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Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs will certainly get his fair share, but Emmanuel Sanders behind him is in line to eat on this generally pass-heavy Bills team. Sanders had 6 (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) Deep Targets and 335 (No. 8) Air Yards entering Week 4. Josh Allen likes to air it out, so expect Sanders to see plenty of run in what should be another high scoring affair Sunday night.

Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron only have a combined 19 targets out of Big Ben’s 170 pass attempts through four weeks. The Broncos, outside of five receptions to Mark Andrews last week, have not allowed more than three receptions to a tight end group so far this season. Freiermuth will have a hard time breaking out in Week 5 facing a good secondary with a small Target Share.

Kyler Murray took the Arizona Cardinals on the road and stomped Sean McVay’s previously-unbeaten Los Angeles Rams, leaving Arizona as the NFC’s only remaining undefeated team and +55 in Points Scored differential. Heading into Week 4, his 29.7 Fantasy Points per Game, 83.0-percent True Completion Percentage, 73.3-percent Deep Ball Completion Percentage and Rushing TDs were all ranked No. 1 at the quarterback position.

Starting 2020 with lackluster performances against two of the NFL’s top defenses, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had been all but written off at age 22. In 2021 Weeks 3 and 4 though, Edwards has now put up back-to-back 100-yard rushing games. Although KC’s goal line carries have been going to Darrel Williams, Edwards-Helaire has been efficient when given the opportunity, ranking top 12 in both Evaded Tackles and Juke Rate.

The Infirmary is loaded up heading into week 4 and there are some big time names currently tending to their individual ailments. Running backs are beat to hell everywhere, a QB visiting the “Big Apple” will have no one to throw to and the Gronk-a-Saurus will miss a return to his old stomping grounds. Football cares not for an individual’s star power or grand narratives made for television; no, football is cold and heartless. It’s not all bad, though. The Infirmary explains why.

With oft-relied on veteran James White out for the season, the opportunity here lies with J.J. Taylor. While his workout metrics won’t wow you, he did have an 11.15 (78th-percentile among qualified running backs) Agility Score. In addition, his Target Share in college was a stout 11.9-percent, which ranked in the 85th-percentile. The Patriots have been careful to hang on to Taylor; perhaps they’ve been prepared for just such a circumstance. 

A bet on volume is a shaky bet. But Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ran a route on 82-percent of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks last week. Now, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are out. After the Jets this week, the second-year WR has the Jaguars on tap. That Jaguars defense rank third-to-last in Pass DVOA. I’d flex Westbrook-Ikhine in both contests. Brown and Jones are no bets to make it back for Week 5. Let’s stash the Titans’ No. 1 WR for the foreseeable future before the price goes up.

Kadarius Toney totaled season highs last week with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton leaving the game early. The rookie WR totaled a 67.7-percent Snap Share, leading to 29 routes run. Toney earned three targets, more than in his first two games combined, and parlayed the opportunity into a 2-16 receiving line. While that’s nothing that’ll get the group chat talking, he has a first-round pedigree. This week, he’ll audition himself for a bigger role. And if he sticks, he has a juicy matchup against the Cowboys next week.

Jaylen Waddle is primed to deliver free money for those willing to take the Over 49.5 receiving yards line on Underdog Fantasy. Waddle’s Target Share has risen dramatically since Jacoby Brissett became the starting QB in Week 3.

Noah Fant will bounce back when he matches up against a Baltimore team that has allowed the most receiving yards to TE’s through Week 3. Targets will funnel to Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton because the Broncos are without another WR, after K.J. Hamler tore his ACL last week against the Jets.

As we close in on the first quarter of the NFL season, we’ll break down the high and low-efficiency outliers at wide receiver. Most of these receivers end up in starting lineups more often than not, while a couple may fit more in deeper leagues with multiple flex spots. It’s a fun and eye-opening exercise to use the Data Analysis Tool to sort through the efficiency outliers at different positions.

Darnell Mooney is inside the top-30 among qualified wide receivers in both Air Yards Share (33.5-percent) and Target Share (22.9-percent) for the Bears. Remember last week when Marquise Brown dropped two touchdowns against the Detroit Lions? Mooney is an equally as fast WR (4.38 40-Yard Dash, 95th-percentile) with better hands (two career drops on 117 targets).

Nelson Agholor has an 84.8-percent (No. 24) Snap Share, 114 (No. 7) Routes Run, and a 95.0-percent (No. 18) Route Participation. Fantasy football is about opportunity and being involved on offense is the first step to productivity. With 6 (No. 5) Deep Targets and a 14.0 (No. 21) Average Target Distance, he has a defined role on offense too.

Najee Harris is the new Saquon Barkley. Stash Marlon Mack and JJ Taylor now

What happened to Myles Gaskin? Why no one will take Josh Jacobs in a dynasty trade.

The words “reliable weekly fantasy starter” have not often been associated with Mike Williams. Thus far, the 2021 weekly fantasy point totals for the fifth year wideout read: 22.2 (WR14), 22.1 (WR10), and 33.2 (WR1). His 31 (No. 6) targets have him second on the team, just two behind perennial target hog Keenan Allen. No longer just a deep threat, Williams gains 12.57 Lifetime Value points to move up six spots to WR26.

Allen Robinson is off to a disappointing start to the 2021 season. Regardless of matchups, his quarterbacks have delivered a 4.64 (No. 71) Target Quality Rating and a 76.2-percent (No. 50) Catchable Target Rate. The Bears’ offensive game plan has produced a league-worst 4.8 Yards Per Attempt. It may be time to worry if Robinson can’t get on track when the Lions visit Soldier Field in Week 4.

For GPP tournaments with heavily weighted payout structures, it’s not enough to find high scoring players. You need to find points where others aren’t getting them. Where some fantasy gamers have moved off pre-season favorites who have underwhelmed, we see an opportunity for contrarian upside. We stack lowly rostered teams because that gives us the chance to find leverage and score where others aren’t.

In a week where it’s tempting to extrapolate the first few games of the season, it’s important to cut through the noise when building your daily fantasy football lineups. We expect a pass heavy game plan for the Cowboys this week which means a Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper stack are in play. We also look at why the advanced stats say to stick with Stefon Diggs even as his price holds steady.