NFL

While notoriously a run-first team, the Seattle Seahawks were actually No. 27 in the NFL in rushing attempts in 2021. Their finishes in this category have fluctuated wildly in the last half-decade. It seems that much of that up-and-down is due to Pete Carroll’s internal struggle between letting Russ cook and sticking with his personal preference to establish the run. Now, Russell Wilson is gone. And Carroll’s comments this offseason make it clear that the Seahawks intend to be a run-first football team going forward.

Rashaad Penny is a low key win-now piece that can be had in the relative scrap heap of dynasty startups. And I don’t think it’s out of the question that he’s more productive in 2022 than guys like David Montgomery or J.K. Dobbins. The Seahawks want to run the ball. Penny has a consistent history of positive team-relative efficiency. He’s at the age apex and presumably healthy at the same time that Chris Carson seems to no longer be either one. If it’s ever going to happen, 2022 is the year.

After many many hours of Film Analysis, mixed with the results of the last month attending the NFL Combine and Reese’s Senior Bowl, I am ready to release the Top 300 Prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft. This list can change as new things come in, some would call “this is a Bayesian process” and while these prospects workout at their Pro Days this month and take Top-30 visits with NFL teams, things will change. But ever so slightly.

Things that are taken into account to come up with the below draft grades, you may wonder? 1. Film, 2. Athletic Profile, 3. Cody’s DAWG Rating(off-field actions/energy and on-field actions/energy), 4. Role in College vs NFL and how it will translate.

Only once in the last decade has a Doug Pederson-led offense been willing to run the ball more often than league average in neutral Game Script situations. Pairing that pass-friendly philosophy with the strong possibility that the Jaguars are once again trailing in most of their games next season probably means that we shouldn’t expect high carry totals out of Jacksonville in 2022.

James Robinson is a legitimate talent and one of the best pure runners in the league. Last season marks the second straight year that he’s led an NFL backfield while posting positive team-relative efficiency numbers. His BAE Rating and RSR marks in 2020 were in the 54th and 90th-percentiles, respectively. There are a lot of moving parts in this backfield that make it difficult to navigate in dynasty, but I view that more as an opportunity than as a problem.

Recent news from the Combine regarding Kenny Pickett’s small hand size has rekindled the flame of the hand size argument. Pickett’s hands measured at 8.5-inches, which puts him in the 1st-percentile of hand size among NFL QBs. There has been recent success of small-hand quarterbacks. However, the concern comes in because Pickett would have the smallest hands among all 32 starting quarterbacks.

To answer the question of how much hand-size matters, it depends on the athlete. A small-hand QB does carry a 10-percent higher chance of fumbling, but what can he do to make up for that? Michael Vick’s answer was mobility. Patrick Mahomes’ answer was improvisation. Small hands are by no means a disqualifier, but there is a learning curve for sure. It remains to be seen what Kenny Pickett’s answer will be to make up for his hand size, but it will be intriguing to watch.

Isaiah Spiller’s lack of bounding range provides cause for concern with his 108.0 (7th-percentile among qualified running backs) Burst Score. In college, he was not a bruiser against larger defenders. And his elusiveness may not translate immediately to the NFL based on his lack of burst. His ability to be patient with good field vision will need to be more prevalent in order for him to overcome athletic inefficiencies against the rest of the draft class.

Kyren Williams ran an RB Combine-worst 4.65 (30th-percentile) 40-yard dash and jumped a low 32-inches in the vertical jump and 116-inches in the broad jump. His slow movement and lack of range as a small-frame back has hurt his stock, for both the NFL and fantasy football. Williams’ chances of being a three-down back in the NFL are looking slimmer. And his prospective draft capital has taken a hit.

James Conner was not good as the lead runner. Largely due to his performance in short-yardage and other obvious running situations, he posted a quality Relative Success Rate, but he was pretty bad otherwise. His YPC+ is in the 15th-percentile. Given his basically seeing the same box counts as the team’s other backs, there’s not much excuse for his inefficiency. The Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating he posted is a 21st-percentile mark; the lowest in the entire league among backs who led their teams in attempts.

A bet on Conner as a high-end fantasy option in 2022 is a bet on two unlikely developments coming to fruition at once: having an elite touchdown rate in back-to-back seasons, and bucking the trend of running backs over the 25-year mark suddenly losing their effectiveness and then fading into the ether. Neither of those are bets I’m willing to make on their own, and I’m certainly not going to parlay them. A better wager would be on Eno Benjamin, a guy who was both productive and efficient in college, to bounce back from a disappointing small-sample rookie year and play well in the RB2 role.

David Njoku is a big-time athlete at the tight end position. So much so that the Cleveland Browns took him in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. They used a first-round pick on him for good reason, but he hasn’t lived up to that draft capital. Much of it can be excused to a very poor situation.

David Njoku is a talented NFL tight end. That has never been in dispute. But circumstances have not fully allowed for those talents to flourish in the NFL. A right situation after free agency could finally free him up to do so. We’ll see what ultimately will happen in free agency that begins on March 15th, but he is worth buying now before his value potentially explodes in a couple of weeks.

The Steelers are simply a pass-happy team in general. Ben Roethlisberger is gone, Mitchell Trubisky (or maybe a rookie?) is in at quarterback. And more changes are sure to come for the Steelers offensive personnel. Maybe, maybe, we’ll see some shift in play-calling and overall philosophy as a result. However, this pass-heavy approach is something we’ve seen for years now in Pittsburgh. So it seems unlikely that they’d swing their pendulum fully toward a high-volume rushing attack.

Leave the Stone Age. Stop citing Najee Harris’ low raw efficiency numbers as a reason why he was overrated as a prospect or should be faded in dynasty. He was a great player in college and he’s a great player now, from both productivity and efficiency standpoints.

Game Scripts are clearly important in determining who to start each week in seasonal leagues. But understanding players’ roles in offenses are pivotal in drafts to determine just how dependent score is to fantasy performance. In this article, we identify some players who were affected in extreme fashion by specific Game Scripts.

In the future, we can analyze historical data for this issue. Is a player’s role in an offense sticky from year to year if they stick with the same team? Does that correlate highly with their fantasy efficiency as it did for some players in 2021? Play-by-play data and the resulting fantasy splits, available to us at PlayerProfiler, can help answer these questions to get ahead of teams’ game plans this offseason to avoid the narrative-dependent stat padders and to buy into the sustainable situations.

D.J. Chark didn’t play much in his rookie season. But, he broke out in 2019 to the tune of 73 receptions on 118 targets for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games. After finishing 2019 as the WR16 in fantasy football, he tumbled to a WR50 finish and was the WR42 on a per-game basis. That is not going to get the job done at all.

I personally believe that the 2019 D.J. Chark is closer to the real thing. Though his 2020 season was concerning, the 2019 season is the one we’ve seen him start and finish without a myriad of injuries. If he really is a receiver of the caliber he showed that year, and lands in a situation conducive to fantasy success, he will get back to putting big-time numbers. That scenario is very much in his range of outcomes, making him a buy in dynasty and best-ball leagues before free agency kicks off.