Results for: "backfield breakdown"

While notoriously a run-first team, the Seattle Seahawks were actually No. 27 in the NFL in rushing attempts in 2021. Their finishes in this category have fluctuated wildly in the last half-decade. It seems that much of that up-and-down is due to Pete Carroll’s internal struggle between letting Russ cook and sticking with his personal preference to establish the run. Now, Russell Wilson is gone. And Carroll’s comments this offseason make it clear that the Seahawks intend to be a run-first football team going forward.

Rashaad Penny is a low key win-now piece that can be had in the relative scrap heap of dynasty startups. And I don’t think it’s out of the question that he’s more productive in 2022 than guys like David Montgomery or J.K. Dobbins. The Seahawks want to run the ball. Penny has a consistent history of positive team-relative efficiency. He’s at the age apex and presumably healthy at the same time that Chris Carson seems to no longer be either one. If it’s ever going to happen, 2022 is the year.

Only once in the last decade has a Doug Pederson-led offense been willing to run the ball more often than league average in neutral Game Script situations. Pairing that pass-friendly philosophy with the strong possibility that the Jaguars are once again trailing in most of their games next season probably means that we shouldn’t expect high carry totals out of Jacksonville in 2022.

James Robinson is a legitimate talent and one of the best pure runners in the league. Last season marks the second straight year that he’s led an NFL backfield while posting positive team-relative efficiency numbers. His BAE Rating and RSR marks in 2020 were in the 54th and 90th-percentiles, respectively. There are a lot of moving parts in this backfield that make it difficult to navigate in dynasty, but I view that more as an opportunity than as a problem.

James Conner was not good as the lead runner. Largely due to his performance in short-yardage and other obvious running situations, he posted a quality Relative Success Rate, but he was pretty bad otherwise. His YPC+ is in the 15th-percentile. Given his basically seeing the same box counts as the team’s other backs, there’s not much excuse for his inefficiency. The Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating he posted is a 21st-percentile mark; the lowest in the entire league among backs who led their teams in attempts.

A bet on Conner as a high-end fantasy option in 2022 is a bet on two unlikely developments coming to fruition at once: having an elite touchdown rate in back-to-back seasons, and bucking the trend of running backs over the 25-year mark suddenly losing their effectiveness and then fading into the ether. Neither of those are bets I’m willing to make on their own, and I’m certainly not going to parlay them. A better wager would be on Eno Benjamin, a guy who was both productive and efficient in college, to bounce back from a disappointing small-sample rookie year and play well in the RB2 role.

The Steelers are simply a pass-happy team in general. Ben Roethlisberger is gone, Mitchell Trubisky (or maybe a rookie?) is in at quarterback. And more changes are sure to come for the Steelers offensive personnel. Maybe, maybe, we’ll see some shift in play-calling and overall philosophy as a result. However, this pass-heavy approach is something we’ve seen for years now in Pittsburgh. So it seems unlikely that they’d swing their pendulum fully toward a high-volume rushing attack.

Leave the Stone Age. Stop citing Najee Harris’ low raw efficiency numbers as a reason why he was overrated as a prospect or should be faded in dynasty. He was a great player in college and he’s a great player now, from both productivity and efficiency standpoints.

Simply, the Titans have one of the most run-happy offenses in the league, regardless of situation. It’s a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg question to ponder whether that philosophy would persist if Henry was not on the team (though their situational rush rate over expectation was still +8-percent in games he didn’t play last year), but he’s under contract for another three years. The Titans should remain one of the highest volume rushing teams in the NFL in 2022.

Very often, the decline for top-tier running backs comes suddenly and without warning. With that in mind, the performance that Derrick Henry gave us last year should be viewed as a gift. While still providing your fantasy teams with elite raw production, he whispered in the ears of anyone listening that the end is coming. It may come with one last 1,000-yard swan song at 4.1 yards per carry. But it’s better to be out early than late. The reign of King Henry is coming to end.

After running the ball the third-fewest times in the league in 2020, the Detroit Lions upped their rushing volume a bit last season under new head coach Dan Campbell. Two years ago, they averaged 22.9 attempts per game. In 2021, they ran the ball an average of 25.1 times per contest. That average ranked No. 21 in the NFL, and was a carry-and-a-half lower than the league-wide 26.6 average. In their ideal world, Detroit would probably run the ball more than they actually have.

I don’t want to overreact to one season of poor play. But at this point in D’Andre Swift’s NFL career, the 2021 season represents 50-percent of his games played and almost 60-percent of his total carries. I loved Swift the prospect as much as anyone.But let’s exercise some caution. Don’t crown him just yet.

New England is simply a run-heavy team, and they have been since Tom Brady left following the 2019 season. While the development of Mac Jones and the departure of long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels might mean a slight change in gameplan, the Bill Belichick establishment is still holding strong. And it’s probably reasonable to anticipate the Patriots rushing at least slightly more often than league average in 2022.

If I’m on the clock in the middle rounds of a dynasty startup, I’m probably letting somebody else pull the first trigger on a Patriot running back before I scoop up the other guy. If I’m holding Damien Harris on an existing roster, I’m looking to pivot to Rhamondre Stevenson through trade while adding some sort of rookie pick or lottery ticket taxi stash. The difference is small, but I think Stevenson is the better long-term bet.

Seeing Jerick McKinnon’s prevalence for the 49ers offense amidst injuries is important because it shows that there is a place of relevance for a pass-catching running back in San Francisco. While Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson were efficient with their targets, they did not receive enough to be top fantasy RBs. A physical runner and learned pass-catcher with Kyle Shanahan and Trey Lance’s trust is the key to unlocking an RB1 from the San Fran backfield.

RBs can quickly fall out of Kyle Shanahan’s favor. However, they can also quickly fall in favor, because he tends to utilize a “hot hand” approach more than a “bell cow” approach. Raheem Mostert and Wayne Gallman have the experience to heat up, while Trey Sermon has the size and Elijah Mitchell has the athleticism. However, will they be used enough in the passing game to warrant fantasy RB1 status?

David Montgomery was fantasy football’s RB6 on a points-per-game basis last season. His glut of opportunity led him to average 100.5 Total Yards per Game and 3.6 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Receptions per Game, score 10 (No. 10) Total Touchdowns, and produce 11 top-24 weekly finishes, including six consecutive top-eight finishes to end the season. With the signing of Damien Williams, however, Montgomery is a clear fade this year based on ADP in redraft leagues.

From Weeks 1-3 when Tarik Cohen was healthy, David Montgomery was fantasy football’s RB26 on a points-per-game basis. Now enter Damien Williams. Usually, targeting ambiguous backfields creates one of the biggest edges in redraft leagues for fantasy gamers, but in the case of the Bears, not one back will offer stand-alone fantasy value unless an injury occurs.

Phillip Walker ($12,00) is still the unquestioned best fantasy passer, posting 29.5 points weekly. Week 4 was a season-low for him and he still topped 20 points. Walker leads the XFL in attempts (146), yards (987), and touchdowns (12). He’s a certainty each week, no matter his opponent or game-script. Injuries and slow reactions to changes in usage have kept enough value at other positions that Walker continues to be viable in cash.

Keenan Reynolds ($6,500) has been targeted 6.5 times per game through four weeks but targets mean nothing when they’re coming Brandon Silvers’ misguided arm. B.J.  Daniels may not be an elite passer but based on Silvers’ dismal performance, he would at least be a minor upgrade. His rushing would also help extend plays, allowing all of Seattle’s receivers to find some open space.