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While I’m high on Ryan Tannehill, Kyler Murray’s upside shouldn’t go overlooked in this potential shootout. Murray’s 67-percent Red Zone Completion Percentage and 24.4 Fantasy Points Per Game are good for third-best among qualified quarterbacks. The Titans low-key allowed the second-most touchdown passes (only the Lions allowed more) to opposing quarterbacks last season (36).  

The Falcons and Eagles allowed the most and ninth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season. Devonta Smith’s 34.6-percent Target Share at Alabama last year gives us a clear run-back option on the Eagles side of the ball. The Matt Ryan/Calvin Ridley/Kyle Pitts/Devonta Smith stack is very intriguing.

Let’s say you want to target the Steelers-Bills game. By stacking this game, you’re betting on it to be the highest scoring contest on the slate. With many strong plays to complete your stack, you want to target players who correlate with the game’s ceiling outcome. You’re banking on a octane performance from the Steelers to keep the Bills passing to Stefon Diggs. Your best bet for this is with Chase Claypool.

It’s possible we get an under-rostered Austin Ekeler if he is declared healthy by game-time after missing practice with a hamstring injury. On the other side, On the other side, Curtis Samuel has landed on IR after aggravating his groin, narrowing the target tree in Washington. Any combination of skinny stacks between Ekeler (if healthy), Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Logan Thomas will be a fixture in my tournament core this weekend.

While some (including this particular writer) have never sworn by Sony Michel, one simply can’t ignore the former Patriot’s efficiency last year. He ranked No. 1 among qualified running backs in Yards Per Touch (6.5) and No. 2 in True YPC (5.2); impressive, considering the team faced an average of 7.3 (No. 6) Defenders In Box. In New England, Michel was one of too many cooks in the kitchen; in Los Angeles, however, he forms a nice duo with Henderson on what should be a high-octane offense.

There’s drama in the Bayou, and Michael Thomas is at the forefront. The star wideout’s decision to opt for ankle surgery in June didn’t sit well with the Saints and Coach Sean Payton. Thomas was paced on the PUP list, and won’t be eligible to return until after Week 6; at which point Marquez Callaway may have a firm grip on the No. 1 chair.

If you’ve drafted a rookie QB, he’s either starting already or will be very soon. If you’ve got Justin Fields or Trey Lance, be sure you’ve grabbed a low-priced starter with a good early schedule to get you through the first few weeks. Guys like Teddy Bridgewater in Denver or even Sam Darnold in Carolina have easy enough opening schedules to get you through the first few weeks. Then expect your rookie QB to pay off soon, and for most of the season.

When other teams drafting before them (that also needed line help) reached on skill position players, it gifted the Lions with opportunity to select OT Penei Sewell at pick No. 7 overall, adding him to a line that is now top-half in the NFL. Yes, the Lions hired a caveman head coach in Dan Campbell. But they’ve embraced the rebuild. Their time will come. It might be early to move, but be prepared to pounce.

The majority of teams either miscalculated the value of the top players or held onto money for too long.  I was foolish to sit and watch Dadoggin1 snatch up Ezekiel Elliott for 72.9-percent of the projected RB1 value. Learn from my mistake by recognizing and attacking value when it presents itself. Studs and Studs is the best strategy to win in this environment. Yes, Studs and Studs. It is conceivable to build an entire starting roster with two RB1s, three WR1s, the TE1 and a WR1 in the flex. Scary.

A flexible, water-like strategy is the best way to handle auction drafts. Do not try to force a preconceived plan into the draft, but instead, understand the value as it presents itself and adapt to new information. If the room is afraid to spend money, then build a team of superstars. If premium players are flying off the board at astronomical prices, then let the high-upside WR2 and RB2 fall into your lap. Be water, my friend.

Why Chase Claypool is the WR to target in Pittsburgh. Watch Teddy Bridgewater outscore Ben Roethlisberger this season.

Derrick Henry and Patrick Mahomes are going too early in drafts. Targeting Antonio Brown over Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this year.

The Panthers boast D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall at WR. Moore and Anderson finished top 30 among qualified wide receivers in Fantasy Points Per Game last season and possess Speed and Burst Scores in the 75th-percentile or higher. Marshall has an alpha build and will face the Jets’ third corner. All in all, the Panthers receivers are set to feast in Week 1, and they may even be able to help Sam Darnold to fantasy relevance as well.

The Los Angeles Rams boast a top-tier defense headed by Aaron Donald. The Bears, meanwhile, are still (as of this writing) rolling out Andy Dalton week 1 behind a shaky offensive line that lost rookie tackle Teven Jenkins. While David Montgomery surged at the back half of last season, he won’t be set up for success with Dalton and an iffy o-line against Donald and company.

Mike Davis is clearly the RB1 in Atlanta, but Wayne Gallman should be treated as a high end handcuff with upside. Gallman flashed last season in New York, then signed into a crowded situation in San Francisco. When he was cut, he landed in an ideal spot. Is Davis really that much better than Gallman? I am not sure. If Davis goes down, Gallman would step into a high volume role with receiving work as well.

When Washington cut Peyton Barber, Jaret Paterson’s role was solidified. He is a deep league bench spot type player with upside. The UDFA put up gaudy numbers at Buffalo and now is the No. 3 RB to Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. At 5-6 inches tall, Patterson is one of the shorter RBs in the NFL, but he showed rushing and receiving ability in the preseason. Ron Rivera compared him to Darren Sproles, and the Washington media has compared his abilities to Maurice Jones-Drew.

Welcome to my series on tournament daily fantasy sports for PlayerProfiler. The Pareto Principals will embark on an overview of each slate with an eye towards theoretical, structural analysis. I will apply that to an intriguing lineup concept to employ in DFS tournaments that week; with an emphasis on limited entry, small to medium field contests.

My ‘Pareto-inspired’ play-style works best in environments which reward a big-hit, small-miss mentality, that prioritizes macro-level process over micro-level selections. If that’s not you, I think this column will still be a useful read in terms of helping grow your mindset for DFS, fantasy football, and probability-based thinking in general. If that is you, then I encourage you to play along with me this season.

In a study by J.J. Zachariason, 54 running backs were drafted between Rounds 7 and 15 behind a top-12 running back from 2011-2017. Of those, 32 offered three or fewer top-24 finishes. This means a majority of the time you select a handcuff, you will have three or less useable weeks. That also includes games in which they score a random touchdown, or take over after a mid game injury when you would have left them on the bench.

Taking Alexander Mattison on a team with Ezekiel Elliott allows you the chance to stack hoards of receivers and an elite tight end, with the possibility of starting both Mattison and Elliott should Dalvin Cook get injured. That’s a team others cannot replicate or compete with. Drafting a handcuff to your own running back takes the possibility to benefit from chaos off the table. You can derive only benefit at your own expense.