NFL

The offseason is an exciting time for both the organizations and the players, and it is the time where new storylines begin. Teams are looking to fix last season’s mistakes, and free agents are looking for a fresh start. There has certainly been some movement that will change the trajectory of some NFL teams for years to come. Let’s take a look at some players going to new teams via free agency.

One year after being PFF’s worst offensive line, the Dolphins have brought in three-time Pro Bowl tackle Terron Armstead. He will bring in veteran leadership and be a valuable asset to the Dolphins offensive line for up to five years. It’s put up or shut up time for Tua Tagovailoa, who still hasn’t really impressed at the NFL level. All the pieces are there, now it’s time for us to watch.

PlayerProfiler/RotoUnderworld Head Game Analyst and NFL Draft Analyst Cody Carpentier is back for more; now breaking down his NFL Mock Draft 5.0 in a short team-by-team series. Next up is Minnesota Vikings. If you want to see your favorite team, go to Twitter @CarpentierNFL and leave Cody a comment on what team you want to see broken down next.

I can’t express how much it hurts me to see the top prospect on my Top 300 Big Board drop to Pick No. 12. From Nick Fairley to Warren Sapp and Laremy Tunsil, sometimes guys fall for a number of reasons. The 11-15 range is where they land. Here comes the value of the draft. Minnesota doesn’t need EDGE as bad as they did a month ago, but you can’t pass up on Kayvon Thibodeaux’s talent.

The return of Jameis Winston to the Saints brings several different fantasy implications, not only for him, but for the team’s skill players. As a starter for New Orleans last season, Winston averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game with 14 passing touchdowns to just 3 interceptions in seven games. He also tacked on 166 rushing yards, showing he has the rushing potential to be impactful in fantasy. Winston had two top-5 weekly fantasy finishes in that time. However, he had four games under 15 fantasy points, showing he was a very volatile option on a Saints team with limited receiving options.

After releasing Cole Beasley, the Buffalo Bills went out and signed Jamison Crowder. Crowder (whose Best Comparable is Beasley) has spent the majority of his career as a slot receiver. Last season in twelve games, he took 334 (No. 17) Slot Snaps at a 66.8-percent Slot Rate. In Buffalo last season, Beasley had an 82.1-percent Slot Rate with Isaiah McKenzie filling in the slot as well. With Beasley out, Crowder’s role will almost certainly be as Josh Allen’s slot receiver, a position where Beasley saw over 100 targets each of the last three seasons.

Consistency is highly sought after by many in the fantasy football community. Since it’s human nature to avoid risk, we feel more comfortable putting a player in our lineup if we know he’ll reliably score 12-15 points compared to a player ranging from 5-25 points. But is consistency a trait we can predict from year to year? Follow along as I use the power of statistics to better analyze the relationship between fantasy points and the consistency with which they’re scored. 

Mike Williams in 2021 finished as the WR14 in PPG by averaging 15.4 PPR points per game, but conversations about his outlook in 2022 are centered on his inconsistent production. His six games with more than 20 PPR points and seven games with fewer than 10 PPR points are worrying many drafters, yet his CV only checked in at 0.687, on the slightly inconsistent end of our “average” bucket. History would suggest that Williams’ CV will improve and he is likely to stay productive in fantasy.

Brad Holmes spent 8 of 16 seasons with Les Snead in Los Angeles, and I would be doing this wrong if I didn’t remind folks what happened during Snead’s first draft back in 2012 while holding the No. 2 overall pick. If not at number 2, the Jets are another spot to look for Atlanta or Seattle to move up.

The benefit of trading away a franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson is reaping the reward with draft picks, and building from within.. the correct way to rebuild a franchise, Evan Neal and Jordan Davis in Round 1 is a smash.

The Bengals have a good quarterback and good skill position players. And they just invested heavily in their offensive line via free agency after going to the Super Bowl. They should be a good team again in 2022. And while we should expect them to continue letting Joe Burrow sling it, they should be nursing enough late leads that a league-average finish in rushing attempts doesn’t seem unreasonable.

You could make a good argument for Joe Mixon being among the few best pure runners in the league. While he turns 26 this July, he doesn’t show any sign of slowing down. It’s tough to trust running backs past age-25. But his dynasty valuation hasn’t fallen off too much. The Bengals are a good team with a good offense. Mixon should be able to take advantage of that situation as one of the league’s best running backs. He’s slightly underpriced relative to other similarly-aged runners in dynasty.

The PlayerProfiler and RotoUnderworld maestro of opportunities, head game analyst, and NFL draft analyst Cody Carpentier is back with the 2022 NFL Draft Team Needs. Look for more Mock Drafts in the Dynasty Deluxe section under NFL Draft Index. Aside from NFL Mock Draft Data, you can find 2022 Rookie Mock Draft ADP (SuperFlex and 1QB) as well as Dynasty Mock Draft ADP (SuperFlex and 1QB), a Dynasty League Trade Finder App, Rankings, Trade Analyzer, and the Brand New Dynasty Dominator Reloaded.

While notoriously a run-first team, the Seattle Seahawks were actually No. 27 in the NFL in rushing attempts in 2021. Their finishes in this category have fluctuated wildly in the last half-decade. It seems that much of that up-and-down is due to Pete Carroll’s internal struggle between letting Russ cook and sticking with his personal preference to establish the run. Now, Russell Wilson is gone. And Carroll’s comments this offseason make it clear that the Seahawks intend to be a run-first football team going forward.

Rashaad Penny is a low key win-now piece that can be had in the relative scrap heap of dynasty startups. And I don’t think it’s out of the question that he’s more productive in 2022 than guys like David Montgomery or J.K. Dobbins. The Seahawks want to run the ball. Penny has a consistent history of positive team-relative efficiency. He’s at the age apex and presumably healthy at the same time that Chris Carson seems to no longer be either one. If it’s ever going to happen, 2022 is the year.

After many many hours of Film Analysis, mixed with the results of the last month attending the NFL Combine and Reese’s Senior Bowl, I am ready to release the Top 300 Prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft. This list can change as new things come in, some would call “this is a Bayesian process” and while these prospects workout at their Pro Days this month and take Top-30 visits with NFL teams, things will change. But ever so slightly.

Things that are taken into account to come up with the below draft grades, you may wonder? 1. Film, 2. Athletic Profile, 3. Cody’s DAWG Rating(off-field actions/energy and on-field actions/energy), 4. Role in College vs NFL and how it will translate.

Only once in the last decade has a Doug Pederson-led offense been willing to run the ball more often than league average in neutral Game Script situations. Pairing that pass-friendly philosophy with the strong possibility that the Jaguars are once again trailing in most of their games next season probably means that we shouldn’t expect high carry totals out of Jacksonville in 2022.

James Robinson is a legitimate talent and one of the best pure runners in the league. Last season marks the second straight year that he’s led an NFL backfield while posting positive team-relative efficiency numbers. His BAE Rating and RSR marks in 2020 were in the 54th and 90th-percentiles, respectively. There are a lot of moving parts in this backfield that make it difficult to navigate in dynasty, but I view that more as an opportunity than as a problem.