In most fantasy football leagues, the playoffs begin in Week 15, meaning we are in crunch time, folks! Week 12 was another typical week in the NFL. We had some upsets, some games that were much closer than anticipated, and just a few that went more or less as expected. As for my Week 12 Start/Sit article, I had a much better week, batting 1.000 on the onesie positions, with mixed results at RB and WR, faring better on the “Sit” side of things at those positions.
As managers continue to seek an edge in pursuit of their league’s last playoff spots, let’s dive into Week 13, which features four games before Sunday, so remember to set your lineups early!
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Quarterback
Start: Bo Nix
Bo Nix is currently the fantasy QB10 on the season, essentially picking up where he left off after breaking out as a rookie. His chemistry with head coach Sean Payton seems to be working, as their team sits atop the AFC West at 9-2. The former Duck ranks fourth in pass attempts and Money Throws, as well as first in air yards and deep ball attempts.
Bo Nix‘s Athletic Profile
Fresh off their Week 12 bye, the Denver Broncos travel to Summerfield, Maryland, to play the Commanders on Sunday Night. The Commanders have been generous to opposing quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Nix, for his part, is 4-1 in games after 7 p.m. His 4.5 carries per game, along with Denver’s sheer passing volume, is enough to solidify his floor. But the juicy Sunday night matchup, in which he’ll look to add to his 18 passing touchdowns, presents a significant boom opportunity.
Honorable Mention: Jacoby Brissett
Sit: Brock Purdy
It was quite the underwhelming Week 12 for Brock Purdy. After posting a nice 19.3 fantasy point outing on the road against the Cardinals in his first game back from injury, he followed it up with an absolute stinker (7.32 fantasy points) at home to the Carolina Panthers. The fourth-year signal-caller was errant early, seemingly off the mark on any pass that wasn’t a swing pass to Christian McCaffrey or a short toss on a naked bootleg to George Kittle. The result was a stat line of 23/32 passing attempts for 193 yards, with one touchdown and three interceptions.
In Week 13, the NFL sack leader, Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns will increase the difficulty for the former “Mr. Irrelevant” when the 49ers take the field in Cleveland on Sunday. Not surprisingly, given their rank of No. 2 in team sacks (42), the Browns allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. This is not the “get-right” game Purdy managers are looking for. Let’s leave him on the bench this week.
Honorable Mention: Daniel Jones
Running Back
Start: Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren was able to gain 68 yards on 18 carries and also scored a touchdown in the Steelers’ Week 12 at Chicago. That was a neutral matchup, in which Warren saw 50% of the snaps, as did fellow running back Kenneth Gainwell, who outscored Warren last week in PPR formats, having caught all six of his targets, along with 92 rushing yards on his ten carries.
While both backs are capable of running and pass-catching, it’s pretty clear that the coaching staff in Pittsburgh (I’m guessing mostly Arthur Smith) has pretty clearly defined roles for these guys. Warren has 141 rush attempts compared to Gainwell’s 71. The inverse is true when speaking of targets, where Gainwell has 48 and Warren has 28. This disparity hints at who we should lean on in Week 13.
The Steelers will host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at 4:25 ET. At first glance, it’s a good matchup for both running backs, as the Bills allow the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. Looking a little closer, however, when it comes to receiving yards allowed to running backs, the Bills are on the other end of the list, allowing the third-least. Look for the Steelers to lean on their primary runner, while Kenny G serves as more of a change-of-pace back this week.
Honorable Mentions: RJ Harvey, Devin Neal
Sit: Kenneth Walker
Finally, K9 is out-snapping Zach Charbonnet! Last week, he saw 63% of snaps compared to Charbonnet’s 31% (yes, the latter still scored a touchdown). However, six of Kenneth Walker‘s 13.1 PPR points from Week 12 came on his three receptions for 30 yards.
The Seahawks’ Week 13 opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, have allowed the sixth-fewest receptions to opposing running backs and the fewest receiving yards. In terms of fantasy points per game, they are a more neutral matchup, hinting at a “throwback” week, where we see more of an even split in the Seattle backfield.
Walker is ranked outside of the RB2 range this week here at PlayerProfiler, at RB28. Chances are, if you have KW3 on your squad, you’re having to play him. Let’s manage expectations this week if that is the case, and look for upside elsewhere in our lineups.
Honorable Mentions: Tyrone Tracy Jr., D’Andre Swift
Wide Receiver
Start: Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs took a few to get going this year, and in fact, he hasn’t reached a snap-share higher than 69% at any point this season. In the two games before last week, however, Diggs earned eight and eleven targets, respectively, and, generally speaking, he has become more involved in the Patriots’ game plans as the season goes on.
It was apparent early in the game last week that New England would feature the tight end position, which has been a glaring weakness in the Cincinnati defense. Subsequently, folks depending on the 10th-year wideout were left wanting. But some of Diggs’ metrics give cause for optimism: His yards per route run of 2.36 is good for 12th in the league, and he ranks fourth in Expected Points Added (EPA), with a value of +61.
Stefon Diggs‘ Explosive Rating
The Pats’ Week 13 matchup, in which they host the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, hints at a different story for Diggs. The Giants have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and the second-most points overall. They also rank second in targets and yards allowed through the air to wideouts. Look for second-year quarterback Drake Maye to continue the trend of exposing his opponent’s weakness, which, this week, is defending wide receivers.
Honorable Mentions: Troy Franklin, Xavier Worthy
Sit: Michael Pittman
Michael Pittman has been great this year, and enters this week as the WR10 on the season in PPR scoring. Through his eleven games played, he has only posted a single-digit fantasy score on three occasions. Sitting him might be a little extreme, but I want to point out this matchup, and our subsequent ranking of him this week, all the way down at WR28. The Houston Texans have allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers, and they will give the fifth-year veteran wideout a heavy dose of their top cornerback, Derek Stingley.
Pittman will be part of many Start/Sit questions this week, so I want folks to manage their expectations for him; he is not much more than a flex play. Given his target share (22.6%), he could come through with a respectable floor performance, but Pittman is a fade for me this week, regardless.
Honorable Mentions: Deebo Samuel, Tre Tucker
Tight End
Start: Juwan Johnson
Juwan Johnson is the TE6 (PPR) heading into Week 13, and he has been damn steady aside from his three-game skid in Weeks 4 through 6, when he posted his only single-digit outputs of the season. The veteran tight end has withstood the quarterback change and has continued to produce with rookie Tyler Shough.
Juwan Johnson‘s Advanced Opportunity Metrics
Week 13 presents yet another opportunity for Shough to utilize his reliable tight end as the Saints head south to play the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. The Dolphins are a great matchup for the undrafted former Oregon Duck, allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Let’s get Johnson and his 24.7% Dominator Rating into our lineups for Week 13.
Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews
Sit: Colston Loveland
Colston Loveland has reached seven targets just once this season, in Week 9, when he gashed Cincinnati for 29.8 PPR points. Since then, he has eclipsed 50 receiving yards once (Week 10), and he has caught just one touchdown, which came last week versus the Steelers.
Week 13 has Loveland and the Bears traveling to Philly to take on the Eagles on Black Friday. The Eagles have been stingy against tight ends, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. The Bears will look to attack Philly at their weak spot in the secondary, which is the cornerback position. This would be either the corner opposite Quinyon Mitchell on the outside, or the nickel back when Cooper DeJean lines up outside. Keep Loveland on the bench for this one if you can.
Happy Thanksgiving!
That’s all for this week. I thought heading into this article that I might highlight some more of the island games leading into the weekend. But, as with the typical Thursday night games we get throughout the season, perhaps it is best to avoid some of the trickier matchups as teams throw off their schedules to accommodate the holiday schedule.
As always, thank you for reading, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!
Feel free to hit me up on X, Instagram, or Bluesky to let me know if you agree or disagree, or to share your own lineup dilemmas!
Many Successes,
Kyle
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