Fantasy Football

The key to finding receivers rostered in less than 50-percent of leagues with startable upside is to follow the Air Yards. This week is no different when it comes to my two start recommendations. Emmanuel Sanders has 235 (No. 12) Air Yards, with 145 (No. 7) being Unrealized Air Yards.

Regardless of whether Antonio Brown plays or not, Mike Evans is a sit for me in Week 3. Opposing tight ends are targeted 19 times in two games against the Rams’ defense. Moore leads the Jets with 173 (No. 32) Air Yards, with 134 (N0. 9) being Unrealized Air Yards. The Broncos defense, thanks to Callahan, take away the check-down options and allow an Average Target Distance of 10.8.

Through two games, Tony Pollard’s efficiency metrics are outstanding with top marks for True Yards Per Carry (6.9, No. 1), Yards Created Per Touch (5.22, No. 1), Juke Rate (47.8-percent, No. 4), and Evaded Tackles (11, No. 10). Pollard earns 12.09 Lifetime Value points to climbs six spots to RB24. Standalone value with immense upside, who doesn’t like that?

Jameis Winston’s metrics are nearly as bad as his Week 2 interceptions. Through two contests he has an Adjusted Yards Per Attempt mark of 5.8 (No. 26) with a 65.8 (No. 30) True Completion Percentage. Jameis has committed four (No. 8) Interceptable Passes and six (No. 9) Danger Plays with a lowly 6.6 (No. 31) Accuracy Rating . With the New England Patriots on tap and Taysom Hill waiting in the wings, Winston drops four spots in the dynasty rankings to QB28.

Fantasy Football leagues aren’t won at the draft. They’re won by the subsequent moves made via trades and the waiver wire. Studs like Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown have had rough enough starts to the season to convince holders that it might be time to jump ship, despite having solid opportunity shares and a proven history of elite talent.

Noah Fant is the locked-in number two in the Broncos offense, but hasn’t yet had “the game” to jumpstart his breakout. James White is a bonafide weekly flex play in PPR leagues given his current role with the Patriots. Finally, Leonard Fournette is the cheapest bell-cow back currently on the trade block.

Patience. It can be very hard to stay patient on a high pick like Saquon Barkley, but he draws a favorable matchup against the Falcons after many sat him last week against Washington. He showed signs of a return to form on a 41-yard run against Washington last week. Yet, he has shown little else with a bad offensive line and suspect play calling. If there was as good a time as any, Barkley has a chance to breakout Week 3 against Atlanta.

Marquez Callaway WR1 season has gotten off to a rocky start. He has 3 receptions on 6 targets in two weeks. J.C. Jackson brings another tough matchup this week. Jameis Winston is also coming off a rough outing with 2 interceptions in Week 2. The Patriots have 5 interceptions and held apposing QBs to 210 yards or less in Weeks 1 and 2. Both Callaway and Winston have a tough opponent in Week 3.

Justin Fields looks set for his first start this season against Cleveland with Andy Dalton out with a knee injury. He should spark the offense with his scrambling ability. He is a starter in SuperFlex leagues right away and can be immediately considered for QB-streaming teams. He has elite scrambling ability and a fine pair of WRs in Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney. Fields could be just what the doctor ordered to ignite the team and the fan base.

We discussed K.J. Osborn as a player dynasty managers should add. At this point, he should be added in all formats. Operating as the third option in the Minnesota passing attack, he followed up a seven-catch opener with five more catches this past weekend, including a 64-yard TD reception. Osborn could be the next in a long line of University of Miami WRs to have solid NFL careers. 

With Trey Sermon inactive and Raheem Mostert suffering a knee injury, Elijah Mitchell saw an 82.6-percent Opportunity Share. He produced a True Yards Per Carry Rate of 4.9 (No. 13 among qualified RBs) with 7 (No. 4) Evaded Tackles and a 36.8-percent (No. 5) Juke Rate. It’s fully expected that the 49ers will involve multiple RBs. However, Mitchell is the elite athlete of the group on a team that’s likely to face plenty of positive Game Script.

Those who tuned into NFL Top-10 (plus) Takeaways already know that The Podfather is worried about Tua Tagovailoa. Miami inched by the Patriots 17-16, but Tua was anything but sharp. Looking past the box score we find 4 (No. 3) Danger Plays and 4 (No. 4) Interceptable Passes. Tagovailoa had an abysmal 37.3 (No. 31) True Passer Rating and a 7.0 (No. 24) Accuracy Rating. He loses 10.23 Lifetime Value points and lands outside of the Top 20 QBs in our dynasty rankings.

Diontae Johnson was a top-10 WR in Week 1 in Target Share (31.3-percent), Hog Rate (25.0-percent), and Target Rate (37.0-percent). However, Johnson will face stiff coverage from Casey Hayward (No. 17-ranked CB) in a game that the Steelers are projected to handle with ease. Volume is key to fantasy points scored. In 2020, Johnson averaged 19.44 fantasy points in seven games he ran 40-plus routes. In six games (excluding injuries) that he ran under 40 routes, he averaged 14.0 fantasy points.

Has Ja’Marr Chase relegated Tee Higgins to the 1B passing option in Cincinnati with Tyler Boyd as a target-stealing No. 3? Possibly. Chase more than doubled Higgins’ 48 (No. 58) Air Yards, while Chase’s 26.9-percent (No. 12) Target Share dwarfed Higgins’ 19.2-percent (No. 41). Against a lesser cornerback in Bashaud Breeland last week, Higgins secured a 10.0-percent (No. 73) Hog Rate. Joe Burrow will not force-feed targets to him if he can’t beat Jaylon Johnson (No. 20-ranked CB).

If you put up 73 receptions, 1,008 yards, and 8 touchdowns at the age of 22, you’re a good football player, end of discussion. Last year, Chark played with Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, and Jake Luton; with a generational quarterback in Trevor Lawrence entering the fold, I simply couldn’t see how Chark could be faded. If Chark continues to be the number one option and get those valuable, deep targets while the Jaguars play from behind, I can envision him finishing as a mid-high end WR2.

Week 1 confirmed exactly what I wanted to see out of Darrell Henderson, although I don’t expect him to continue to get a 96.0-percent Snap Share and 94.4-percent Opportunity Share. While Sony Michel will take on a larger role in the offense going forward, Henderson can easily see 13.5 carries and 3.5 targets per game which translates to 230 carries and 60 targets. While McVay seems to be worried about Henderson holding up for a whole season, in the case that he does, Henderson could finish as an RB1 given the offense’s ability to run the table and the defense keeping them in positive Game Scripts.

Antonio Gibson is my personal favorite dark horse to surpass Christian McCaffrey as THE top running back in fantasy football this year. The offseason reports of the Football Team running their offense through Gibson seemed to be true. In Week 1, he saw an 83.3-percent Opportunity Share, which is a bell-cow workload. If Gibson is able to cut down on his fumbles, his defense will give him good field position and Game Scripts, with a backup quarterback in Taylor Heinicke who will feed him check downs. He will have a real shot at the RB1 title.

D’Andre Swift blew us away with his involvement in the passing game. Jamaal Williams took probably a little bit more of what we’d like of his opportunity, but it didn’t matter. We know the Lions will have bad Game Scripts, which equals less rushing opportunities. Swift laughs at rushing opportunity because he will gladly feast on more receiving opportunity. He ran routes on 63-percent of passing plays and saw 11 targets in Week 1. If this pattern continues all season long, we are looking at a PPR superstar and dark horse RB1.

Behind Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, TE Jared Cook is in line for a big game. Cook ranks 97th-percentile among qualified tight ends or higher in Speed Score, Burst Score, and Catch Radius, with a 99th-percentile arm length. He has a streak of four straight seasons with 500-plus receiving yards and caught 5 passes for 56 yards week 1. The Cowboys allowed 379 passing yards to the Buccaneers and the secondary did not look great. Cook is in for a great game this week as the Chargers’ third option in the passing game.

The Atlanta Falcons are going up against the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 2. While you may expect offense in this game, avoid Mike Davis. He measures at 5-9, with a 96.1 (48th-percentile) Speed Score. He has also averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in just one season in his career. The Tampa Bay defensive line is imposing, led by 6-4, 347-pound Vita Vea. They held Ezekiel Elliott to just 3.0 yards per carry in Week 1.