Fantasy Football

With a higher Average Target Distance mark than his teammates, Michael Gallup is often deployed as the deep threat in the Dallas offense, logging 198 (No. 19 among qualified wide receivers) Unrealized Air Yards through 12 weeks. That deep threat role is a valuable one, but it’s not being capitalized on with sub-par QB play post-Prescott. Gallup’s 4.1 (No. 105) Target Quality Rating is far below Amari Cooper’s 5.4 (No. 60) and CeeDee Lamb’s 5.6 (No. 53) marks, more evidence that he’s doing a lot with a little.

It’s never good for a top-3 dynasty RB to lose a year due to an ACL tear. The silver lining is that Saquon Barkley’s injury happened in Week 2, giving him more than enough time to make a full recovery ahead of the 2021 season. Even better for our purposes, he and his explosive plays have been out of the public perception for a very long time. This presents a choice buying opportunity in fantasy football dynasty leagues.

Ronald Darby’s combination of 13 (No. 2 among qualified cornerbacks) Pass Break-Ups, one (No. 3) TDs Allowed, and 55.6-percent (No. 11) Catch Rate Allowed has contributed to his +43.4 (No. 7) Coverage Rating this season. His 1.50 (No. 12) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target spells trouble for Deebo Samuel this week, with Darby’s 87.3 (No. 24) Passer Rating Allowed paired up with Samuel’s 90.2 (No. 69) QB Rating When Targeted.

On top of predicted game flow not being in his favor, Amari Cooper’s 25.6-percent (No. 48) Air Yards Share is less than ideal for a player on a team expected to control the game on the ground. Cincinnati’s William Jackson is a tough matchup for the opposing team’s No. 1 options. His 54.3-percent (No. 8) Catch Rate Allowed is elite and it, along with his 7 (No. 21) Pass Break-Ups, has contributed to his +36.9 (No. 10) Coverage Rating.

Cole Kmet wasn’t a mind-bending prospect that was expected to take the league by storm as a rookie and he certainly didn’t. Up until Week 10, he hadn’t logged a game with more than two targets. However, since Week 10, Kmet has stolen the starting tight end job from Jimmy Graham. There’s been a changing of the guard for a team averaging 42.7 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays per Game, and that may translate to Kmet emerging as a viable streaming option in the fantasy playoffs.

It was fun while it lasted with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but he’s been all but benched for Allen Lazard. Since Lazard returned in Week 11, Valdes-Scantling’s Routes Run and Snap Share have both fallen in consecutive weeks. He bottomed out at two targets and zero catches last week. MVS already had a comically low Target Rate, seeing a target on 15.4-percent of his routes run this season. That mark is No. 158 among qualified wide receivers.

While the 37.2 (No. 18) Team Pass Plays Per Game is good volume, Kyler Murray has failed to hit 6.5 Yards per Attempt in each of his last three. In two of these games, he threw for less than 175 yards. In a win or go home fantasy playoff matchup, we suggest making other plans at quarterback – or temper expectations with Murray, which can work depending on roster construction. The reign as fantasy’s QB1 is over.

In three games with Taysom Hill at quarterback, Alvin Kamara has commanded six targets – or two per game. He has managed two touchdowns in that span, but prior to last week, he posted back-to-back weekly finishes outside the top-24. Without the receptions, Kamara is more of a low-end RB2 than fantasy football’s RB1. He’s created a league-leading 220.8 Weighted Opportunities thus far, but we aren’t sure how many more he’ll create moving forward.

Ty Johnson is the priority add going into Wild Card week given his expected workhorse role and soft matchup against Seattle. Frank Gore will likely miss Week 14 due to a concussion, paving the way for another 20-plus touch week for Johnson. There is concern that Seattle rebounds this week and blows out the Jets, but regardless of Game Script, Johnson will get plenty of touches due to Adam Gase’s archaic play calling.

Keke Coutee emerged for a monster performance with 8 catches and 141 yards on 9 targets against the Colts. His increased usage will continue given that he is the secondary option in a high-octane passing game for a Texans offense that continues to project for negative Game Script. A Week 14 matchup against Chicago limits Coutee’s touchdown upside, but he still belongs in the Flex spot if you are thin on options.

Cam Akers is finally making a case to break the committee approach in Los Angeles and see more of a workload. The Florida State rookie’s Snap Share has been all over the place this season, but his 21 carries on Sunday to Darrell Henderson’s three and Malcolm Brown’s three was a huge step in the right direction. Akers will be pretty hands-off against a ferocious Patriots defense that just blanked the Chargers, but he needs to be started against the Jets and Seahawks in the final weeks of the season.

The highest-total game on the slate didn’t disappoint, but the vertical assault came from Baker Mayfield and not Ryan Tannehill. The Browns rematch with the Ravens next week in primetime (COVID-willing, of course). In Week 1, the Ravens crushed them 38-6. Expect Baker to keep the Browns upright this time, and stacking him with one of his under-priced receivers such as Rashard Higgins or Donovan Peoples-Jones will be a GPP-friendly strategy.

Coming off his best game of the season, T.Y. Hilton matches up with Phillip Gaines, the third-worst ranked cornerback on PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. Hilton has back-to-back games with 70-plus Air Yards after totaling 73 from Weeks 6-10. It’s easier to convert Air Yards into receiving yards when Hilton is covered by a backup thrust into the starting lineup than it is against his Week 11 primary coverage, Jaire Alexander.

With 19 (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers) Deep Targets and a +10.2 (No. 23) Production Premium, fantasy football managers can be assured that the targets Tim Patrick receives produce quality fantasy football points. Charvarius Ward, his projected primary coverage for Week 13, struggles at preventing big plays. His 14.6 Yards Per Reception Allowed, 9.0 Yards Per Target Allowed, and 112.2 Passer Rating Allowed are outside the top-55 qualified cornerbacks.

Antonio Gibson tops all 2020 drafted RBs with a 122.8 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) Speed Score; top 10 overall on PlayerProfiler.com. It’s no surprise that when he handed a larger workload in Week 12, he produced high-end RB1 numbers. The 22-year-old gains 19.79 Lifetime Value points, the most of all RBs, to move from RB14 to RB11 in the dynasty rankings.

In nine games, Matt Breida has 47 carries for 168 yards, averages 3.6 (No. 62) True Yards Per Carry, and has nine catches for 96 yards with no touchdowns. He now finds himself on the reserve/COVID-19 list. It’s unfortunate timing. The Dolphins are shorthanded in the backfield with Washington now sidelined by a hamstring injury. Breida’s stock continues to fall with his ranking dropping from RB65 to RB80 over the past two weeks.

In spite of averaging 31.1 (No. 29) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and totaling 321 (No. 20 among qualified quarterbacks) Pass Attempts, Kirk Cousins proves to make the most of his opportunity with 23 (No.7) passing touchdowns. As pointed out by Around The NFL’s Gregg Rosenthal, Cousins is demonstrating a Jameis Winston-esque all-or-nothing mentality in 2020, totaling 1,663 (No. 7) Completed Air Yards thus far. Fortunately for fantasy managers starting him, he’s totaled just 11 interceptions as well.

Don’t look now, but Jordan Reed has commanded six targets in consecutive games from Weeks 10 and 12 – after returning from injury Week 9. While he’s a part-time player, typically totaling a 40-percent Snap Share, Reed’s Target Rate sits over 30-percent in the aforementioned games. Last week, he led the 49ers offense with 84 Air Yards, and he has a 19.0-percent (No. 9) Air Yards Share on the season. This week, Reed faces a Bills defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Go trade for Antonio Gibson because he looks like he’ll be a three-down back to close out the year. He ran over twice as many routes on Thanksgiving as J.D. McKissic, who only saw two targets. If Gibson is able to solidify himself as the primary runner and pass-catching back in Washington, he will be a top-five running back in the fantasy playoffs.

The Titans use a committee approach at tight end, and the only thing holding Jonnu Smith back from being Irv Smith this year is touchdown efficiency. The problem is that Tennessee is fine running two tight ends, with the non-Smith tight end being the route-runner. He’s fancy Cameron Brate, and if the touchdowns ever stop flowing, expect to be holding more zeroes than TE1 games.