Fantasy Football

Devonta Smith ranks highly in all of the Breakout Finder metrics, the highest Teammate Score in the BOF database being the highlight, and he protects to be a top-10 NFL Draft pick. A Heisman-winning WR is the kind of player that deserves to be a first round rookie pick in any format.

Tutu Atwell is a straight dog as a receiver with an 18.9 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and 35.1-percent (96th-percentile) College Target Share to pair with elite speed and athleticism. He is undersized at 5-9 and 165-pounds, but translates into a dangerous slot weapon in the NFL.

Chris Evans’ profile hits many important metrics which can translate to the NFL. This suggests that if he goes in the middle rounds of the NFL Draft, he will start his career as a backup but could be a productive RB2 if he can ever become the starter on his team. He has shown the ability to effectively rush and catch passes, but he has never put it all together at the same time. If he can do it at the next level, he’ll become a quality fantasy asset.

The 6-4, 215-pound Nico Collins has the size to be a starting outside receiver in the pros. In addition, this size means he is likely to have an upper-percentile Speed Score if his 40-yard Dash time is even average. He sports a 19.7 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPR and a 19.5 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If he can pair that size with great athleticism, he’ll have the most upside of any late-round rookie receiver in this class.

D’Andre Swift only finished eight slots and 2.3 fantasy points away from Jonathan Taylor for the Fantasy Points per Game lead among rookie RBs. Swift hit a 14.6 (No. 16) FFPG average, while Taylor ended with a 16.9 (No. 8) FFPG average. Both now reside among the top six overall players in our dynasty rankings and this result can easily flip flop in a given year, but 2020 was Taylor’s time.

As was the case with both Minnesota and Carolina, Seattle’s narrow pass-game distribution was expected to work in D.K. Metcalf’s favor. Once again, the receiver on the other side of the formation had something to say about that, in this case it was the equally as good and equally as volatile Tyler Lockett.

With Curtis Samuel set to walk in free agency, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are primed to be what we target in fantasy football: high-floor, high-ceiling assets. High floor because of the narrow pass distribution and boost in volume. High ceiling because of the potential of better, efficient quarterback play.

Already in a narrow pass distribution tree, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are looking at an increase in targets in an already high-volume pass attack. Backed by a weak defense, we’re looking at another high-floor, high-ceiling receiver duo if Joe Burrow makes strides in Year 2. Boyd is going in the sixth round as WR26, while Higgins is going in the seventh as WR33.

The Running Back Doesn’t Matter philosophy stipulates RB production does not necessarily equate to talent, making the position replaceable. Investing significant capital in a top back who vanishes from utility is catastrophic to a dynasty team. Thus, RBDM proponents should run away from mediocre rushers who succeeded due to sheer volume. The few safe havens set to produce at an elite level for years to come should be coveted.

Running back talent has surged recently. The 2017 and 2020 draft classes gave rise to an RB renaissance. It’s on dynasty leaguers to make shrewd decisions on which current RB1s and emerging talents to place their chips on moving forward. I would target Miles Sanders or Antonio Gibson in trades for Josh Jacobs, and would sell David Montgomery in exchange for A.J. Dillon and a draft pick.

A sneaky little way to add talented players that are off of others’ radars are by adding them to a trade as “throw-ins.” Sure, everyone loves Darren Waller now, but it wasn’t until his age 27 season that he became a name to know. Hell, some might not even remember he was drafted by Baltimore. Yet, after years of no production he suddenly bloomed and put himself in the upper echelon of tight ends. Imagine how many Waller truthers got him as a throw-in.

When it comes to the tight end position, there are several players to keep an eye on. However, Carolina’s Ian Thomas should be at the top of everyone’s list. Yes, we were high on him last offseason and his 2020 was rather quiet. However, he’ll be 25 when the new year starts and in his second season with coach Matt Rhule and his system. With a quarterback upgrade likely coming, as well as vacated targets should Curtis Samuel leave, Thomas is setup for success.

For the next few months, the RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community and our friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

With five QBs potentially earmarked for the first round of the NFL Draft, and subsequently the top half of the first round of many a SuperFlex rookie draft, it feels like the middle portion will be the ideal spot to pick from and the range to target in potential trade-downs. For me, having PlayerProfiler’s No. 5-ranked rookie in SF/TEP formats in Travis Etienne waiting for me at the 1.08 reinforces this notion.

For the next few months, the RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community and our friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

Coming away with any real takeaways from the first round of any rookie mock draft will be difficult unless there’s a player or two that end up going higher or lower than consensus. Of the players picked in the first round, only Elijah Moore is not ranked among our top 12 dynasty rookies. He’s not that far off, but making an argument for him over a Terrace Marshall or a Kenny Gainwell in this spot is more than feasible given his advanced stats and metrics.

It’s RotoUnderworld vs. RosterWatch in a fierce, ongoing, totally-serious-with-no-room-for-cheeky-shenanigans series of fantasy football mock drafts. We begin with a recap of the first five-round rookie mock under the RW vs. RU banner.

As is the case in every mock draft, there will be picks that wildly stray from what is perceived to be consensus, depending on who you ask of course. The “Kyle Pitts No Matter What” crowd will have no issue with seeing him go at 1.04, even in a single QB, non-TE premium format. However, the first real Point of Divergence came with Cody Carpentier’s 1.06 selection of Jermar Jefferson over Javonte Williams. 

Adam Thielen earned 108 (No. 27 among qualified wide receivers) Targets and a 24.4-percent (No. 16) Target Share, with 1,291 (No. 21) Air Yards and a 35.3-percent (No. 11) Air Yards Share. Not bad right? Well, he barely ranked inside the top-24 with 74 (No. 23) Receptions and 925 (No. 24) Receiving Yards. His 18.2-percent (No. 4) Touchdown Rate is likely unsustainable year-over-year, and gives us an opportunity to place him on the trade block.

The Panthers used Robby Anderson in more of a possession-type role, evidenced by his 7.9 (No. 62) Yards Per Target and 9.6 (No. 64) Average Target Distance marks. Due to the lack of touchdowns, he only finished with a 13.8 (No. 30) Fantasy Points per Game despite hauling in 95 (No. 8) Receptions for 1,088 (No. 13) Receiving Yards. Regardless, his dynasty stock increased from 2019 to 2020 given his career-best season across the board.