Prop Plays

Buffalo’s lethal defense brought Tua Tagovailoa back to earth following his show-stopping Week 2 performance, limiting the Dolphins to 186 passing yards on 18 attempts. His output should have been far worse. It looked as if he would not return from the gruesome head injury he suffered late in the second quarter. The Bengals defense offers quite the exploitable matchup as they have struggled to slow down inferior offenses in three straight weeks. Tua is proving to be one of the most accurate passers in the league, and will be a top-12 option tonight.

Amari Cooper is looking like his old self again. After being out targeted by Donovan Peoples-Jones 11 to 6 in week one, Cooper has regained his anticipated stranglehold on the Browns passing attack. Cooper has seen double digit targets, and over 120 Air Yards each of the past two weeks.  Look for Cooper to continue his dominance this week against Falcons.

Marvin Jones continues to pace the Jaguars in Air Yards. While he has been outscored in fantasy points by both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Marvin Jones remains the Jaguars preferred downfield target with an average target distance of 14.3 yards. If Trevor Lawrence is forced to air it out with the Jaguars going against an explosive Eagles offense, look for him to try to find Marvin Jones for a long touchdown.

Baltimore will have its hands full containing Stefon Diggs, opening up Davis. Davis had a 100-percent Route Participation and 98.3-percent Snap Share in Week 1, operating at full speed in the Buffalo offense. Coming off injury, he saw similar usage in Week 3. With Davis being a WR2 in a high-powered offense with opportunity, expect a bigger game than usual from him facing a struggling secondary

The Eagles have not allowed 100 yards rushing each of their last two games, with D’Andre Swift the sole 100-yard rushing opponent in Week 1. Philadelphia has tended to lead big in games, leading to a pass-heavy opponent Game Script. Robinson was closer to a 50/50 Snap Share split with Etienne in a close Week 1 game, while he had more snaps in Week 2 and 3 blowouts. Expect a soaring Eagles team to be competitive against Jacksonville, leading to more Etienne passing-down snaps.

Unfortunately, Pittsburgh Mitch has looked too much like Chicago Mitch. Heading into Week 3, he was putting up 5.1 (No. 33) Yards Per Attempt and a -11.8 (No. 40) Expected Points Added. On Thursday, he threw for 204 yards against the Browns. This was less than Cleveland had given up to both Joe Flacco and Baker Mayfield in Weeks 1 and 2. With the Steelers now 1-2, and near the bottom of all offensive categories, those of us that drafted Pickett should get excited, right?

Raise your hand if you have as many receptions this NFL season as Cole Kmet! Also, raise your hand if you had just as many receiving yards as Darnell Mooney last week. Congratulations! For reasons I’m unaware of, the Bears coaching staff has decided to abandon the notion of throwing the ball. Why? I don’t know. The Bears have thrown the ball 28 times through two games which is easily the lowest in the NFL.

On our Underdog slip, we sold high on Najee Harris’ rushing yards. This was thanks to eyeballing his injury report and a fear of Pittsburgh’s offensive line in a tough matchups against New England. Taking the under on popular players continues to be a valuable play in the player prop market. Harris never challenged his 55.5 rushing yard line in the game.

D.K. Metcalf is still top-30 in Target Share and Snap Share this season, but the Geno Smith-led Seahawks offense isn’t utilizing Metcalf optimally. Shepard is top-20 in Target Share and Air Yards Share. On top of that, he’s No. 33 in Yards Per Route Run. He currently leads the NFL in Target Separation Vs. Man and is the undisputed top option in the Giants’ passing offense.

Welcome to the newest edition of TNF Showdown which features the Steelers at the Browns. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. This Week 3 TNF Showdown features the Steelers at the Browns.
Without further ado, let’s see what the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns have in store for us as both teams look to bounce back from tough Week 2 losses.

We are through a week, plus a Thursday Night Football, of the fantasy season. Play-by-play data for this season’s games are starting to pour in and get uploaded to PlayerProfiler.com. It’s time to continue our series of weekly player prop pick ‘em selections based on new knowledge. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week. I give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

Jaylen Waddle finished inside the top-20 last week thanks to a touchdown, but his opportunity metrics are concerning. His Target Share ranks No. 40 among wide receivers and his Slot Rate plummeted from 43.8-percent last season to 17.5-percent in Week 1. Rashod Bateman’s opportunity metrics from Week 1 show that inconsistent performances will occur. He was outside the top-50 in targets, Snap Share, and Route Participation.

Marvin Jones is top-20 in Air Yards and Routes Run. On top of that, he’s top-10 in Average Target Distance, Unrealized Air Yards, and Deep Targets. Jakobi Meyers saw a 92.5-percent (No. 16) Snap Share, 20.0-percent (No. 32) Target Share, and 32.7-percent (No. 23) Air Yards Share. On top of that, his 14.8 (No. 14) Average Target Distance in Week 1 was MUCH higher than years past where he’s been under 11.0 every season.