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I’m all for outliers. I root for every UDFA in the league, and I’m still waiting for Tanner Gentry to get back on an active roster, but the level of enthusiasm for Calvin Ridley given his complete lack of production before the age of 20 is baffling.

Tyreek Hill is the ultimate outlier. With only a 19.4-percent College Dominator Rating (21st-percentile), he gained 1,183 receiving yard last season and became the lead wide receiver for the Chiefs. He’s now flirting with a first-round ADP.

Barkley’s 32.2-percent (70th percentile) College Dominator Rating, a running back’s total team yards and touchdowns in college, indicates he is far from the exceptional prospect that his frequent top-5 mock draft position suggests. 

Saquon Barkley does look electric and could impress at the NFL Scouting Combine, but the Cleveland Browns would be better of promoting Duke Johnson or drafting Rashaad Penny than drafting Barkley with a top-5 pick.

Lamar Jackson’s electric rushing capability combined with a strong throwing arm will make him the most difficult player to defend to moment he steps onto an NFL field.

While Josh Rosen has become one of the most buzzworthy quarterback prospects in recent memory, his go-to receiver has Jordan Lasley is the most under-discussed top wide receiver prospect in the NFL Draft.

Nelson Agholor’s unsustainable touchdown rate has inflated his value across dynasty leagues, but trade value matters. With Super Bowl hero brand equity in tow, Agholor’s trade value rose instantaneously, which required an upstack of his dynasty ranking.

Jordan Reed fantasy football prospects dimmed when Washing acquired Alex Smith. While Smith heavily targeted Travis Kelce in recent years, Kelce’s 9.6 average target depth and fell well outside the top-10 NFL tight ends. Given Smith’s proclivity to throw short and run in the red zone, the loss of Kirk Cousins diminishes even a healthy Reed’s dynasty value.

Kittle’s measurables compare favorably to some of the most prominent players at his position. Kittle’s demonstrated speed, burst and agility at the NFL Scouting Combine, summarized by his 124.1 (88th-percentile) SPARQ-x Score, was superior to Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz.

Kittle enjoyed an understated rookie season. 260 of his 515 receiving yards came after contact, the 7th most at the tight end spot. The same was true for his Kittle’s 8.2 yards per target was equally impressive. Incidentally, Kelce managed 8.5, while Ertz trailed them both with 7.5.

Michael Gallup has very striking similarities to retired Falcons receiver, Roddy White. Both receivers finished their final college seasons with 1,400+ receiving yards each.

Remember the name, Michael Gallup, he should be the best receiver from the 2018 class. He runs crisp routes, secure the football in traffic, and run over, around, and away from defenders.

Stefon Diggs is the most egregious recent example of Breakout Age oblivion, lasting until the 5th round in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Vikings finally selected Diggs with the No. 146 pick, the steal of the NFL Draft.

Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley is frequently mocked in the top-10, suggesting the industry has not learned much about the dangers of selecting players with a below-average Breakout Age in the early rounds. Ridley’s college performance metrics point to a player who will underperform his draft stock at the next level.

Russell Wilson’s 10.3 college YPA is the highest in the PlayerProfiler database, and Marcus Mariota’s 10.0 college YPA is No. 4 among current NFL quarterbacks. No quarterback on PlayerProfiler has reached a 10.5 college YPA until Baker Mayfield. He did it… twice.

Josh Allen perfectly meets that prototype, standing 6-5 at 234 pounds. Scouts love his strong arm, but all the physical tools shouldn’t matter when you throw just 16 touchdowns in your final season while playing in the Mountain West Conference.

It may be difficult to overlook Trent Taylor’s uninspiring measurables. However, Wes Welker possesses a similar profile and sustained success in the not-too-distant past. Taylor and Welker may have had similar college careers and workout metrics, but Welker didn’t see 50 targets until year two at age 24.

Trent Taylor notched 60 targets as a rookie. If he continues to exceed Wes Welker’s production (as he has since college), there’s no reason Taylor can’t log 100-120 targets next season for 800-900 yards and 4-5 TDs. 

The sheer volume of running backs that appear on the Win Rate leaderboard the past two seasons necessarily prompts a reconsideration of Zero RB strategy. For example, Todd Gurley posted a staggering 30.5-percent Win Rate in 2017, which was 10-percent higher than any wide receiver.

Over the past five years, running back involvement in the passing game has steadily increased. More offensive coordinators are looking towards the running back as a featured pass option, and not just on 3rd down.