DFS

D.J. Moore has arrived as an elite, alpha receiver in 2021. He ranks No. 6 in Target Share, and No. 11 in Air Yards Share. While he’s suffered from inconsistent quarterback play, the chance to play Moore in an elite matchup projected under ten-percent ownership is an opportunity you cannot pass up. Diontae Johnson is eternally under-owned in DFS despite a 29-percent Target Share. While the matchup is not as juicy as Moore’s, Johnson has a role worth well above his $6,700 salary and few project to be paying for it.

This week offers another opportunity to test our heuristics on bring backs. Cincinnati, Buffalo, and the Rams are all among the best projected teams on the slate in games with spreads above ten points. Should you play both sides of these games or merely stick to the favourite? With the caveat that each play should be viewed in a vacuum, I think the answers spread widely here.

Tom Brady has taken a blow torch to opposing pass defenses this year, yet there’s still some lagging skepticism among DFS players. Capitalize by playing one of the highest floor and ceiling plays, paired with his slot WR Chris Godwin in a plus matchup this week against the Saints. Alternatively, get leverage off the popular high end WR plays by stacking Justin Herbert with Mike Williams in another of the league’s pass happiest offenses.

You can almost set your watch to Lamar Jackson generating more than 300 yards per game because he has done it in five out of six games this year. He’s doing it through the air (281.0 passing yards per game) and on the ground (65.3 rushing yards per game).While last week’s shocking blowout victory over the Chargers stifled his production, I believe that a divisional matchup with the Bengals will highlight premier Lamar Jackson.

The Cordarrelle Patterson experience is just getting started, so strap in and go hard on this soft line. Patterson averaged 11.25 Total Touches Week 5. Enter Week 6, where his Total Touches spiked to 23. If this usage continues, then he will smash with his 7.1 Yards Per Touch (No. 1 among qualified RB’s) and Underdog Fantasy will have to set his line closer to 90 yards for Week 7.

DeAndre Hopkins certainly deserves a mention given his team’s massive team total (32.25) against his former team. Hopkins has yet to put up a 100-yard game with a touchdown but that is well within his range of outcomes. Kyler Murray’s proclivity to spread the ball around has rightfully scared off some fantasy gamers from paying up for Hopkins. However, he edges out his teammates with a 20.8-percent Target Share and also separates himself with his touchdown production.

Patrick Mahomes posted his highest yardage total in Week 6 and looks to pick up where he left off for Week 7. Of the highest-totaled Week 7 games, the Chiefs/Titans game has the closest Vegas point spread (5.5). The game itself has the highest game total (57.5) and seems the likeliest for a shootout (or whatever it’s called when you’re having to keep up with Derrick Henry).

Brandin Cooks remains the top value play of the week, a title he has held since week four. Cooks bounced back last week finishing as the WR18 on the week posting nine receptions for 89  yards on 13 targets. He saw 147 Air Yards last week and regained the league lead in Air Yards Share. At $6,000 on DraftKings, Cooks remains a value and is a recommended play in all formats.

Devonta Smith disappointed in an island game last week, posting only 5.1 fantasy points in what was perceived to be a smash spot against Tampa Bay. Regardless, he still led the Eagles in Air Yards on the week and is the only Eagles receiver to post over 100 Air Yards in a week on the season. Recency bias and matchup makes Smith a great contrarian play this week against a Raiders secondary that has limited fantasy points for receivers. He is the top value play on the week and a must-start in tournament lineups.

With the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers, Broncos, Browns, Colts, 49ers, Saints, and Seahawks all off the main slate, most would think it creates opportunity. However, for this week, in particular, I believe it establishes chalk. A combination of matchups and injuries limits the opportunities. 

Patrick Mahomes stacked with combinations of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be popular, and I’m not suggesting to fade them. However, lineups with Mahomes, Darrel Williams, and Mecole Hardman could make for an exciting turnout. Hill has hit on a 50-percent ROI thus far. If the Chiefs go up early, we could see a week where we could have pivoted to another player and seen variance from Mahomes builds. 

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

In the index, Swift and Jones are the two I am most willing to roster in both cash and tournaments. Mike Davis and Leonard Fournette make for interesting players to have in your tournament player pool, that have the potential for multiple touchdowns in a given week. Derrick Henry is a stud that should be rostered if you can afford it but is outside of the index because he is cost-prohibitive, especially on FanDuel.

Lamar Jackson let down many DFS players last week as the Ravens running backs rushed for three touchdowns. Going back to him this week with his highest upside wide receiver will be an opportunity to leverage his more popular teammates. Also, see why playing the Titans passing game is a great contrarian angle to take in the highest scoring game of the week.

The final stack features Derek Carr and Henry Ruggs. Carr is playing some of the best ball of his career this year and doing so in a way ideal for fantasy owners. The main beneficiary of this play has been Ruggs. He’s turned the No. 2-ranked Average Target Distance (18.8 yards) into 350 (No. 9) Completed Air Yards and 445 (No. 14) receiving yards. He’s looking like the un-guardable deep threat promised out of Alabama last year.

Patrick Mahomes’ league-high 16 Passing Touchdowns matches up well against the Washington defense. Washington and Kansas City rank No. 4 and No. 5 respectively in Pace of Play this season, so this should be an up-pace game as well. The alluring stacking option here is the Mahomes double stack with Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce, who combine for a whopping 50.7-percent Target Share. The field probably won’t want to pay all the way up at these positions, so that should help drive down ownership. The Chiefs have a slate-high 31 Vegas implied team total.

Mark Andrews is a shocking value play after eviscerating the Colts in Week 5. His $5,200 salary doesn’t seem to match up with his elite usage. His 23.0-percent (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) Air Yards Share, 24.51-percent (No. 2) Target Share, and 86.82-percent (No. 2) Route Participation is top-notch. The opposing Chargers’ elevated situation neutral Pace of Play (No. 5) and offensive success has forced teams to pass the ball more. The Chargers are No. 10 in aFPA and tied for the most touchdowns allowed to tight ends (4). If you fade Andrews, you’re just kooky.

Mac Jones and the Patriots will look to move the ball through the air against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards through Week 5. And throwing the ball isn’t out of the ordinary for Mac Jones, exhibited by a 38.4 (No. 9) Team Pass Plays Per Game average. Jones has also been fairly productive, with 742 (No. 12 among qualified quarterbacks) Completed Air Yards and an excellent 8.2 (No. 1) Accuracy Rating. I expect this to be a sneaky shootout.

Take the over on a wide receiver who is masked as a tight end. Mike Gesicki’s position-leading 133 Slot Snaps and 140 (No. 6) Routes Run are metrics indicative of a wide receiver, not a tight end. Additionally, his 17.0-percent (No. 2) Hog Rate means that he is receiving a high Target Rate in relation to his Snap Share. Therefore, when this “TE” is on the field, he is being utilized in the passing game more often than not.