivers in good offenses with ambiguous target pecking orders or in likely bad offenses … like Waddle.
Round 9: Xavier Worthy (99.6 ADP) vs. Denzel Boston (105.3 ADP)
The Pro
Xavier Worthy had an abysmal 2025 season, thanks in part to a shoulder injury which almost cost him his season. Worthy was able to play through the pain but averaged a meager 6.4 half PPR fantasy points per game as the WR59 overall. Following teammate Rashee Rice‘s return from suspension in Week 7, Worthy only averaged five targets per game and failed to crest double digits in half-PPR fantasy points in any contest. He will look to bounce back to the player fans saw in last year’s Super Bowl against the Eagles. However, it may take some time for Worthy to hit his stride with Patrick Mahomes recovering from a torn ACL to start the season.
The Prospect
Like Worthy, Denzel Boston is projected to go near the end of Round 1 in the NFL Draft. He profiles as a downfield, boundary, jump-ball receiver, similar to Michael Pittman. This type of profile may make him a “better in Best Ball” type of receiver for his rookie season. With landing spots like the Patriots, 49ers, and Bills in play, Boston’s ADP could see a huge spike following the NFL Draft.
The Pick
While Boston’s ADP is likely to rise after the draft, I personally have been selecting more of Worthy! Even if Boston lands in a great spot for his rookie season, he is likely going to be in a similar situation to Worthy. Both players will likely be the secondary target-earners on elite offenses. Worthy, however, has Patrick Mahomes throwing him the football. While Mahomes and Worthy have to click downfield, when that happens, I want him on my team. In short, Worthy’s upside in the Chiefs’ offense exceeds the likely best-case scenario outcome for Denzel Boston in year one.
Round 12: Fernando Mendoza (132.9 ADP) v. C.J. Stroud (136.3 ADP)
The Prospect
Fernando Mendoza‘s selection as the first overall pick by the Raiders seems like it is written in a darker pen with each passing day. He appears likely to join a Raiders passing attack that is centered around former first-rounder and elite tight end Brock Bowers. While the current assumption is that Mendoza goes to the Raiders first overall, he will likely see an ADP spike once the seemingly inevitable becomes reality.
The Pro
C.J. Stroud is coming off a meh statistical season. He was the QB21 overall and posted a career low 423 pass attempts. He also scored a career low 19 passing touchdowns, which is a number that should rise this coming season with Tank Dell returning to the fold and Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel entering their year two seasons. Stroud can easily bounce back to provide top 10 overall fantasy quarterback production as he did in his rookie season.
The Pick
I’ve been leaning toward taking Mendoza over Stroud simply because of the rookie’s anticipated ADP bump. However, both make for fine selections with back-door stacking options available. If I’ve already drafted Nico Collins or Jayden Higgins, I will likely select Stroud. If I went with Bowers or Jeanty early, I will take Mendoza. As long as your roster construction makes sense, both are fine picks at their ADPs.
Round 12/13: Kenyon Sadiq (143.4 ADP) vs. Juwan Johnson (147.7 ADP):
The Prospect
Tight end prospect Kenyon Sadiq was the focal point of the 2025 Oregon offense, leading the Ducks in receptions. He has the profile of a potential volume hog at the next level with a short college ADOT similar to Tyler Warren. He is routinely mocked at the beginning of the back half of the first round. Landing spots in the NFC South with the Bucs and Panthers make for the most intriguing scenarios.
The Pro
Juwan Johnson seemingly flies under the radar every year. Last season was his best in the NFL, finishing as the TE10 overall. His 28.8 Best Ball Points Added was 17th among tight ends. He makes for a steady veteran option and a nice back-door stack to his quarterback Tyler Shough.
The Pick
Who I take here usually depends on what I have done at the tight end position thus far and what I anticipate doing later. If I want to select a different rookie tight end like Eli Stowers, I will usually bypass Sadiq. If I have a veteran tight end rostered already, I will usually look to snag Sadiq with the hopes of him hitting his upside later on in the season. Both players make for solid selections depending on the build of your roster.
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