NFL

Last season, the Dallas Cowboys placed the franchise tag ($31.41 million) on Dak Prescott for him to prove himself as a franchise quarterback. A horrific broken ankle shortened his season. So why did the team take a perceived risk on a player coming off a catastrophic injury? Despite my slight mathematical error, the Cowboys could not afford the cap hit of a franchise tag on Prescott in 2021.

Want to see the fantasy football impact of a franchise quarterback? Look no further than the team’s top two pass-catchers last season, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. In Prescott’s five starts, Cooper finished with four top-24 wide receiver performances, and Lamb finished with three top-24 wide receiver performances. Both played in all 16 games; in 11 games without Prescott, Cooper had four top-24 wide receiver performances and Lamb only had one top-24 wide receiver performance.

To those familiar with college football, it should come as no surprise that Saquon Barkley sits atop the historical Breakout Ratings for RBs. A three-year starter in college, who had over 1,000 yards on the ground each season, brought in 54 passes for 632 yards as a junior, and ran a 4.40 flat in the 40-yard Dash. The 99th percentile SPARQ-x athlete and No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Yes, that guy is No. 1 all-time.

Certainly a bet on upside when Washington selected him in the NFL Draft’s third round, my modeling efforts found the Antonio Gibson pick to be savvy given that he has a slightly higher Breakout Rating than the average third-round pick. The Breakout Finder recognized his potential were he to land in a starting role, and he definitely impressed in Year 1, recording over 1,000 total yards and 11 rushing TDs.

Not all Unrealized Air Yards are created equal. In 2020, Calvin Ridley led all qualified wide receivers with 968 Unrealized Air Yards. The player with the second-most (965) was Denver Broncos rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy. He logged 1,536 (No. 6) Air Yards thanks in no small part to his steady diet of 25 (No. 7) Deep Targets. Why the huge disparity between these two players? Putting it mildly, quarterbacks matter.

A player posting a high share of Unrealized Air Yards is not necessarily a player to immediately shy away from. A target is, after all, earned by that player being good at catching the ball. That is why Jerry Jeudy is a bounceback candidate in 2021, especially if the Broncos can upgrade their quarterback. Calvin Ridley finished as the WR4 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 with a quarterback who was not among the elite in terms of accuracy.

With Hunter Henry leaving in free agency, the tight end room is looking scarce for the first time in almost 20 years for the Chargers. Pairing Kyle Pitts with Justin Herbert is like pairing Philip Rivers with Antonio Gates. It just works.

With ongoing rumors of distrust in Drew Lock leaking from the Broncos organization, a trade is on the horizon. Denver leaps into the No. 2 pick hoping to finally put their quarterback issues to rest after five long years.

Carson Wentz is a value in dynasty leagues because the perception of him is that he’s damaged goods. Those who have him in dynasty should hold. His value is the lowest it’s been in his career. He has one year in a better situation to turn his NFL career around. If struggles in 2021, it doesn’t change the value that cratered in 2020. But if he puts up a solid campaign in his age-29 season, then he regains significant trade value.

Don’t worry about a drop-off in Miles Sanders’ receiving volume; his 4.33 targets per game were identical in games that Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts started. After a disappointing 2020 season, he’s set to be a high-volume running back with better rushing opportunities provided by his run-threat quarterback, while still being involved in the passing game.

Carolina is a team with many needs, but also an exciting young core of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Second-year head coach Matt Rhule makes a splash by selecting national champion and Davey O’Brien Award winner Mac Jones. He played an outstanding senior season against an all-SEC schedule and further displayed his talents in front of Rhule and company at the Senior Bowl, which was the deciding factor for Jones over Trey Lance.

For two years, Terry McLaurin has taken the best of what opposing defenses could throw at him and the worst of what the WFT could provide him at QB, and has still come out the other end as a legitimate number one receiving threat. With the best QB prospects off the board, Washington finally adds another receiver to relieve some pressure from Scary Terry in the dynamic Rondale Moore.

According to playwright Silva Semerciyan, witches can’t be burned. The same could be said in 2020 for Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander. The No. 1 corner on our rankings, Alexander led the position with a 0.0-percent Burn Rate last season. Teams couldn’t find a way to beat him deep, but they also discovered that he wasn’t in the mood to give up much in the short to intermediate areas of the field either.

Jalen Ramsey held a host of the NFL’s best wide receivers in check throughout the season. In two games matched up against DeAndre Hopkins, he was targeted 20 times, allowing 10 receptions for 76 yards combined. He was No. 7 among qualified cornerbacks with a mere 6.0 Yards per Target allowed, while his 10.1 Yards per Reception Allowed was the eighth-best mark. These marks made him a destroyer of fantasy production.

The story to watch for Patrick Mahomes entering the Super Bowl is his offensive line protection. He ended the 2020 season with an 83.9-percent (No. 21 among qualified quarterbacks) Protection Rate, the second straight time he’s finished outside the top-20. His 43.1-percent (No. 11) Pressured Completion Percentage is a slight dip from his 44.5-percent (No. 5) mark in 2019, but without Eric Fisher, the Chiefs will struggle to limit pressure to Mahomes.

Leonard Fournette, aka “Playoff Lenny,” is a prime example of why Matt Kelley doesn’t take L’s in fantasy football. During the season, Fournette’s 66.5 (No. 54) Run Blocking Efficiency rating contributed to his porous 3.5 (No. 65) True YPC average. With improved production on the ground this postseason, will he continue to see a 43.3-percent (No. 18) Base Front Carry Rate?

While Irv Smith will not see that many targets in a slow offense that averaged 34.8 (No. 25) Team Pass Plays per Game, his 25.0-percent (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Red Zone Target Share was higher than all but four of last year’s top 12 tight ends. Kyle Rudolph will vacate 37 (No. 39) targets when he is released. With 70 targets a reasonable expectation in 2021, and provided he continues to stay involved in the red zone, Smith will become the latest late-round, league-winning tight end.

PlayerProfiler followers know that Matt Kelley and the RotoUnderworld team LOVE Adam Trautman. His rookie season did not see him dominate in the box score, but the analytics and advanced stats were promising. He did not record enough stats to qualify for ranking in many of our metrics, but his +6.1-percent Target Premium and +24.6 Production Premium reveal a more efficient option in the passing game for the Saints than the departing Jared Cook.

Teams should have moved past the whole “taking running backs in the first round” thing. But Daniel Jeremiah clearly thinks his old mate Joe Douglas hasn’t, and that leads to his mocking Travis Etienne to the Jets. You can’t argue that the Jets need to not only improve their backfield, but also add playmakers all over their offense. But I’m not sure his landing with the Jets would do too much for his dynasty stock, even as the first running back to be taken.

Like Henry Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle has shown a talent for flipping the field with a 20.0 (93rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Yards per Reception mark. But his 12.8-percent (9th-percentile) Target Share and 15.4-percent (12th-percentile) College Dominator Rating are concerning for a first-round prospect. As is his Breakout Age, because he doesn’t have one. This selection would ask me to give the Giants, and Jason Garrett, the benefit of the doubt. And to that I say no.