NFL

The San Francisco 49ers finished No. 6 in the league in total rushing attempts last season. Their 499 carries were almost 50 more than the NFL average. Kyle Shanahan loves his running game. San Francisco has been a run-heavy team nearly every year of his tenure, regardless of personnel or in-game situation. We should expect that to continue going into 2022.

His current cost is palatable, but I’m still divesting out of Elijah Mitchell and taking cheap shots on Tyrion Davis-Price. Trey Sermon might not be dead either. The main thing is that nobody knows what’s happening in this backfield year-to-year, so treading carefully is the move.

Russell Gage has averaged 11.0 Fantasy Points Per Game in back to back seasons with the Falcons and now will join Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. He will be the WR3 on the offense, but that’s still great fantasy potential. Antonio Brown averaged about 9.0 targets per game in 2021. Gage probably won’t demand that many, but even five targets per game from Brady is enough to get excited about.

In the first round of the draft, the Saints traded up for their next franchise WR: Ohio State WR Chris Olave. His Best Comp is Stefon Diggs, but he’s also faster. He’s a great route runner who will benefit from Jameis Winston’s gun-slinging mentality. With Michael Thomas coming back, Olave shouldn’t receive CB1 coverage, at least to start. He averaged at least 14 yards per reception every year at Ohio State, proving his efficiency. The Saints bet big on him in the draft, and it should work out.

The Cowboys’ RB timeshare will continue as both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are under contract through 2022. What should change though, is an increased Snap Share for Pollard. In 2021, Pollard had a 33.7-percent (No. 60 among qualified running backs) Snap Share, but still finished with over 1,000 all purpose yards. It’s clear that Pollard deserves an increased role in the offense. His receiving prowess makes him an even more valuable fantasy asset as well.

I will give a hot take here and say that Devonta Smith probably benefits the most from this A.J. Brown trade. Brown’s arrival only makes Smith’s job easier since he will now take on the CB2 most of the time. He already has the chemistry with Hurts. And while Brown is a stud, Smith will likely remain Hurts’ main read.

Justin Fields averaged 11.4 (No. 31 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points Per Game, an abysmal season for the No. 11 overall pick. Because of that, basically any improvement at all would be a breakout year for him. Fields’ rushing prowess alone makes him an exciting fantasy prospect. If he takes a step forward he could provide solid value, and also increase the value of the players around him.

Jared Goff now has an arsenal of Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, Jameson Williams, T.J. Hockenson, and D’Andre Swift. Goff has had two years where he averaged in the top 10 of Fantasy Points Per Game. He averaged 19.9 (No. 9) FPPG in 2018, and 17.5 (No. 8) in 2017. He’s not with Sean McVay anymore, but his receiving corps is certainly better. His dynasty ranking is QB30, which provides excellent value for a potential QB1 season with a fairly safe floor as well.

Trey McBride will have to compete for playing time as a rookie, especially after the Cardinals signed Zach Ertz to a healthy contract in free agency. But the news that DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six games of the season should open up opportunities for McBride, as well as the newly acquired Marquise Brown, behind Ertz in the Cardinals’ passing attack. I’m not saying he’s going to be this year’s Kyle Pitts. But could he be this year’s Pat Freiermuth? It’s possible.

Greg Dulcich’s workout metrics were OK without being exceptional. He was above the 63rd-percentile in all the major Workout Metrics, including a 99.1 Speed Score. With Okwuegbunam, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Denver’s desire to run the ball, it would be astonishing if Dulcich was a major contributor as a rookie. But his being drafted as early as he was should serve as a check against going overboard on Albert O in fantasy circles.

Saquon Barkley was a slight worry in the pre-draft process. New coaching staffs can take teams in new directions, but it appears to be another chance for Barkley. This new coaching staff is intent on using him as a receiver. Barkley participated in mini-camp, and looks to be back to full health. The Giants made no actions during the NFL Draft that show they are anything less than fully confident in him.

Buffalo passed on Breece Hall in the first round, but added James Cook in the second with the No. 63 overall pick. The younger brother of Vikings star RB Dalvin, Cook will have an immediate role as a receiver out of the backfield. Last season, he had 27 receptions and four receiving TDs for a loaded Georgia offense and averaged over 6.0 yards per carry. Singletary is in the final year of his contract, and it is easy to see Cook as a player who will gain a lot of value throughout the season.

In 2021, Derek Carr threw for 4,804 yards, No. 5 in the league. Now the Raiders traded for Davante Adams, and Darren Waller will be back in action. They also brought in Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, to be the new head coach. McDaniels should hopefully make the offense more efficient. Even without that, the receiving corps of Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller is nothing to scoff at. Carr has all the weapons he could need, and an offensive mind calling the plays. Anything less than a QB1 performance would be surprising in 2022.

Freak athlete and third-year player Albert Okwuegbunam will finally get Denver’s coveted TE1 spot. In the trade for Russell Wilson, Denver shipped off Noah Fant. The 6-6, 258-pound Albert O, with his 98th-percentile speed and 100th-percentile Speed Score, is finally being the given the starting spot and an upgrade at quarterback. The Broncos have a solid WR corps, so the middle of the field should be wide open for Albert O to take advantage of next season.

Ja’Marr Chase finished behind Tee Higgins in both Target Share and Red Zone Target Share, probably because he was a rookie. Now, he is going into his second year after clearly establishing himself as an elite talent. Again, he finished the year with the 17th-most targets among WRs. There is no reason for him not to be top 5 in that category. Chase averaged 2.38 (No. 4) Fantasy Points Per Target in 2021. If he gets the targets he deserves, he could go for some NFL records for sure.

Regardless of his hand-size, Kenny Pickett finds himself in a great landing spot. Even Mason Rudolph was at least average on this team, and now they’ve added George Pickens and Calvin Austin, two pretty solid rookie WRs. Mike Tomlin won’t force him into a tough spot, which gives him a solid floor but maybe not a very high ceiling.

Are the Chicago Bears trying to get Justin Fields killed? Chicago’s 74.5-percent Protection Rate with Fields under center ranked No. 33 among qualified quarterbacks. The Bears are bad and will likely have plenty of garbage time for Fields to exploit, but it’s hard to get excited about him for fantasy this season with how pedestrian his supporting cast is. At least Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and David Montgomery will be fed extensively.

Perhaps A.J. Brown’s arrival convinces Jalen Hurts and the Eagles coaching staff to let it fly all over the field and more often. But in a low-volume passing offense with a quarterback who is still improving as a passer, loves to run, and has other very capable pass-catchers to feed as well, it’s fair to wonder. Brown still has WR1 upside. But it is going to be harder to tap into that upside as currently constituted in Philadelphia than it was when he was in Tennessee.

Fantasy success often starts with a team’s quarterback. The Texans have now shown their commitment to last year’s third round pick by trading away Deshaun Watson, letting Tyrod Taylor walk, and not drafting a QB. Last season with barely any weapons, Davis Mills finished with a 63.6-percent (No. 9 among qualified quarterbacks) Completion Percentage Vs Man and a 74.5-percent (No. 6) Completion Percentage Vs Zone. Now the Texans have brought in a better RB in Marlon Mack and drafted an explosive Alabama WR in John Metchie.

Expecting Trevor Lawrence to succeed last season was a tall order as nothing seemed to go right for the Jaguars. There hasn’t been a more slam dunk QB prospect like Lawrence since probably Andrew Luck, and it would be extremely surprising if he doesn’t pan out. Doug Pederson guided Carson Wentz to a near MVP season, and was instrumental in the Eagles Super Bowl win with Nick Foles as well. Now he has one of the highest touted QBs in NFL history.