Prop Plays

After a scorching start to the season, Lamar Jackson’s production took a nosedive. To put his poor performance into the appropriate context, Jackson has averaged fewer Fantasy Points per Game than Marcus Mariota since Week 4 (14.68 to 14.80 FPPG, respectively). Talk about a spooky season. The advanced metrics will tell you he’s playing well, and he is, but the Raven’s offense has been uncharacteristically sluggish. After losing their second straight game, this team needs a spark, and they’ll find it tonight. Tampa Bay wields a near league-worst red zone defense, which will give Jackson ample opportunity to find the endzone.

Chris Olave, the Air Yards king, returns to the main slate this week. He impressively is the Air Yards triple crown leader currently ranked first in all major Air Yards related categories. He is a must play in all formats regardless of who is starting at quarterback for the Saints this week and whether Michael Thomas and/or Jarvis Landry are active.

Darnell Mooney’s fantasy’s relevance has been inextricably tied to Justin Fields passing attempts. With Fields passing the football at least 20 times a game from week four onward, Mooney has averaged 99 Air Yards per game, and seen at least five targets in each outing. He is an absolute cash game value this week against the Cowboys and has the chance to go off for over 100 Yards and a touchdown. Mooney needs to be roster in all formats. 

This is the Best Pick ‘Em Player Props for Week 7! We finally got an offensive showcase on Thursday Night Football. However, this was not in a fantasy-football-shattering fashion as we saw touchdowns from several players not rostered in most leagues and not offered on pick ‘em sites. Is it going to be that kind of week? Or, will we see stars be stars in Week 7? Welcome back to the article series where we spot values in player prop over/unders. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

The Saint’s 2022 QB Carousel has been frustrating for fantasy gamers, and the picture isn’t getting any clearer this week. On another short weeks rest, head coach Dennis Allen states that he wants to get Jameis Winston “…fully healthy and go from there,” and appeared pleased with Andy Dalton’s performances. The likely event is that Winston is active again as an “emergency quarterback” and Dalton gets the start. The human Red Panda is an effective real-life game manager but not an effective fantasy quarterback. He’s posted a season-high 13 fantasy points, so it’s best to look for other options even in 2QB leagues.

Pollard averaged 6.3 (No. 4) yards per touch through Week 5 and added 52 yards on 13 touches in Week 6. While he has just three top-30 fantasy finishes this season, Pollard is a threat for big plays any week as he chips away at Elliott’s workload. He’ll get a good shot at exploding Week 7 against the Lions.

Denver’s offense has often sputtered this season. Courtland Sutton has been a serviceable fantasy asset while Jerry Jeudy has been on-and-off. Russell Wilson has disappointed, leading to shaky fantasy output from Denver weapons. Facing a good secondary and a defense that has been riding high the last few games, Denver WRs are unlikely to produce a big output for fantasy.

This is Best Pick ‘Em Player Props Week 6! NFL player prop over-unders are extremely profitable in the long run, and we’ve learned a lot from the first few weeks of the season about teams’ identities, players’ limitations, and game scripts we can depend on going forward. Let’s take advantage. Welcome back to my pick ‘em series where I try to find the right selections for you. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

NFL betting continues to be a roller-coaster for many. However, thanks to resources on PlayerProfiler, we can more easily find value in player props. This is particularly true when DFS sites offer pick ‘em props with extreme value compared to sportsbooks. Welcome back to my pick ‘em series where I try to find the right selections for you. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week. Then, I give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

Chris Olave saw over 100 Air Yards for the third consecutive week and continues to break the value index. Olave was the Saints leading receiver with with Michael Thomas hobbled by a toe injury seeing seven targets. Olave leads the league in both Air Yards and Unrealized Air Yards meaning that no matter who is throwing him the football, be it Jameis Winston, or Andy Dalton, he is going to have slate breaking potential. Olave has not reached his ceiling and is in a great spot to finally do so this week against a Seahawks secondary that was recently lit up the Detroit Lions. Olave is a must play wide receiver in all formats at his cost.

George Pickens led the Steelers with 157 Air Yards last week and is only three Air Yards behind Dionte Johnson for the season leader in Air Yards among Steelers. Pickens will likely soon be the leader among Steelers wide receivers in Air Yards with Kenny Pickett now at quarterback. Pickett had more Deep Ball Attempts in his 13 pass attempts (4) than Mitch Trubisky had all season (1). Pickens has massive blow up potential entering week five and is a great play in all formats.

Player props in the NFL continue to be a profitable way to attack the betting market. In locations where you cannot get your hands on a full-access sportsbook, you can still find supreme value in pick ’em props. Every prop is the same price, and you just have to find the overs and unders the line-creators have whiffed on. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ’ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper. This week we will be reviewing the Best Pick Em Player Props for Week 4!

It’s not only the cornerback matchup that is a problem for Marquise Brown; the Panthers have a good pass defense. Only two defenses have been targeted more than Carolina AND allowed fewer passing yards. Terry McLaurin’s Target Share is 16.5-percent (No. 56). McLaurin’s Target Share has NEVER been below 23.0-percent in his career. Nico Collins’15.5-percent (No. 60) Target Share is lower than one would want to see for a dart throw, but Collins does have a nine-target game this season where he exceeded 120 Air Yards.