After securing a four-year, $114 million extension on the heels of a 51.8-percent Air Yards Share, Alec Pierce faces risk of missing regular-season time following a second PRP injection for his delayed ankle recovery. Indianapolis committed WR1 money to a young player who commanded an 18.0-percent Target Share while trading away Michael Pittman.
Even after being activated, Pierce will require several weeks to gain full confidence in his lower body. Meanwhile, fellow starter Josh Downs is also dealing with a minor groin injury. When Downs returns, he and tight end Tyler Warren will be first in line absorb the vacated target volume during Pierce’s absence. Pierce is a sell and Downs and Warren are buys based on this injury alone. Even the forgotten Ashton Dulin‘s ADP is starting to creep up across all fantasy football draft formats.
UPDATE: Colts general manager Chris Ballard insists that Alec Pierce did not receive a second PRP injection. Stay tuned for the next episode of Anklegate.
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Ashton Dulin has "never ...
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Ashton Dulin has seen the ...
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Ashton Dulin (chest) won't...
Indianapolis wide receiver Josh Downs was spotted on the sideline in street clothes during practice with a groin injury, raising immediate concern for his early-season status. Coming off a season where he commanded a 23.6-percent Target Rate and a 70.5-percent Slot Rate, any missed time impacts a player heavily reliant on volume in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
The team expects an official update soon, but a soft-tissue setback this close to Week 1 threatens his projection as a high-floor fantasy asset. Downs remains a very strong WR pick in dynasty league start-ups as well as high-stakes and best ball formats.
Shane Steichen and the Colts front office are obscuring the timeline while Alec Pierce recovers from off-season ankle surgery. Coming off a campaign where he produced a 51.8-percent Air Yards Share (No. 1) and 21.3 Yards Per Reception (No. 2), a standard 4-to-6 month recovery window places his Week 1 status in doubt.
Fantasy managers drafting him as a WR3 are absorbing substantial risk until he logs actual practice reps. Pierce is falling each week in PlayerProfiler’s redaft rankings for 2026.
Colts GM Chris Ballard followed up the roster move by confirming that Pierce is a “week or two” away from returning to practice. Grading this assessement on the typical coach/gm speak curve, expect Pierce to miss most of camp.
Signing him to a fully guaranteed four-year contract this offseason, the Colts had grand plans to move Pierce into a featured role following Michael Pittman‘s departure. Pierce’s grip on this role is now tenuous as he needs reps to build rapport with quarterback Daniel Jones.
Alec Pierce remaining on the active/PUP list also opens the door for a Reserve/PUP stint, which would cost him the first four games of the regular season. While he flexed deep-threat dominance with a 19.0 Average Target Distance (No. 2) and a 51.8-percent Air Yards Share (No. 1) last season, missing early action trends him toward the wrong side of questionable for Week 1.
Draft Pierce with extreme caution in the middle rounds as an upside bench option while monitoring his recovery timeline over the coming weeks. Pierce is PlayerProfiler’s WR41 in fantasy football redraft formats, and he will continue to leak value with every day he remains on the PUP.
Josh Downs is currently Indy’s go-to wide receiver and projects to hog targets early in the season. With Alec Pierce working with the medical staff instead of training, Downs is earning outside snaps after he commanded a 23.6-percent Target Rate last season.
While Downs is teed up to be a target monster in 2026, Moore also reported that Pierce “is expected to receive close to double the number of targets than a season ago, when he received a career-high 84.” However, Pierce earned a mere 18.0-percent Target Share and an 18.3-percent Target Rate last season and is actively recovering from offseason ankle surgery.
Moore’s target share prediction math does not add up. The facts on the ground suggest Downs will be the Colts’ target leader, and Indianapolis management is practicing cognitive dissonance after signing an injured Pierce to a $114 contract. Savvy fantasy managers will be drafting Downs with confidence in best ball, dynasty and seasonal leagues while taking a wait-and-see approach on Pierce in fantasy football.
The departure of Michael Pittman vacates 111 targets and a 21.0-percent Target Share (No. 42) from the Indianapolis passing game. This leaves massive opportunity for Alec Pierce, who is coming off a massive 1,593 Air Yards (No. 3) season but is in danger of starting the season on the PUP. Beyond Pierce and the slot-bound Josh Downs, who posted a modest 8.5 Fantasy Points Per Game (No. 51), Ashton Dulin is next in line for targets from the Colts shallow wide receiver room.
Ashton Dulin just needs to hold off Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Laquon Treadwell to potentially open the season as the starter in 2-receiver sets(!), depending on Pierce’s ankle surgery recovery timeline. Dulin is a sneaky add in the deepest dynasty and best ball fantasy football formats.
