Results for: "rookie rb efficiency"

The 2019 LSU offense was arguably the most prolific of all time, meaning everyone produced. Thaddeus Moss only saw 51 targets, but he made the most of them. He hauled in 47 for 570 yards and four scores. Though Joe Burrow’s prolific passing season deflated Moss’ College Dominator to 10.0-percent (21st-percentile among qualified tight ends), making his stats seem less significant than they were. With a low share of team production, he never posted a breakout season by our metrics.

Moss’ relative lack of production along with his incomplete athletic profile will make it difficult for any NFL team to burn an early-round pick on him. That will make it harder for him to find the field as a rookie. In turn, his fantasy value also wouldn’t improve much in Year 1. One positive is that Moss’ final season at LSU showed that he has “it” in his range of outcomes. He won’t cost much, making him a low-risk flier for your team.

Laviska Shenault’s prolific sophomore campaign gives him a 19.9 (66th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age. Sophomore seasons are important for wide receivers and have proved to be early indicators of NFL success for studs like A.J. Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Shenault put himself in Brown and Smith-Schuster’s company as a prospect by tallying 68 receptions and 1,011 receiving yards in only nine games.

Despite his injury issues, Shenault leaves Colorado with a 35.1-percent (68th-percentile) College Dominator Rating. Given his college production in the Pac-12 and his fire hydrant-like build, it makes sense that he would be Best Comparable to 2019 rookie breakout A.J. Brown. He’s currently a Top-15 asset in PlayerProfiler’s 2020 Rookie Rankings. If selected early on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, he’ll be a screaming value in the second round of 2020 dynasty rookie drafts.

Michael Pittman was quietly one of the biggest winners at the NFL Combine. After weighing in at 6-4, 223-pounds, he ran a 4.52 (59th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard-dash, translating to a 111.2 (93rd-percentile) Speed Score. He performed well in the agility and explosion drills, registering an 11.10 (66th-percentile) Agility Score and a 122.6 (58th-percentile) Burst Score. Players who look like him tend to become valuable fantasy assets.

Pittman is in position to be an immediate plug-and-play WR2/WR3 on an NFL depth chart. He has the full route tree in his arsenal and can play both X-receiver or as a big slot. There are some big red flags in his production profile, though. His late breakout and lack of a meaningful role in the USC offense until his junior and senior seasons is concerning, as is his lack of production after the catch. With that said, he’s still a top-10 WR in this class and a solid second-round selection in dynasty rookie drafts.

Utah State’s Jordan Love is the most polarizing quarterback prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft Class. Standing 6-3 and weighing in at 224-pounds, he possesses the tantalizing size at quarterback which NFL GMs have traditionally loved. Unfortunately, in an age where front offices are incorporating analytics into their decision-making processes in unprecedented ways on and off the field, Love does not grade out as a blue-chip quarterback prospect. 

From a redraft perspective, Love’s 2020 impact depends entirely on his landing spot. Being drafted in his expected first round window places him in the realm of the third or fourth round in dynasty rookie drafts. His value will be contingent on whether or not his full athletic potential is realized on the field and not just during workouts. Expect spotty passing efficiency early in his career, but eye-popping weeks that keep his value steady throughout.

Gabriel Davis is the most under the radar wide receiver in the 2020 draft class. An early declare junior who started 38 games during his time at UCF, catching 152 passes for 2,552 yards and 23 touchdowns. His final season 17.2 yards per reception puts him in the 81st-percentile among qualified wide receivers and highlights that he’s not simply a possession receiver, but an explosive play-maker with the ball in hands at the next level.

Davis fits the profile of a wide receiver who is more than capable of delivering a surprise Top 24 finish in his career. His best comparable player is Zach Pascal, but being a slightly less agile Courtland Sutton is also in his range of outcomes. Currently, he has an ADP outside of the first five rounds according to Dynasty League Football’s rookie pick probability tool. Remember his name for your rookie drafts as a third round or later dart throw.

JaMycal Hasty possesses certain qualities that make him an appealing prospect. For example, his receiving skill-set stands out. Hasty recorded at least 25 receptions and 100-plus receiving yards in three of his four seasons at Baylor. He also showcased his athleticism on special teams, returning 16 kicks for 233 yards and taking his lone punt return 33 yards to the house as a junior. This versatility makes him a more appealing NFL prospect.

Hasty projects to be a bit player with upside in the NFL. A satellite back who, in the right situation, can handle 10-12 carries a game in addition to catching passes out of the backfield. That would make him a viable fantasy football asset. Taking on a specialist role similar to James White falls within Hasty’s range of outcomes. However, that would be his ceiling/best-case scenario. He’s going undrafted in rookie drafts and startups, but is well worth a flyer.

Jerry Jeudy dominated the work in Alabama’s offense as a sophomore, seeing a 20.8-percent Target Share and posting 1,315 yards with 14 scores. That stellar season gave him a 19.4 (82nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and secured him the Biletnikoff Award, the highest honor for a wide receiver. He also averaged an impressive 19.3 yards per reception that season, showing he has the ability to stretch the field with his speed.

While Jeudy certainly didn’t hurt his stock at the NFL Combine, his performance was somewhat lackluster. He measured 6-1, 193-pounds for a slender 25.5 Body Mass Index. He also ran a modest 4.45 (80th-percentile) 40-yard dash when some people projected him to hit the 4.3’s. Those numbers make him look shockingly comparable to his former teammate Calvin Ridley, but Jeudy has a far better profile based on his overall production and Breakout Age.

Baylor has a history of recruiting athletes to play the wide receiver position, and Denzel Mims is no exception. He was a successful multi-sport athlete in the Texas high school system, winning the 2015 Class 3A 200-meter state championship in track and field. More importantly, his high school football career saw him play quarterback, running back, wide receiver, cornerback and safety at various points. Despite a sexual assault scandal leaving the program for dead in 2017, Mims posted 1,087 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his first season as a starter.

Mims is a prototypical flanker at the NFL level, with the ability and athleticism to be a successful X-receiver. His Best Comparable Player is Chris Godwin, as if we needed more reason to be excited. Among the 21 rookie receivers with recorded Athleticism Scores, Mims ranks No. 4 with a 108.3 mark. He accounted for 38.9-percent of Baylor’s overall receiving production in his three seasons starting. He’s a locked-in Top 10 prospect, and the reason those with late first-round rookie draft picks can sleep easy at night.

Joe Burrow is the presumed first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Burrow to the Bengals is all but a done deal and Washington might as well be on the clock with the second pick. Burrow posted the best season ever for a college quarterback. He isn’t an athletic specimen but he does have the tools to evade defenders, make off-script plays, and scramble for bonus yardage relative to a stationary passer.

A blip on Burrow’s profile is his late Breakout Age. He did not get the chance to start a whole campaign until his age-21 season. Losing the starting gig at Ohio State to a sub-NFL passer in J.T. Barrett is either an indictment of Burrow’s skills or a crime by Urban Meyer and his coaching staff. Burrow’s late-career explosion at LSU points to the latter. Most successful pro passers start early in their college careers and graduate seamlessly to the NFL. Burrow took a different path but his production and assumed draft capital outweigh the concerns.

Antonio Gibson was a JUCO transfer to Memphis and didn’t have a definite role until his second and final year in college. He only caught six passes in 2018, but he exploded in 2019, averaging 19.3 yards per reception on 38 catches. Not to be outdone by his receiving chops, Gibson’s rushing efficiency was otherworldly as well. According to the Data Analysis Tool, his 11.2 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) yards per carry are the second-most for a running back prospect in the database.

Gibson’s path to fantasy success isn’t clear, but we know he’s going to be efficient in every facet of the game he’s used in. His success will come down to how creative the team that drafts him is. A smart NFL team will feature him as a position-less weapon and let fantasy sites worry about what position he plays. Everything he’s done indicates that, whatever position he plays, his ceiling is sky-high. The only problem now is getting him to one of the league’s few intelligent teams.