Colts GM Chris Ballard followed up the roster move by confirming that Pierce is a “week or two” away from returning to practice. Grading this assessement on the typical coach/gm speak curve, expect Pierce to miss most of camp.
Signing him to a fully guaranteed four-year contract this offseason, the Colts had grand plans to move Pierce into a featured role following Michael Pittman‘s departure. Pierce’s grip on this role is now tenuous as he needs reps to build rapport with quarterback Daniel Jones.
Alec Pierce remaining on the active/PUP list also opens the door for a Reserve/PUP stint, which would cost him the first four games of the regular season. While he flexed deep-threat dominance with a 19.0 Average Target Distance (No. 2) and a 51.8-percent Air Yards Share (No. 1) last season, missing early action trends him toward the wrong side of questionable for Week 1.
Draft Pierce with extreme caution in the middle rounds as an upside bench option while monitoring his recovery timeline over the coming weeks. Pierce is PlayerProfiler’s WR41 in fantasy football redraft formats, and he will continue to leak value with every day he remains on the PUP.
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (ankle) has ...
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (ankle) put ...
For the first time in his career, Indianapolis Colts wide ...
Daniel Jones is officially cleared for all football activities following his Week 14 Achilles tear, keeping him firmly on track for the season opener. Before going down, he operated as a legitimate efficiency engine, averaging 20.0 Fantasy Points Per Game to rank as the fantasy QB5 through his first 10 contests.
While he admits to mentally processing the recovery during practice reps, his 71.7-percent True Completion Percentage indicate that the baseline talent remains locked in once he fully trusts his lower body. Representing the ultimate inexpensive QB upside, Jones is a smash at his current fantasy football best ball and dynasty league draft position.
Josh Downs is currently Indy’s go-to wide receiver and projects to hog targets early in the season. With Alec Pierce working with the medical staff instead of training, Downs is earning outside snaps after he commanded a 23.6-percent Target Rate last season.
While Downs is teed up to be a target monster in 2026, Moore also reported that Pierce “is expected to receive close to double the number of targets than a season ago, when he received a career-high 84.” However, Pierce earned a mere 18.0-percent Target Share and an 18.3-percent Target Rate last season and is actively recovering from offseason ankle surgery.
Moore’s target share prediction math does not add up. The facts on the ground suggest Downs will be the Colts’ target leader, and Indianapolis management is practicing cognitive dissonance after signing an injured Pierce to a $114 contract. Savvy fantasy managers will be drafting Downs with confidence in best ball, dynasty and seasonal leagues while taking a wait-and-see approach on Pierce in fantasy football.
After vacuuming up a team-high 112 targets to match franchise legend Marvin Harrison as the only rookies in Indianapolis history to lead the team in receiving, Tyler Warren is refining his route-running execution to handle an expanded focal role following the departure of Michael Pittman. A usage spike would secure his high-floor projection as a top-tier fantasy tight end, especially with Alec Pierce‘s return date unknown.
Warren’s projectable ceiling climbs even further as starting quarterback Daniel Jones hits his recovery milestones from an Achilles tear to anchor this vertical attack by training camp. Given the the friendly target share dynamics, Warren is a true threat to Trey McBride to be the fantasy TE2 in 2026.
The departure of Michael Pittman vacates 111 targets and a 21.0-percent Target Share (No. 42) from the Indianapolis passing game. This leaves massive opportunity for Alec Pierce, who is coming off a massive 1,593 Air Yards (No. 3) season but is in danger of starting the season on the PUP. Beyond Pierce and the slot-bound Josh Downs, who posted a modest 8.5 Fantasy Points Per Game (No. 51), Ashton Dulin is next in line for targets from the Colts shallow wide receiver room.
Ashton Dulin just needs to hold off Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Laquon Treadwell to potentially open the season as the starter in 2-receiver sets(!), depending on Pierce’s ankle surgery recovery timeline. Dulin is a sneaky add in the deepest dynasty and best ball fantasy football formats.
Alec Pierce secured a four-year, $114 million contract extension after recording a 51.8-percent Air Yards Share and averaging 21.3 Yards Per Reception last season. Now he faces a tight 4-6 month recovery timetable following ankle surgery per Mike Chappell. This timeline puts Pierce’s availability for the start of the season very much in jeopardy.
While Indy’s deep threat rehabs, Josh Downs and Tyler Warren are executing reps on the field to command early chemistry in this passing game. Pierce is now set up for a slow start to the season and will be a polarizing buy-low candidate as the season goes along.
