Leonard Fournette was great pick for best ball last season. Chase Edmonds should operate as a breather back plus.
Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison are similar to Trayveon Williams. Ben Roethlisberger’s outlier 2018 has led fantasy gamers to overdraft James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
It’s possible Leonard Fournette fulfills the final year of his contract with Jacksonville before moving on to free agency in 2021. However, a split between he and the Jaguars might be exactly what both sides need. The team would receive compensation they otherwise wouldn’t if Fournette left in free agency. They’d also have the opportunity to observe the younger backs on the team. The change would give him the chance to reestablish himself as a quality starter in the league.
When 2021 rolls around, the Ravens backfield will look much different. Mark Ingram will be in consideration to be cut if J.K. Dobbins meets expectations and Gus Edwards will be a free agent (though, a “team friendly” extension isn’t out of the question). The Ravens could hold on to Justice Hill for the backup role when the dust settles next season, but moving him now might prove beneficial, and would really open things up for Dobbins, whom they are so excited about.
Standing at 5-7, Boston Scott packs a punch with his 4.45 (91st-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-yard dash and 10.82 (97th-percentile) Agility Score. Scott finished 2019 on a tear, totaling 350 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the final four games. Although undersized, he fits perfectly in the Eagles scheme as a satellite back and spot starter with RB2 upside.
While Melvin Gordon was holding out in 2019, Justin Jackson was busy competing with Austin Ekeler for touches. In three weeks as the primary backup, Jackson averaged eight touches per game to 19 for Ekeler. Jackson’s ability to evade tacklers with a 10.88 (96th-percentile) Agility Score allowed him to gain 6.9 Yards Per Carry and nine first downs on only 29 (No. 82) carries. In the event Ekeler goes down, it would be Jackson that would get the call to replace him, not the rookie Joshua Kelley.
DeSean Jackson has the highest ceiling among all players drafted outside the top 100 and it is not close. His floor is zero and its unlikely he plays a full season but, at an ADP of 148.11, he is an easy bench stash. Jackson can be the WR1 any given week, and three to five monster weeks is all that’s needed to validate the pick. His 42 career catches of 50-plus yards are the most by any player in the history of the NFL.
With an ADP of 206.98, Randall Cobb is nearly an afterthought in Best Ball drafts. The Texans gave him a considerable amount of money given his age, and his competition for short targets is non-existent. There is no tight end of consequence on Houston’s roster and Deshaun Watson has a tendency to prolong plays rather than simply dump off to the RBs. Etch Cobb’s name in with pen as your WR7/8 in Best Ball drafts.
There is reason for optimism regarding Jimmy Garoppolo this year. San Francisco’s gameplan last year was to grind the rock and let their elite defense win games. With defensive efficiency being extremely difficult to carry over from year to year, this team will be forced to throw more after ranking No. 4 in Game Script per PlayerProfiler. Additionally, Garoppolo displayed an unheralded tendency to tuck and run with 46 (No. 13 among qualified quarterbacks) rush attempts last year.
Baker Mayfield has not had the strongest start to his career, but do not lose sight of the fact that this was one of the best QB prospects of all time. He put up a 92.6 (97th-percentile) College QBR with an 11.5 (98th-percentile) Yards per Attempt mark and an 18.4 (100th-percentile) Breakout Age. The pieces haven’t come together yet in Cleveland, but this may be the year they do given the weapons at Mayfield’s disposal. This looks like a situation for a top 10 fantasy QB.
Alshon Jeffrey will vacate a 22.6-percent (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and 15.4-percent (No. 20) Hog Rate while he recovers from his Lisfranc injury. Dallas Goedert exceeded an 80-percent Snap Share five times from Week 11 to Week 17 while Jeffrey was out last year. During that time, Goedert had four games with 30-plus routes run and finished as the fantasy TE13 or higher in all four.
The Dolphins turned to two players to carry their passing game when Preston Williams was placed on IR. DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki combined for 41-percent of Miami’s targets from Weeks 10-17 last season. Gesicki finished as a top-15 TE in five of the eight games that Williams missed, and Parker finished as a top-24 WR in six of those games. If Williams struggles to perform in his post-ACL season, look for Parker and Gesicki to pick up the slack in the receiving game.
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The poster child for the 2020 sophomore tight end breakout is Green Bay’s Jace Sternberger. There are many intriguing reasons why this is the case. There is the shallow nature of the Packers passing game for a start. The team famously did little to strengthen their receiving corps this offseason, either via the draft or free agency. They signed Devin Funchess, who then chose to opt out of the 2020 season, leaving Davante Adams without any serious competition in the passing game.
Foster Moreau faces significant obstacles to increased playing time in 2019. Though Jason Witten should only last a season in Sin City, while the expected salary cap squeeze in 2021 may impact Darren Waller’s future with the team. The Raiders can release him and save the entirety of his $6.27 million salary for the season. Moreau may be able to make some noise as a touchdown-dependent player in 2020, but he can make the Raiders tight end spot his own in 2021.
Austin Ekeler seized the primary back role last season, but don’t forget that Justin Jackson was a dominant college producer with explosive athleticism. When called up, Jackson has been an efficient runner, and most importantly, a truly dynamic receiver. The Chargers want to run the ball, and Jackson will have a sizable part to play.
Available in the last round of every draft, Justin Watson looks the part of third year breakout wide receiver given his dominant college career and 85th-percentile speed and burst. After posting a 40-percent Slot Rate last season, he is well-positioned to play when Tampa goes 3-wide.
Given the shortened offseason, the chemistry Jonnu Smith has already formed with Ryan Tannehill is super important. An 85.7-percent Contested Catch Rate on seven targets combined with a 4.4-percent (No. 2 among qualified tight ends) Drop Rate and 89.7-percent (No. 7) True Catch Rate will ensure he remains a trusted component of a passing game destined to see more work.
Despite drawing 10 (No. 6) Deep Targets and averaging 9.9 (No. 5) yards of Average Target Distance, Dawson Knox had a 90.0-percent (No. 5) Catchable Target Rate and a 6.3 (No. 3) Target Quality Rating. He averaged 13.9 (No. 3) Yards per Reception and 7.8 (No. 14) Yards per Target. Entering year two, he’s more qualified to play Buffalo’s deep threat role than recently acquired Stefon Diggs, a splash play possession receiver in all but last season.
