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Three DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week 2

by Taylor Williams, September 19, 2020

With Kenny Golladay ruled out again, the Lions facing a burnable Packers defense in Week 2. Only priced at $3800 on DraftKings, Quintez Cephus is close to a free square this week. While missing his top target and facing mostly positive Game Script, Matthew Stafford still dished out 42 (No. 6) pass attempts. Combine that passing volume with his 8.8 (No. 6) Air Yards per Attempt and we have a QB ready to put up massive numbers.

This week, the Chargers face the fearsome Kansas City Chiefs. Given the offense they’ll be going against, they will have no choice but to unleash Taylor given the likelihood that they face negative Game Script. With Taylor costing only $5300 (QB23) and Williams at only $4200 (tied for WR60 and $1500 cheaper than Keenan Allen), this stack presents maximum upside while unlocking salary for a loaded RB corps.

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NFL Monkey Knife Fight Props: Week 2

by Cody Carpentier, September 19, 2020

In Week 1, Davante Adams smoked Minnesota’s young defensive backs for 156 yards on his own. The Packers receivers racked up 315 yards, second to only Atlanta’s 401 yards. Parris Campbell and T.Y. Hilton bring upper 90th-percentile 40-Yard-Dash scores into matchups with inexperienced slow corners. Minnesota’s lack of speed was evident on Sunday, giving up three receptions of over 38 yards. 

The Podfather’s Monkey Knife Fight Prop of The Week comes from Nashville, Tennessee. We see Jacksonville leaning on James Robinson after he received all 16 running back carries for Jacksonville in Week 1. The only UDFA to ever start at RB in Week 1, Robinson averaged 3.9 yards per carry in his pro debut. Expect the Jags to continue their slow-paced offensive approach from Week 1, pounding the rock early to counter Derrick Henry.

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Week 2 Usage Rates: Thursday Night Football Edition

by Joshua Kellem, September 19, 2020

Nick Chubb’s fantasy football value should’ve never been questioned after Week 1. Against an inferior defense in Week 2, the Browns offense did what fans wanted to see, dominate. A third of Kareem Hunt’s touches, though, came on the Browns’ second-to-last drive of the game, including nearly 50-percent of his total yardage. Hunt managed only eight touches prior to this. This is an important note for fantasy gamers with Hunt on their roster.

On the heels of a report that he’s on his way out of Cleveland, Odell Beckham captivated fans and teammates with his 43-yard touchdown grab on Thursday night. Beckham paced the Browns’ receiving corps in all major receiving categories as well. He led the way with six targets, four receptions, 74 yards, and a touchdown. No other receiver totaled more than three, indicating Beckham is the alpha in the offense. That’s important considering Kevin Stefanski deploys a run-first attack.

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Upside Wide Receivers For Week 2 GPPs

by Alex Johnson, September 18, 2020

Parris Campbell is priced at $4,500 on Draftkings for a matchup with a vulnerable Vikings secondary that was shredded for 364 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1. The Colts are three point underdogs in one of the higher over/under games on the slate. It sets up nicely to be another high-volume game for Campbell and the passing attack. He’s one evaded tackle away from a long score and massive fantasy outing.

When identifying wide receivers with GPP-winning upside, we look for guys seeing downfield and red zone targets. That’s Mike Williams’ game all the way. He perfectly fits the mold of a good tournament play. Los Angeles is an 8.5-point home underdog against the league’s best offense, so Game Script should work in his favor. At $4,200 on Draftkings, we won’t find a much better value in Week 2.

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 2

by Matthew M. Stevens, September 18, 2020

Certain advanced metrics signal that Keenan Allen will rebound this week against the Chiefs. That makes him an appealing play at his price point ($5,700 on DraftKings) and projected low ownership. He played 97.1-percent of the snaps in Week 1 and earned 47.6-percent of the Chargers’ Air Yards. More importantly, Allen’s 75 Unrealized Air Yards ranked No. 7 among qualified wide receivers, signaling that there’s more meat on the bone.

Tyler Lockett sets up as an intriguing mid-tier price point play ($6,300 on DraftKings) who projects to garner slim ownership this week. With 4.40 (92nd-percentile) speed, Lockett lives his life one play away from a touchdown. It’s a big part of the reason he ranked No. 9 in Target Separation last season. It’s also why he shows a penchant for booming and busting, posting the No. 7-ranked Weekly Volatility score (10.8) among receivers with at least 40 catches.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 2

by Taylor Smith, September 17, 2020

With Marlon Mack’s season-ending Achilles injury, Jonathan Taylor is in an absolute smash spot this week. Philip Rivers carried over his career love for targeting RBs, hooking up with Taylor and Nyheim Hines for 14 of his 36 completions. Taylor saw six of those, good for No. 2 among RBs in Week 1. The Vikings are a softer matchup than most think, ranking No. 27 in Defense Rushing DVOA against the Packers last week. Should his receiving volume continue, Taylor will flirt with top-5 RB numbers.

It didn’t take long for James Conner to realize his No. 1-ranked Injury Probability. His first quarter ankle injury paved the way for Benny Snell to be featured as the poster boy of Week 2 DFS. The second-year Steelers RB reportedly slimmed down from his 224-pound frame and looked good on Monday night. James Conner has yet to practice, meaning the Steelers will likely lean on Snell regardless of his status. He’s affordable and is a lock for 20 carries in an explosive offense.

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Utilizing Weighted Opportunity to Identify RB Buy Lows

by Eric Lindberg, September 17, 2020

It’s bad process to devalue Devin Singletary just days after he led the league in routes run at the running back position. Fortunately for those seeking to buy low, that’s exactly what’s happening here. There was nothing noteworthy in rookie Zack Moss’ 12-touch, 27-yard performance that suggests he’s ready to usurp Singletary as the lead back. Moss’ offseason hype and Singletary’s underwhelming Week 1 has opened a buy-low window to be taken advantage of.

While David Montgomery’s 12.5 Weighted Opportunities in Week 1 might not stand out, it’s encouraging that the coaching staff deemed the second-year running back healthy enough to play over Tarik Cohen for the most part. The 23-year old looked genuinely improved over his rookie season, and his 35.7-percent Juke Rate and five Evaded Tackles back that up. Given Montgomery suffered no setbacks, his share of the backfield workload will only grow as the season moves along. 

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Dynasty Market Movers: Week 1 Report

by Steve Smith, September 17, 2020

A trend that unfolded in Week 1 was Phillip Rivers’ connection with his trusted slot receiver. Lined up in the slot on 55 snaps, good for a 96.5-percent Slot Rate, this receiving weapon now wears the number 15 and goes by the name Parris Campbell. Finishing as the WR27 in PPR leagues, Campbell’s nine targets matched T.Y. Hilton for the most among Colts wideouts. After a strong showing in training camp, a solid Week 1 performance has the former Buckeye’s dynasty stock on the rise.

Harrison Bryant played 31 snaps, good for a 42.4-percent (No. 44) Snap Share, in Cleveland’s Week 1 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He ran a route on 30.8-percent of his snaps and caught one of two targets for five yards. With David Njoku parked on injured reserve, an uptick in Bryant’s usage is on tap. The next three weeks (at minimum) may be enough to put him on the radar of even casual fantasy gamers. Monitor his stock closely and be ready to act.

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Week 1 Usage Rates For Fantasy Football: Tyler Higbee Is Fine, Devin Singletary Is A Buy-Low

by Joshua Kellem, September 17, 2020

Before the season, Devin Singletary’s fantasy football value entered into a quintessential touch squeeze. Basically, both Singletary and Zack Moss are capable of handling the majority of touches in the Bills backfield. This leads to both sharing it almost 50/50. Where Moss may have found an edge is inside the red-zone, totaling three carries from inside the five to Singletary’s zero. Both backs are no more than Flex plays (for now).

Whereas J.K. Dobbins’ second touchdown came after the game was decided, he still managed to lead the backfield with two Goal Line Carries, converting both. Ingram was not used at the goal line, which is potentially troubling after he registered 13 (No. 2 among qualified running backs) such carries in 2019. He should be given one more week in starting lineups to prove himself before we consider other arrangements.

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Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 1: Will Fuller World Tour

by Kyle Dvorchak, September 15, 2020

Will Fuller’s Week 1 performance confirmed the priors that he would be an alpha receiver on the Houston offense. He hit 123 yards of total target depth on 10 targets. He caught eight balls for 112 yards and was the only Houston receiver to catch more than three balls versus the Chiefs. Buy him before he hits 150 yards or scores multiple times in a game. He’s a WR1 going forward and paying anything less is a steal.

Hayden Hurst only drew five targets against the Seahawks in Week 1, the same number as Todd Gurley. Both earned a 9.8-percent Target Share. That isn’t going to cut it for Hurst to post fantasy TE1 numbers. He has never been a special player and this performance shows that he’s certainly not capable of getting his in an offense stacked with pass-catching options. See if the person who has Logan Thomas will let you buy high with Hurst as a bargaining chip.

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