NFL

The Kansas City Chiefs remain the league’s most difficult team to beat. Their Super Bowl loss and offensive line reshuffle do not change that. They will remain dominant until Patrick Mahomes’ annual salary increases 40-plus million per year and limits roster construction. Retaining Eric Bieniemy for another year also helps. No need to overthink it on this one. 

The Broncos enter 2021 with a well-built roster. The offense is loaded with weapons and the offensive line play made a leap forward in 2020. Vic Fangio’s defense has talented playmakers at all three levels. The return of most significant starters and coaching personnel suggests good year-to-year consistency by this organization. Team and coaching personnel that have years to develop together have an edge on Sundays.

Coming into the league, Davante Adams ran a 4.56 (45th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard Dash, hardly setting the world on fire. He used his route running to become an elite receiver, as evidenced by his 2.13 (No. 9) Target Separation score. His ability to put space in between himself and a defender, as well as having a supremely accurate QB, is what makes him a good receiver.

Will Fuller looks to become the WR1 in Miami, where he will link up with Tua Tagovailoa and his 7.9 (No. 2) Accuracy Rating. His 1.77 (No. 35) Target Separation will be improved upon in a better offense for his skill set. It should be exciting to see how he does in his new home. 

Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense may be one dimensional, but most teams can not stop them even if they know the gameplan. Jackson’s raw talent and playmaking ability is that good. More playmakers at receiver would be nice, and they may draft some. Expect this team to come to play every Sunday and compete directly with the Browns for control of the AFC North. 

Joe Burrow’s protection will improve with Jonah Williams returning and some new additions along the line, but they didn’t add a backup quarterback in case he needs to be eased back. They added Trey Hendrickson and six new defensive backs, but at the cost of Carl Lawson and William Jackson. Cincinnati will be better in the future, but the win total will remain low in 2021 as Burrow recovers.

Many fans will cite Baltimore’s regression from 2019 to 2020 as the model for what to expect this year from the Bills. That is a lazy take. Buffalo will continue to succeed because unlike the Ravens, they succeeded through the air with an emphasis on Josh Allen’s arm talent, not his rushing ability. The Bills will be the hardest team to beat on Sundays outside of the league’s elite

The chance to improve at quarterback with the NFL Draft’s No. 2 selection places the Jets firmly on the path to relevancy. The notable difference between 2021’s free agent haul and that of previous failed years is the emphasis on upside. Rather than overspending on overhyped names like Le’Veon Bell, C.J. Mosley, and Trumaine Johnson, the Jets targeted undervalued pros and potential breakout stars.

The Cowboys led the NFL with 42.7 Team Pass Plays Per Game and a 2.51 Pace of Play. Before Dak Prescott’s injury, he ranked highly in a number of efficiency metrics with a +18.8 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) Production Premium and 8.0 (No. 6) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. A -4.77 (No. 27) Game Script mark indicated they often played from behind with their poor defense, which will lead to high passing opportunities once again in 2021 if that unit continues to struggle. 

We have Josh Allen out here exploding in 2020 in all the metrics even though Buffalo ranked lowly with a 2.14 (No. 28) Pace of Play. Buffalo averaged 38.9 (No. 13) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and Allen finished with 4,546 (No. 5) Passing Yards and 37 (No. 5) Passing Touchdowns. With the leap in fantasy production and efficiency paired with his rushing production, expect Allen to dominate again in 2021.

Tyler Lockett’s cap hit will be higher than any receiver that has signed a contract in the past twelve months. Among all NFL players, he will count more on the 2024 salary cap than Aaron Donald, the DPOY in three of the last four seasons, will for the division-rival Los Angeles Rams. Expect the Seahawks to move on from him after 2023 before he enters his age-32 season.

Can Lockett maintain his efficiency with another high-volume passing game role in 2021? His 75.8-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Catch Rate, 93.5-percent (No. 9) True Catch Rate and low 3.8-percent (No. 60) Drop Rate didn’t leave fantasy points on the field. Capitalize on his 2020 season that saw high usage, WR1 productivity, and efficiency unusual for players that see the volume that he received.

Despite picking up Sam Darnold’s fifth-year option, Carolina’s commitment to him as the starter may be brusque. It’s no secret that Panthers owner David Tepper covets acquiring a franchise quarterback. If Darnold and his league-worst among qualified quarterbacks -67.40 EPA does not improve in his new destination, expect the Panthers to follow Miami’s lead regarding how they dealt with Josh Rosen, and move on as soon as possible.

With Curtis Samuel vacating 97 (No. 37) Targets and taking into account D.J. Moore’s 757 (No. 8) Unrealized Air Yards, there are opportunities in the Panthers 2021 offense for more production for Moore. His 2.27 (No. 12) Yards Per Route Run, +68.7 (No. 11) EPA, and 28.1-percent (No. 13) Dominator Rating displayed elite efficiency that can translate to a fantasy football bounceback in 2021.

Quarterbacks with high Accuracy Ratings are a godsend to pass-catchers; these players will see a high dose of targets that they can actually do something with. A case in point is reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers, who finished the 2020 campaign with a 7.9 (No. 3 among qualified quarterbacks) Accuracy Rating and led the league in delivering an 81.0-percent Catchable Pass Rate.

We should have high hopes for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in 2021. He posted a 7.9 Accuracy Rating a year ago, the same as Aaron Rodgers and Teddy Bridgewater. He also delivered a Catchable Pass Rate of 80.3-percent in 2020. Only Rodgers and Drew Brees were better. Yet he managed a dismal 13.8 (No. 28) Fantasy Points per Game. Can we attach some blame to the players around him? With a -7.17 (No. 26) Supporting Cast Efficiency rating, you bet we can.

NFL teams do not mortgage the future for one-year wonders like Zach Wilson, or question mark athletes like Mac Jones. Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence have been the best prospects in this class since they were 16 years old, this hasn’t changed. Kyle Shanahan traded up to No. 3 for his guy and QB Collective standout.

The son of former Saints great Joe Horn is looked at as the top cornerback in the draft by many. The next Island Cornerback; think Jalen Ramsey, Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis – Jaycee Horn is for real, and Bill Belichick gets a gift at No. 15 here, allowing him to team up with or replace Stephon Gilmore.

Despite a career-best 13.7 (No. 32 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game average and top-notch efficiency, Davis has failed to break out in his career according to the Breakout Finder. He missed the 200-point PPR mark by less than nine points, and fell short of the 1,000 yard receiving mark by 16 yards. Truly heartbreaking. Will he pull a Devante Parker-like fifth-year breakout? Or will “Corpse” Davis return to the catacombs?

Despite an expected increase in his 92 (No. 42) Targets from 2020, Davis’ efficiency will be tough to replicate without Ryan Tannehill’s 121.1 (No. 2) True Passer Rating. A Breakout Rating below 20.0 shows that banking on him to finally break out in Year 5 is irrational. He’s a JAG receiver and isn’t helping people win games. He’s a perfect throw-in in trades to acquire your target.