PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Wolf Trelles-Heard picks one draft value and one fade from the AFC South.
It’s August so that means redraft season is fully upon us. I wanted to highlight some current values across the fantasy landscape as people prepare for their home and work drafts. I’ll be going one division at a time, discussing the AFC South today, and highlighting one player I think is a draft value and one I believe should be faded at cost. For this series, I’ll be using Underdog’s ADP as a baseline until more drafts take place and we get a clearer picture of how players are coming off the board.
Hope you find this info useful and include it in your draft prep to help dominate your leagues.
Also, check out the one draft value and one fade from the NFC North, NFC East, NFC South, NFC West, AFC North, and AFC East.
Draft Value: Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans (ADP 54.7, WR31)
What do Courtland Sutton and Terry McLaurin have in common? Both are veteran wideouts who followed up solid but unspectacular WR3 campaigns in 2023 with breakthrough seasons in 2024 once they finally got competent quarterback play from rookie first-round picks.
Calvin Ridley is hoping to follow that same script this year.
Calvin Ridley’s Advanced Metrics
Like Sutton and McLaurin last year, Ridley gets a new signal caller this season in the form of No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. The new face of the Titans has a cannon for an arm and isn’t afraid to use it. Per FantasyPros, Ward ranked no. 4 in yards per attempt and no. 12 in big-time throw rate with the Hurricanes last year.
That gunslinger mindset pairs perfectly with Ridley’s game. Last season, Ridley was one of the league’s premier deep threats. Check his stats below:
Calvin Ridley’s Deep Ball Metrics
He also ranked no. 1 in unrealized air yards with 1097 and no. 2 in explosive plays among all WRs. The problem was the targets – they were awful coming from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph. Ridley ranked no. 86 in target quality rating and no. 97 in catchable target rate. He saw 120 targets but only came down with 64 because so many were off the mark. Those metrics should improve with Ward under center.
Like DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh, Ridley is the unquestioned alpha in his WR room. Behind him is a hodgepodge of veterans like Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson entering their first year with the Titans, and a cluster of rookies: Elic Ayomanner, Chimere Dike, and undrafted free agent Xavier Restrepo, who played with Ward in Miami.
Last season was as inefficient as it could get for Ridley. Even though he was WR28 overall in PPR, his 11.7 points per game was a career low and ranked no. 36 at the position. He’s basically the AFC South version of Marvin Harrison Jr. when it comes to fantasy output, except you can get him two or three rounds later.
A big play waiting to happen, Ridley is an excellent WR3 target for managers in rounds 5-6. His spike weeks swing matchups and at a WR31 price tag you’re essentially drafting him at his floor. Because Ridley carries the reputation of an “old, boring vet” some in your draft may let him slide. If he’s there when you’re on the clock in that range, don’t make the same mistake.
Draft Fade: Joe Mixon, Houston Texans (ADP 71.9, RB25)
This one comes down to personal draft philosophy more than anything else, but I’m not touching Joe Mixon this year. I try to avoid already-injured players as much as possible. Fantasy football is already a game full of luck and variance. Why make it harder by spending a pick on an aging running back who’s spent most of the offseason in a walking boot?
And that’s a shame, because Mixon was pretty solid last year. In fact, 2024 looked like a late-career resurgence for Mixon in his first season with the Texans. After a rocky start that included a high ankle sprain and three missed games, he came back in Week 6 and strung together several RB1 performances all the way up to the team’s Week 14 bye.
Joe Mixon’s Advanced Metrics
In all, Mixon averaged 4.2 yards per carry (second-best of his career), piling up 1325 total yards and 12 touchdowns. He finished as RB9 in PPG with a 17.2 average. The advanced metrics were strong as well:
- No. 2 in Dominator Rating
- No. 10 in PlayerProfiler’s Explosive Rating
- No. 11 in breakaway runs
- No. 12 in evaded tackles
- No. 13 in yards created
But that was then. This year is shaping up differently. Mixon is currently sitting on the non-football injury list dealing with a nagging foot injury. He missed all of minicamp and it appears as if he’ll miss all of training camp as well. Texans say they’ll “re-evaluate him closer to the season,” but that doesn’t sound promising, does it?
Even if he does heal up enough to return in time for the regular season, there are plenty of other red flags:
Offensive Line Woes
Once again, the offensive line is expected to be one of the worst in football. Last season, the O-line did Mixon and QB C.J. Stroud no favors. Mixon had 58 runs stuffed – the second-most in the league – and Stroud was sacked 52 times. Making matters worse, they traded away five-time Pro Bowl OT Larry Tunsil to the Commanders.
In an attempt to improve things they brought reinforcements but it’s a patchwork group of veterans led by Laken Tomlinson and Cam Robinson. The team did spend a 2nd-round pick on OT Aireontae Ersery out of Minnesota, but the rookie may not make much of an impact this season.
Projections are ugly for 2025. PFF ranks Houston’s O-line dead last (no. 32), and PlayerProfiler has them at no. 31 going into the season.
New Bodies in RB Room
Another hurdle for Mixon: more competition for touches. The team signed veteran Nick Chubb in free agency and traded up to select USC’s Woody Marks in the 4th round of the NFL Draft.
Chubb, 29, is coming off back-to-back season-ending injuries and averaged a career-low 3.3 yards per carry last year in Cleveland. Still, he’s been the one taking starter reps in camp with Mixon sidelined.
Marks could bring some juice to the backfield if he earns snaps. He posted 1,133 rushing yards, 47 catches, and nine total touchdowns for USC last season and has a skillset to be a nice change-of-pace or third-down back.
And then there’s the wear and tear. Mixon has logged 2,135 career touches, second only to Derrick Henry among active RBs. Add in playoff games, and that number balloons to 2,313. That kind of mileage eventually takes its toll, and we may be seeing that unfold currently.
Sure, Mixon’s price is tumbling, but he’s still going off the board in late round 6 or early round 7. That’s far too risky for me. With the way this injury has lingered, it could affect Mixon – and his managers – all season. Don’t sink your championship chances hoping he bounces back soon. Take Ricky Pearsall or Sam LaPorta in this range instead.
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Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on X at @DynastyFFWolf.
