Trades Buy/Sell

Michael Thomas is expected to return Week 7. I expect him to completely open up this offense and finally give the Saints another dimension they so desperately need. Do I expect them to be high flying through the air? No, but they will increase their passing volume significantly. Finally Jameis Winston can get the ball go to a weapon in the passing game. Once he’s back he will lead the league in target share and be a PPR superstar again. Go get Thomas before your league mates remember who he is.

As historically bad as tight ends have been their rookie year, it may not be enough to derail Kyle Pitts’ breakout. His raw talent is unquestioned but that’s not what will make him productive this season. He has 135 Routes Run (No. 3), 26 Targets (No. 6), 219 Air Yards (No. 6), 6 Red Zone Targets (No. 2). The Falcons are using him and its only a matter of time before his production matches what his metrics suggest. Go get him from the disappointed owner who drafted him.

Chase opportunity, and the production will come. Antonio Brown and Courtland Sutton are two receivers who have been receiving mouth-watering opportunity shares. Both players have posted a 20 point week, but a lack of touchdowns have pushed down their value.

Chase Edmonds is the buy of the week. He’s efficient, consistent, and the clear number one back on a team that has the league’s number one Game Script. James Conner is dust. Don’t let a few touchdowns scare you away from a PPR RB1.

The Rams are balling right now, and you want to chase talent in those situations. Robert Woods is the talent to chase. His usage has been decent and improving since week 1. Variance will soon turn in favor of Woods and bring him the production we’ve seen in years past.

The prototypical alpha is the most secure profile at the wide recevier position. Allen Robinson fits that profile, and has the target share to prove it. We’ve seen the Bears offense struggle, and Robinson was able to rise above the ash heap. He is the locked-in first read in an offense that will be playing plenty from behind. Robinson finds himself with a soft upcoming schedule as Justin Fields and the Bears offense attempt to grow.

Fantasy Football leagues aren’t won at the draft. They’re won by the subsequent moves made via trades and the waiver wire. Studs like Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown have had rough enough starts to the season to convince holders that it might be time to jump ship, despite having solid opportunity shares and a proven history of elite talent.

Noah Fant is the locked-in number two in the Broncos offense, but hasn’t yet had “the game” to jumpstart his breakout. James White is a bonafide weekly flex play in PPR leagues given his current role with the Patriots. Finally, Leonard Fournette is the cheapest bell-cow back currently on the trade block.

There were only four players with more than Bryan Edwards’ 15 targets who bested his 2.43 Target Separation mark. His ability to create space led him to a 2.42 Fantasy Points Per Target average, only 0.03 points south of Tyreek Hill. With Derek Carr’s efficiency and Edwards’ playmaking, the duo can produce big numbers. Regardless of what happens in 2021, Edwards should be a hot name in the 2022 trade market.

Looking forward to 2022, the Browns can cut ties with Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry while saving $30-million. Although they can rework the contracts to make them more affordable, the Browns wouldn’t feel pressured if Donovan Peoples-Jones can step up in a big way. He did just that in 2020. Expect Peoples-Jones to have a couple more big performances in 2021. And while everyone is currently looking at the rookies, make a play for DPJ before he blows up.

The Vikings start the season on the road in what should be high-scoring affairs against the Bengals and Cardinals. Then they’re home for the Seahawks, whose defense that gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the road last season. Kirk Cousins can easily be a top five QB after three weeks, and you can really ride with him through the team’s Week 7 bye. Minnesota plays Detroit and Carolina before the bye, and Dallas directly after, but you’ll want to move him after that.

The 49ers open up the season on the road against the Lions and Eagles, before returning home to host the Packers and Seahawks. Detroit gave up the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs last season, the Seahawks gave up the sixth-most (fourth-most on the road), and the Eagles defense is stronger up front than they are in the secondary. With an incredible trio of skill players in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and their stable of dynamic running backs, the blueprint is there for Jimmy Garoppolo to put up big numbers over the first four weeks.

In 15 games last year, Kenyan Drake scored 10 (No. 10 among qualified running backs) total touchdowns and had 955 (No. 12) rushing yards. And the Cardinals brought James Conner in to fill that role. He’s going to get touches and goal line carries. He can easily outpace Drake’s production in those first three games, but even if he simply replicates it and manages to stay healthy, his trade value will double from his current ADP.

Raheem Mostert is the RB1 in San Francisco for now. But he’s on the last year of his deal, has trouble staying healthy, and Kyle Shanahan has a long history of turning unheralded running backs into fantasy gold. The 49ers spent two of their seven picks in this year’s draft on the running back position. With Jeff Wilson already injured, the path is illuminated for either Trey Sermon or Elijah Mitchell to get an opportunity right from the jump. And if they do, the schedule will be incredibly kind to them.

During his time under Adam Gase, Ryan Tannehill posted above average marks in Yards per Attempt, Completion Percentage, and Touchdown Percentage. In contrast, Sam Darnold has been greatly below the league average in each of these statistics while playing under Gase. Both of these players suffered from low passing volume. The real difference is that Tannehill was able to make the best of his opportunities while Darnold has wasted them.

Sam Darnold is being drafted as a fringe top 100 player in SuperFlex startups. Despite producing fantasy production comparable to a mediocre wide receiver, he is still being priced near much more effective quarterbacks, and that can be used to gain value. If there is another manager who believes that there is hope for Darnold to have his breakout season, now is the time to cash in.

Adam Thielen earned 108 (No. 27 among qualified wide receivers) Targets and a 24.4-percent (No. 16) Target Share, with 1,291 (No. 21) Air Yards and a 35.3-percent (No. 11) Air Yards Share. Not bad right? Well, he barely ranked inside the top-24 with 74 (No. 23) Receptions and 925 (No. 24) Receiving Yards. His 18.2-percent (No. 4) Touchdown Rate is likely unsustainable year-over-year, and gives us an opportunity to place him on the trade block.

The Panthers used Robby Anderson in more of a possession-type role, evidenced by his 7.9 (No. 62) Yards Per Target and 9.6 (No. 64) Average Target Distance marks. Due to the lack of touchdowns, he only finished with a 13.8 (No. 30) Fantasy Points per Game despite hauling in 95 (No. 8) Receptions for 1,088 (No. 13) Receiving Yards. Regardless, his dynasty stock increased from 2019 to 2020 given his career-best season across the board.

At this point in his career, Leonard Fournette will likely share backfield opportunities. With 132 (No. 32 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities and averages of 4.5 (No. 48) Yards Per Touch, and 0.98 (No. 46) Yards Created Per Touch, it indicates he isn’t overly explosive and productive with shared touches. The +5.9 (No. 24) Production Premium gives us a slight glimmer of hope, but he remains a dynasty sell-high after riding the “Playoff Lenny” hype.

After returning from a concussion in Week 12, David Montgomery averaged over 23 touches and 137 total yards per game with eight total touchdowns and 25.7 Fantasy Points per Game. From Weeks 12-17, he finished inside the top-8 each week among fantasy running backs. That’s the perfect definition for dynasty sell-high candidates – finished the season as an RB1, but realistically more of a mid or back-end RB2.