DFS

Game-log bros might fade the Colts after seeing the Jags skunk the Bills in Week 9 but don’t be worried. The Jaguars 49-percent Pass Success Rate allowed (No. 3) and No. 32 ranked Pass DVOA is the path of least resistance for a Colt’s team with a high 29 point implied team total (No. 4). The Jaguars are allowing 21.4 DKPt to quarterbacks (which is also our median projection). Stack Carson Wentz with Michael Pittman with a James Robinson runback to be unique.

Chris Godwin gets the PFF No. 1 graded WR/CB matchup facing the Football Team defense. The issue here is his foot injury that has caused him to miss practice all week. He plays in the early set of games though, so we’ll know ahead of time whether to pivot. If he goes, he’s near a lock play given the matchup and game total (30.5). If he misses, Mike Evans is a very strong play.

Pending injury news, the common structure this week should include one elite running back, paired with one of the free squares, and a game stack around it in the wide receiver slots. This generally presents an either/or question for you to consider in each lineup. Would you rather pair one of the top-owned game-stacks with a unique running back construction? Or would you rather stack an under the radar game and give yourself the chance to play any running backs you wish?

I always say in this column that my goal is to submit lineups that require the fewest number of correct assumptions to win. It is not uncommon to see situations such as last week where a high-ceiling stack such as the Chargers is less than five-percent owned in a small field. Because you are correlating one under-owned decision, you can play far more chalk-pieces around it. I’m playing three-four under-owned players, but it’s all correlated to one singular outcome. This is always my favourite way to play small-fields.

There are some great running backs I’d love to play in the DFS Week 10 matchups, but the pricing makes it difficult. However, if you think Washington can come back firing after a bye, then a contrarian play could pay off tremendously. Taylor Heinicke offers rushing upside, so you don’t need to stack a bunch of players around him. In fact, I might argue you can run him naked. However, J.D. McKissic or Terry McLaurin will likely play a role in his success; meanwhile, don’t forget about DeAndre Carter. 

With fantasy gamers chasing the high point total in the Chargers Vikings game, find a way to get exposure without eating chalk through the Vikes passing game. Justin Jefferson is excelling this year in the red zone and on deep passes; sounds exactly like what you’re looking for in GPPs. Also, consider fading the recent struggles and going back to Josh Allen with one of the highest implied team totals for the week.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott (if healthy) are cash game viable this week from this list. James Robinson is an interesting tournament play away from Fournette if he is healthy, and Mike Davis is someone to cross off your player pool list as his elevated ranking is based on the first several weeks of the season more than anything else.

The Elijah Moore breakout is here! Moore finished as the WR1 in week nine posting seven receptions for 84 yards and two touchdowns scoring 27.4 fantasy points. Moore also led the Jets with 93 Air Yards in week nine. While the rookie’s breakout may be stymied by the return of Corey Davis to the lineup, Moore remains a viable play in all formats with the hopes that he will continue to see the field and continue to see a similar Hog Rate as the aforementioned Davis.

Jakobi Meyers has posted three consecutive games under double digit fantasy points and hasn’t finished as a top 24 wide receiver on the week since week four. However, he continues to see significant target volume in the Patriots offense averaging 8 targets per game. Still without a touchdown on the season and an unlikely bet to score this week, Meyers remains a salary saving cash game play. 

Aaron Jones should see significantly high roster levels if Davante Adams misses another matchup, and rightfully so. Keep an eye on A.J. Dillon as well. Rodgers is one of the best – if not the best – at finding open receivers downfield, yet Dillon still has a 22.6-percent target rate on routes run. With Jordan Love at the helm, Dillon just needs four or five to get in the end zone and return value.

Look for Dak Prescott to be a contrarian play, as most people will be fading this Denver-Dallas contest. Stacking him with Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper could net you two of the top options on the slate. Running it back with the aforementioned Jeudy or one of the running backs could be interesting as a dart throw. I know these running backs are more expensive than most dart throws, but trying to guess which one will be utilized is just that; a dart throw. 

Put some respect on Patrick Mahomes and take the OVER on his passing yards line this week. My confidence in this take is driven by the sheer passing volume that the Chiefs have displayed this season. Mahomes ranks top-3 in many passing opportunity metrics. This game has a decent points total of 48, so Mahomes will continue to air it out to stay competitive because their defense has no chance of slowing down anything.

I love this Zack Moss line because the Bills are 13.5 point favorites against the feeble Jaguars, so game script will naturally lend to running back volume for Buffalo. In fact, Buffalo has a +8.65 (No. 1) Game Script score, so leading early and often is certainly in the cards this weekend. Additionally, Buffalo runs the ball at a high-rate, with 28.7 (No. 9) Team Run Plays Per Game. All things considered, Moss will receive ample opportunity to compile rushing and receiving yards in a cake matchup.

D.J. Moore’s fantasy season has been a a wild roller coaster. Through his first four games, Moore averaged 22.4 Fantasy Points Per Game and averaged 110.5 Air Yards per game. However, in his last four games Moore has averaged only 10.7 Fantasy Points Per Game despite averaging roughly the same, 103.5 Air Yards, on a per game basis. This recent lack of production has driven down Moore’s price and he is without a doubt a buy low. 

DeVonta Smith is setting up again as the contrarian play of the week. He scored only 2.5 fantasy points last week against the hapless Lions in a game where his team scored over 40 points. With key injuries to the Chargers secondary this week, Smith should be able to rebound in a game that the Eagles may be forced to throw a lot to keep up with the Chargers.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Ezekiel Elliott and Devontae Booker can be used in both cash games and tournaments due to their usage, and I also like them in GPPs as well. Mike Davis and James Robinson are players I would not roster in any format this week. Zack Moss is a GPP only play for me, especially if playing 20 or more lineups.