Results for: "backfield breakdown"

XFL DFS might actually be solved already. Jamming in Phillip Walker ($12,00) seems to always be the right move. His 32.2 DraftKings points per game are more than ten points ahead of the next closest player. There’s enough value on the slate to pay up for him and his price will be prohibitive enough to keep some people from rostering him.

We’re three weeks into the XFL’s inaugural season. No running back has hit the century mark in a game on the ground and no back has three scores on the season. Lance Dunbar’s ($6,700) 7.7 targets per game are worth more than any traditional back’s carries.

Don’t dip outside the five good quarterbacks, with one exception. Matt McGloin was benched in Week 2, allowing Marquise Williams ($6,400) to take the field. Williams was a serviceable passer, going four of eight for 50 yards, but has massive rushing appeal. He rushed for 948 yards during his final season at North Carolina. Should he get the start, he’s viable for both cash games and tournaments because of his price and rushing prowess.

Instead of following carries, look for running backs who are seeing pass game work and are on good offenses. Donnel Pumphrey ($7,000) showed up in Week 2 by leading the Defenders with 12 carries and netting five targets. Pumphrey’s college resume speaks for itself. He holds the NCAA record with 7,444 career yards from scrimmage, 1,158 of which came through the air. He won’t have an enormous share of DC’s carries, but he more than makes up for that with receptions.

The comical values that popped up in the XFL’s first week are no longer present. Both DraftKings and Fanduel got a grip on pricing, but there’s still enough cheap plays to get to Phillip Walker ($10,600). Houston decimated the LA Wildcats in their first game and still passed the ball more than 70-percent of the time. This offense is the XFL’s version of Jameis Winston and the Bucs. Walker will be chalky but he’s worth paying for in cash, and there are many ways to make lineups that feature him unique for tournaments.

Darius Victor is the best way to save at a fluky running back position without punting entirely. The Guardians never relinquished control of their game versus Tampa Bay and wound up running 44 total plays, seven fewer than the next-lowest team. This week New York faces DC, an early favorite to win the league, which should force them to crank up the pace. Among the only runners seeing work in all phases, Victor is the best value back.

L.A.’s Josh Johnson and Dallas’ Landry Jones are both dealing with injuries and should be considered game-time decisions. If either gets a clean bill of health, they’re the safest play of the week. The duo has the most NFL experience by far, with each having over 1,300 passing yards in the majors. For the price, look to Landry. He’ll be operating the most successful collegiate passing attack, one that he played in during his time at Oklahoma.

The only player who projects to dominate their backfield is former Seahawk, Colt, Cowboy and Packer: Christine Michael. He’s a name people know and will likely be one of, if not the highest-owned rusher on the slate. St. Louis made Michael the first running back taken in the Skill Players Draft. They chose not to take another back until the seventh round. The Battlehawks also have the least appealing quarterback in Jordan Ta’amu. They’re likely to lean on the run unless Ta’amu impresses early.

If running George Kittle at MVP, Jimmy Garoppolo ($14,000) in the flex is a near must-play. Kittle’s 26.5-percent Dominator Rating in the regular season was third among qualified tight ends. If he goes off, that means the 49ers’ passing game goes off. Garoppolo’s price tag makes him far too expensive to play in any scenario other than San Francisco hanging in a shootout with the Chiefs.

For Chiefs, the cheap options are Mecole Hardman ($6,000) and Demarcus Robinson ($6,500). Both are big-play threats tethered to Patrick Mahomes, but last week may have signaled a shift in their roles. How can anyone look at a miniature Tyreek Hill with signs pointing to a larger role and then opt for Robinson at $500 more?

In cash and tournaments, both Travis Kelce ($7,800) and George Kittle ($7,00) are great plays. Even running both in the same lineup is an option and is likely the best option in cash this week. Kittle is a must-stack for those playing Jimmy Garoppolo in tournaments. He’s accounted for 26.5-percent of his team’s passing yards and scores, second to only Mark Andrews among tight ends.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,600) and the 49ers are 7.5-point home-favorites this week, and they are a team that has excelled in that spot this year. They average a 6.6-point differential versus the spread when they’re favored at home and their games average an additional 4.6 points more than the total would indicate in this scenario. If Garoppolo can parlay his deep ball accuracy into a shootout, pivoting off KC/TEN stacks will be the path to win tournaments.

Damien Williams ($7,300) is a great cash play because of the discrepancy between his price and volume. Williams has struggled to stay healthy this year, but his last four full games have been telling. He averaged 18.3 touches for 120 total yards and 1.1 scores. In the 2018 playoffs, Andy Reid chose to make him their every-down back and it paid off for the Chiefs and for his fantasy investors. Run right back to the well this year.

Allen Lazard has played on at least half of the Packers snaps for the past seven weeks and he’s earned a particularly lucrative role in the past two. His 39 and 25 routes run were second on the team in both weeks. They were also season-highs for Lazard. On a site that disproportionately rewards touchdowns, the role of Aaron Rodgers’ second receiver is cash viable at $5,400.

The 49ers have the second-highest team total of the slate at 25.5, and Jimmy Garoppolo has shown a decent amount of upside this season. His three games with four passing scores are second only to Lamar Jackson. Jimmy GQ was a top-10 passer in 2019 by a number of advanced metrics. Most importantly, he’s the No. 1 Deep Ball passer by completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks, an important skill for tournament-winning signal callers to possess.

Raheem Mostert ($6,800) is the lead back for a 7.5-point home favorite and still may end up the least popular starting running back on a slate with four teams. He’s seen double-digit carries in each of the past five games and has scored a touchdown in six straight. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida have peaked at six and seven touches respectively over the previous five. Mostert is possibly the only way to roster low-owned running back touches on Saturday.

The Sunday slate features the two highest totals of the weekend, so the cash options at quarterback are much more bountiful. However, Russell Wilson ($8,200) is the only one with a rushing floor. Wilson ended the 2019 regular season with 75 (No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks) carries, 13 (No. 8) red zone carries and 342 (No. 6) rushing yards. Between his rushing production and passing efficiency, there are too few ways for Wilson to fail to not play him in cash.

The blueprint for Dallas Goedert chalk week was set a few days ago when Joshua Perkins ($5,100) outscored him by 4.5 points. Goedert played every snap and saw 10 targets. However, Perkins took the field for 78.4-percent of the Eagles’ snaps and was targeted six times. All it takes is one touchdown swing for Perkins to put up more fantasy points than Goedert, who will still be upwards of 10 times as popular. This is the type of leverage that tournament players dream of.

Josh Allen ($8,200) is the preferred target in GPP’s, with no player bringing forth his level of upside. As always, there’s serious rushing upside with Allen. He ended the 2019 regular season with 109 (No. 2 among qualified quarterbacks) carries, 22 (No. 2) red zone carries and nine (No. 1) rushing touchdowns. A multi-touchdown game on the ground likely breaks the entire slate, and that’s well within his range of outcomes.

If playing Josh Allen at quarterback, John Brown ($6,800) is so highly correlated with him that we have to fit him into our lineups. Most of Allen’s deep pass volume has come through Brown. He’s in rarefied company based on his volume, and Allen has done a phenomenal job feeding him the ball, evidence by a 7.0 (No. 13) Target Quality Rating. Against a Houston defense that allows an NFL fourth-most 267.2 passing yards per game, how can we not go overweight on the Brown/Allen combo?