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There are quite a few forces pushing quarterbacks towards their lower-variance profiles. Primarily, quarterbacks have an incredibly stable workload from week-to-week. They’re almost never game-scripted out the way RBs can be in losing situations, or WRs can in difficult CB matchups. Instead, much of quarterback variance stems from touchdowns and rushing yardage, which are both more impactful than passing yards.

If I’m in the final few rounds of a best ball draft looking at wide receivers with projections of six-to-eight points per game over the course of the season, I’m taking speed guys on high-volume aerial attacks who just need the right cornerback matchup to get one deep lineup-making touchdown. High-variance players hit their ceiling once or twice a season. And playing a below average player for the chance at upside is almost never the correct move in traditional formats.

Antonio Gibson had a 60.0-percent (No. 6 among qualified running backs) Light Front Carry Rate and no other major back to challenge him for carries. There’s a reason he has gained traction in RB rankings in the fantasy community. Gibson averaged 5.5 Light Front Yards Per Carry with 17 carries inside the 10-yard line and a 4.7-percent (No. 23) Breakaway Run Rate. Efficient against a high rate of Light Fronts, expect him to continue seeing them for as long as he remains a receiving threat.

It’s no secret that J.K. Dobbins was one of the league’s most efficient backs in 2020. The Ravens offense seeing lots of Base Fronts helped; Dobbins didn’t see extra defenders in the box due to how they line up. His rookie status and not becoming a lead back until the second half of the season also helped him to see more of this “common” look against him. The Baltimore offense seeing a large rate of Base Fronts, plus Dobbins’ efficiency against them, bodes well for him in 2021.

Hands down, Zach Wilson has the most electric and dynamic list of Best Comparable Players at the quarterback position. He also has the widest range of outcomes in this rookie quarterback class. Ultimately, Wilson reaching his ceiling comes down to if his rushing ability translates to the NFL level. His ceiling is low-end QB1, and his floor is that the New York Jets’ triennial search for a franchise quarterback continues.

In 30 college games, Mac Jones finished with 42 rushing yards on 54 attempts, curbing his fantasy football upside. When compared to the only two first-round quarterbacks in his Best Comparable Players list, Jones isn’t close to their level on the ground. His ceiling is mid-QB2 in fantasy leagues, and his floor is he’s given a Chicago overcoat and sinks to the bottom of waiver wires in non-Superflex leagues.

There were only four players with more than Bryan Edwards’ 15 targets who bested his 2.43 Target Separation mark. His ability to create space led him to a 2.42 Fantasy Points Per Target average, only 0.03 points south of Tyreek Hill. With Derek Carr’s efficiency and Edwards’ playmaking, the duo can produce big numbers. Regardless of what happens in 2021, Edwards should be a hot name in the 2022 trade market.

Looking forward to 2022, the Browns can cut ties with Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry while saving $30-million. Although they can rework the contracts to make them more affordable, the Browns wouldn’t feel pressured if Donovan Peoples-Jones can step up in a big way. He did just that in 2020. Expect Peoples-Jones to have a couple more big performances in 2021. And while everyone is currently looking at the rookies, make a play for DPJ before he blows up.

Looking back to 2020, both running back and wide receiver proved to return subpar value in the deep rounds. Running backs drafted after the 12th round finished as an RB1 only 4.95-percent of the time. Wide receivers drafted in the same range were only a WR1 3.39-percent of the time. The fall off is drastic compared to quarterback (17.09-percent) and tight end (12.66-percent). This suggests that QB and TE are actually deep and that WR/RB are the shallow positions in drafts.

On Underdog Fantasy, there are about 15 tight ends currently being drafted in the top 12 rounds. It is reasonable to expect about half of them to bust in 2021. A conservative projection would suggest that there are at least five available after Round 12 that can score at least 100 points. With the overall poor quality of the tight end position, it is reasonable to push off chasing TE depth until the later rounds in Best Ball.

Jared Goff has too few mouths to feed. Why stacking is crucial in all formats.

Better QB pick: Jalen Hurts or Aaron Rodgers? Zack Moss is far better than Devin Singletary.

Is D.J. Moore quarterback proof? D’Andre Swift will be used everywhere in Year 2.

Scooping Trey Lance in single quarterback leagues. If Ja’Marr Chase went to Boston College, he would not have been a top-10 pick.

Six wide receivers were taken in the first seven picks of Round 2, with Zach Wilson being taken at the 2.03 to break that run up. I don’t love reaching on Wilson here because he is currently parked at No. 25 overall in our rookie rankings. However, I love Jaylen Waddle at the 2.01 and Terrace Marshall at the 2.05. These two receivers are jumping into roles with high target potential in 2021.

There were seven running backs that were taken off the board in Round 5, including Chris Evans, Kylin Hill, and Khalil Herbert. I love all three, and think they can see playing time in 2021. My favorite pick of the last round has to be Ihmir Smith-Marsette. The Vikings do not have a clear WR3 and I predict that ISM will see lots of targets as long as defenses are focused on Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Tevin Coleman (Underdog ADP: 176.7) is being drafted of Ty Johnson (ADP: 213.2) in best ball. Coleman, who averaged 1.9 yards per carry last year, is being billed as a possible ‘starter,’ but has almost zero chance to emerge as a league-winner at this stage of his career. If you draft under the assumption of a winning lineup, how will Coleman’s eight-point ‘usable week’ help your team? Take a flier on the higher-ceiling Johnson instead.

You are in Round 10 of your best ball draft and see Joe Burrow available well past ADP, so you snatch him despite having no Bengals players. Burrow has a top five season, helping vault you to the Best Ball Mania II final. However, if Burrow performs well, your score increases, but so do all the other entries rostering Burrow that week. The odds he hits his ceiling in a given week without a top performance from at least one of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, or Tyler Boyd are low.

The Vikings start the season on the road in what should be high-scoring affairs against the Bengals and Cardinals. Then they’re home for the Seahawks, whose defense that gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the road last season. Kirk Cousins can easily be a top five QB after three weeks, and you can really ride with him through the team’s Week 7 bye. Minnesota plays Detroit and Carolina before the bye, and Dallas directly after, but you’ll want to move him after that.

The 49ers open up the season on the road against the Lions and Eagles, before returning home to host the Packers and Seahawks. Detroit gave up the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs last season, the Seahawks gave up the sixth-most (fourth-most on the road), and the Eagles defense is stronger up front than they are in the secondary. With an incredible trio of skill players in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and their stable of dynamic running backs, the blueprint is there for Jimmy Garoppolo to put up big numbers over the first four weeks.