Time to pivot away from Mike Evans in dynasty. The Kyle Pitts ADP needs a reality check.
Rondale Moore is about to melt faces at his regional pro day. Big expectations for Jalen Hurts this season.
Teams should not overpay for running backs in free agency, but they will. The only real candidate to earn a bumper payday this year is Aaron Jones. You can’t say that he has not been productive or efficient during his time with the Green Bay Packers. Since 2017, despite seeing the 18th-most Carries among all running backs (649), Jones has racked up 3,459 Rushing Yards, good for eight-most.
The splits between JuJu Smith-Schuster’s first two NFL seasons and his last two are quite dramatic. He settled back into his slot specialist role in 2020, leading all wide receivers with an 82.2-percent Slot Rate. Smith-Schuster finished the season with 97 (No. 7) Receptions on his 128 (No. 15) Targets, with a 95.1-percent (No. 6) True Catch Rate. He also scored nine (No. 9) Touchdowns. But he averaged a dismal 8.6 (No. 104) Yards per Reception and a dreary 6.5 (No. 96) Yards per Target.
With Zach Ertz likely out in Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts taking over the reigns at QB, Dallas Goedert has an appealing ceiling. Last season, he posted a +9.1 (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Production Premium and a +14.7-percent (No. 6) Target Premium. This is a highly efficient player on a team with an abundance of vacated targets and a potential upgrade at quarterback. He’s the perfect type of tight end to target in the middle rounds.
A great example of a player that needs to be targeted in upcoming startup drafts is Rams running back Cam Akers. The Rams showed late last season that they are ready to let the second-rounder roll. With Malcolm Brown likely gone, Akers has only Darrell Henderson to compete with. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the second-year back is primed for a big 2021. Oh yeah, he’ll be a youthful 22 years old when the season begins.
Amari Rodgers is the next slot monster in the NFL. Shi Smith is underrated. Najee Harris is an undoubtable bell cow.
Larry Rountree deserves more buzz.
Carson Wentz is a value in dynasty leagues because the perception of him is that he’s damaged goods. Those who have him in dynasty should hold. His value is the lowest it’s been in his career. He has one year in a better situation to turn his NFL career around. If struggles in 2021, it doesn’t change the value that cratered in 2020. But if he puts up a solid campaign in his age-29 season, then he regains significant trade value.
Don’t worry about a drop-off in Miles Sanders’ receiving volume; his 4.33 targets per game were identical in games that Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts started. After a disappointing 2020 season, he’s set to be a high-volume running back with better rushing opportunities provided by his run-threat quarterback, while still being involved in the passing game.
Why James Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins should made available for trade. Buying low on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerry Jeudy, and Denzel Mims.
A.J. Dillon has asymmetrical upside. Planting a flag on Jermar Jefferson.
James Robinson’s signing with the Jaguars as an undrafted free agent in the COVID year should never have gone unnoticed, especially given the rumor and innuendo that had been surrounding Leonard Fournette leading up to his eventual release. Regardless of how the rest of his career turns out, rising from the ashes of the undrafted to make a fantasy impact when given the chance will at least land him in the RotoUnderworld Fantasy Football Hall of Fame.
Though Ian Thomas has elite athleticism and upper-percentile weight-adjusted agility, two of the most predictive factors when looking for tight end breakouts, it’s always dangerous to overpay for potential relative to prior production or lack thereof. Despite the fact that his skill-set seemed to mesh well with that of incoming quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, his ADP remained manageable all summer, and I was convinced that this was the ultimate 2020 fantasy football value play.
On August 20, 2019, Warren Sharp dropped an article telling the world they were wrong about Lamar Jackson, who proceeded to score 415.7 fantasy points, the second-most ever scored by a quarterback. Not bad for an undersized running back with accuracy issues. Sharp warned everyone in 2019. I’m here to warn everyone in 2021. Don’t make the same mistake with Jalen Hurts that people did with Jackson in 2019!
With a full offseason of first-team reps, passing accuracy that can only go up, and a receiving core that will be better by default, Hurts’ floor is a top-12 QB in 2021 like we saw last year, but the sky is the ceiling. I called Dak Prescott leading quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2020. I’m here to say that in 2021, it will be Hurts as THE QB1 in fantasy football in 2021.
At this point in his career, Leonard Fournette will likely share backfield opportunities. With 132 (No. 32 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities and averages of 4.5 (No. 48) Yards Per Touch, and 0.98 (No. 46) Yards Created Per Touch, it indicates he isn’t overly explosive and productive with shared touches. The +5.9 (No. 24) Production Premium gives us a slight glimmer of hope, but he remains a dynasty sell-high after riding the “Playoff Lenny” hype.
After returning from a concussion in Week 12, David Montgomery averaged over 23 touches and 137 total yards per game with eight total touchdowns and 25.7 Fantasy Points per Game. From Weeks 12-17, he finished inside the top-8 each week among fantasy running backs. That’s the perfect definition for dynasty sell-high candidates – finished the season as an RB1, but realistically more of a mid or back-end RB2.
Carolina is a team with many needs, but also an exciting young core of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Second-year head coach Matt Rhule makes a splash by selecting national champion and Davey O’Brien Award winner Mac Jones. He played an outstanding senior season against an all-SEC schedule and further displayed his talents in front of Rhule and company at the Senior Bowl, which was the deciding factor for Jones over Trey Lance.
For two years, Terry McLaurin has taken the best of what opposing defenses could throw at him and the worst of what the WFT could provide him at QB, and has still come out the other end as a legitimate number one receiving threat. With the best QB prospects off the board, Washington finally adds another receiver to relieve some pressure from Scary Terry in the dynamic Rondale Moore.
