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The first three to four weeks are always the toughest to play in the DraftKings Milly Maker, but nothing was tougher than playing the first three to four weeks in 2020. Without any preseason or live practices, there were few indicators of individual player value. With 2021 actually having preseason and live camps, the public will get to view some of these situations to make more accurate decisions for Week 1. However, nothing is guaranteed. 

Building a base through stacking is the recommended method to go about constructing a lineup, especially early in the season. Each winning team for the first six weeks of 2020 had a dual stack; the first four stacked two wide receivers. This partially had to do with great offenses going against terrible defenses, but these first six weeks shouldn’t be ignored. The Milly Maker saw 50-percent of its first six winners in 2019 finish with dual stacks.

Like with Julio Jones, the only “logical” debate against Emmanuel Sanders is age. Sanders totaled a 2.23 (No. 15 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Route Run clip last season, one of the most predictive stats for fantasy football purposes. He’s not washed. He now joins the Bills, who targeted receivers at a league-leading 74.9-percent clip. For context, the offense targeted backs at the fourth-lowest rate and TEs at the third-lowest.

A bet on Sterling Shepard this season is a bet on a jump in play from Daniel Jones. The Giants offense has 134 (No. 15) vacated targets, or 26.8-percent. With the arrival of alpha receiver Kenny Golladay, the hope is the newly-signed receiver raises the lid of the offense. With Golden Tate gone, Shephard should play more in the slot.

Justin Jefferson’s shoulder injury is not a concern for dynasty leaguers. Vigorously debating Michael Thomas’ dynasty value.

Why Saquon Barkley will be a cheat code RB this year. Marquise Brown’s hamstring injury is foreboding.

Aaron Rodgers is gone after this season. The parallels between the Packers and the Michael Jordan Netflix documentary are obvious and referenced by involved parties. Allow your Salary Cap-tain to navigate you through the waves of contract and salary cap complexities. The first notable detail about Aaron Rodgers’ new contract is the 2023 void year. The next detail to note is Rodgers’ 2022 cap hit. Where is Rodgers going to play in 2022? How does the Rodgers saga affect Adams? Where do Cobb and the rookie WR fit in the 2021 plans?

Kyle Pitts will earn opportunity with his skills and Atlanta’s situation, because his draft capital won’t factor in to give him TE1 opportunity. Late-round picks, like Brevin Jordan, could outperform their draft capital based on situation. Draft capital won’t impact them negatively. However, rookie TEs in general hardly make redraft or Best Ball impacts in their rookie seasons. Don’t bother studying 2021 rookie TEs outside of Pitts for redraft and Best Ball formats.

Early round picks see more usage and production for rookie RBs and QBs, with a decline for mid and late round picks. There is a similar pattern for WRs, but with a lesser usage and production decline in later rounds. Trey Sermon will have a greater decline from Najee Harris than Dyami Brown from Kadarius Toney. For TEs, draft capital does not matter, it is rare that multiple rookie TEs will even break a top-15 TE mark.

You want Weighted Opportunities. You want target after target funneled to your running back. Last year David Johnson had 160.4 (No. 26 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities. If any of the three Texans running backs take opportunities away, it will be those of the low weighted opportunities. If they use him the same way they used him in Weeks 15-17, we may see an efficiency explosion.

High-scoring offenses typically house the running backs we desire most in fantasy, especially in the first two rounds. However, there are outliers such as David Montgomery, James Robinson, and Antonio Gibson. But are they really outliers? 30-percent of the running backs inside the top 15 were on bottom-10 offenses. Seems it might be better to be on a bad offense and be a focal point, than be in a mediocre offense and be a secondary or tertiary piece. 

Myles Gaskin flashed his PPR ability in Week 1 and beyond with 16.4 (No. 10 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game through 10 games. Although he struggled with efficiency, evidenced by his 5.3 (No. 20) Yards Per Touch and +0.9 (No. 38) Production Premium, he lacks much competition in the Miami backfield outside of Salvon Ahmed. Fantasy managers going with a zero-RB type build should target him at his ADP.

In eight games in 2020, Antonio Brown ranked inside the top-24 at wide receiver with a 14.6 (No. 23) Fantasy Points Per Game average. Will Tom Brady continue to pass a ton heading into his 22nd season? Sure, and the Underdog ADP of 79.9 makes Brown the 33rd WR off the board. If the passing opportunities remain high, he can exceed his ADP and provide WR2 type numbers more often than not.

Carson Wentz’ injury provides the perfect excuse for the Colts to toss the 2021 season, maintain the roster, and look forward to 2022. Jacob Eason is projected to begin the season as the starting quarterback, and Wentz’ chance of having an efficient 2021 plummets. Even when he returns, there’s a strong chance his foot injury affects his footwork and mechanics. This is a serious problem when banking on a strong bounceback to his once-MVP form. This season is lost for Colts, and fantasy expectations should be throttled across the board.

T.Y. Hilton’s ADP will freefall due to his age, but he still offers a decent fantasy floor. He can be a “safe” late teens pick in Best Ball. For redraft leagues, his lack of upside makes him a soft Flex option. The chance of a Michael Pittman breakout puts his workload at risk, and poor offensive efficiency lowers his touchdown upside. Hilton should be valued as a fringe WR6 with many reasons to see a decline. Don’t bet on a full on breakout for Pittman this year, but expect him to eat into Hilton’s workload.

How much will Jacob Eason bring down Colts receiver values? No first team reps for Trey Lance???

Lamar Jackson has had COVID twice. J.K. Dobbins capitalizing on Gus Edwards missed practice time?

Adam Gase was a poor head coach. He has a proven record of misusing and suppressing fantasy football production for running backs and wide receivers. His shortcomings further express themselves behind the scenes with poor player management. The “Gase Effect” certainly matters when considering actual NFL outcomes. However, there is no reason to believe a player can break out solely because Gase is no longer their coach.

The New York Jets have been historically bad for decades. Adam Gase was unfortunate enough to enter the fray at organizational rock bottom. Gase entered the Big Apple at the tail end of the Mike Maccagnan era. Maccagnan proved to be an all-time dud at general manager, resulting in college level rosters for Gase in 2019 and 2020. The Jets allowed their bust GM to run the entire 2019 offseason before firing him and bringing in Joe Douglas. Gase was left to carry the bag for a roster devoid of talent.