Results for: "rookie RB efficiency"

Clyde Edwards-Helaire won the lottery. His skillset already made him the perfect weapon for any offense. Not only was Edwards-Helaire a target magnet with a 10.2-percent (76th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share, but he had suction cups for hands, catching 55 of his 58 looks. He’s also incredibly elusive with the ball in his hands, wiggling past defenders with his 128.7 (89th-percentile) Burst Score. With his 32.4 (89th-percentile) Body Mass Index, he’ll double as a stout workhorse on the ground.

One quiet riser in the rookie ranks was Anthony McFarland. The Pittsburgh Steelers grabbed the speedster out of Maryland as a nice insurance policy for James Conner. Given Conner’s lengthy Medical History Report, McFarland may pay off for them as soon as 2020. His touches will be limited as a rookie, but he has the skills to deliver splash plays and should earn more work. Despite seeing the third-highest jump in Lifetime Value among rookie running backs, he’s still a project in dynasty leagues.

Dynamism is a trait that we at PlayerProfiler and Breakout Finder place a heavy premium on when evaluating college prospects. No one in the 2020 NFL Draft embodies this trait more than Lynn Bowden. His Best Comparable Player being Deebo Samuel makes sense on many levels. Both can be used in a variety of ways and, given the way the league is trending, fit the prototype of the modern-day alpha receiver.

If there’s ever a year where we shouldn’t be surprised to see a player like Bowden sneak into the back half of Day 2, it’s a year where the wide receiver class is this deep and the draft itself projects to be the most unpredictable of all time. He’s the perfect upside flyer in the third round of rookie drafts and the No. 12 receiver in our rookie rankings. Though his upside is high enough that it’s hard to find fault with taking him in the second.

Collin Johnson took three years to break out at Texas, recording a 21.0 (45th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age. He didn’t command a particularly heavy market share until his junior season and had a pedestrian 14.6 (48th-percentile) College YPR. Without athletic testing at the Combine or a pro day to provide his full athletic profile, the positives surrounding him are limited.

From a stylistic perspective, Johnson doesn’t necessarily offer everything one would expect from a receiver of his size. He’s strong at the catch point, but not great beating press. He takes long strides, but doesn’t have the acceleration or deep speed to threaten cornerbacks. Johnson’s elite-level contested catch ability is bookended by his inability to create consistent separation. Major concerns exist for a prospect that profiles as an X receiver at the NFL level but will likely never be given the opportunity to be one.

It’s hard to overstate what Cam Akers was able to accomplish behind one of the nation’s worst offensive lines. His 0.57 yards blocked per attempt is the worst in the five-year history of Graham Barfield’s Yards Created metric. Despite not being a special teamer at the college level, being a dual-threat quarterback in high school shows that he has the type of on-field dynamism that can’t be taught.

Players like Gabriel Davis who declare early after improving each year in college are players I like to bet on. His Catch Rate may have dropped in his final year at UCF, but he nearly doubled his career totals in receptions, yards and touchdowns. His 115 Big Board Index ranking suggests he’s a fourth-round pick, but he made some appearances in Rounds 2 and 3 of some of our source mocks. Davis sneaking into Day 2 would force us to reshape the middle tiers of our wide receiver rankings. 

Darnell Mooney’s college production earned him a trip to the NFL Scouting Combine, where he impressed. He checked in at just 5-10, 176-pounds, but he ran a 4.38 (96th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard dash. While the slight frame only gives him a 91.7 (42nd-percentile) Speed Score, the raw speed itself remains a coveted asset in the NFL. More importantly, this athleticism matched up with Mooney’s production profile.

In sum, Mooney looks like an undersized, deep threat at the NFL level. While his profile leads to a few intriguing player comparisons, draft capital remains his largest obstacle. Most peg him as a Day 3 pick. However, NFL teams chase speed and covet vertical elements in their offense. Even with an early Day 3 investment from a team, he would become a major sleeper in fantasy football.

While Marquez Callaway doesn’t have the gaudy counting stats of Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb, he does have impressive market share numbers. He posted a 33.1-percent (61st-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating at Tennessee with a 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. In his career, he totaled 629 punt return yards with three touchdowns. While it doesn’t show up in most boxscores, this skill should be recognized.

Despite plenty of positives on his resume, Callaway still looks like a late-round option for many NFL teams. He’s not entirely polished and doesn’t have that freak-level athleticism. That will cause most teams to view him as a developmental pick instead of an instant contributor. If he catches fire as a returner, he’ll command more opportunities on offense. That will be his key to being a fantasy asset sooner rather than later.

Zack Moss entered the predraft the process as the tape grinder’s darling. He broke out at age 19.7 when he amassed over 1,400 yards from scrimmage. Moss has the sixth-highest College Dominator Rating in the 2020 rookie running back class at 35.7-percent, 82nd-percentile among qualified running backs. He also is more than adequate in the passing game with a 9.0-percent (68th-percentile) College Target Share.

Unfortunately, excitement around Moss dissipated after an atrocious Combine performance. He posted a sluggish 4.65 (31st-percentile) 40-Yard Dash. Further, his lateral agility and explosiveness are legitimate questions after failing to perform the drills required to register a Burst Score, and Agility Score. Tape grinders may pound the table to draft him in the latter half of the first round. However, he looks eerily similar to Montee Ball, a player that lasted only two years in the NFL.

Kalija Lipscomb is regarded as a refined route runner by scouts, who view him negatively for his lack of size, failure to win contested catches and running at a one-dimensional speed. His lack of a second gear caps his ability to gain yards after the catch and burn DBs on deep balls. However, he has the potential to carve out a niche as a possession receiver who thrives on short yardage. That his Best Comparable Player, Jermaine Kearse, averaged 12.9 YPR for his pro career makes perfect sense.

Lipscomb projects to be a Day 3 wide receiver at best and he may slip into undrafted territory. Given his size, college YPR and lack of athleticism, he profiles as a WR3 or reserve role-player. His SEC pedigree, 92nd-percentile Breakout Age and demonstrated versatility give him a shot to become an outlier and ascend to elite status, but a niche role appears much more probable.

Chase Claypool emerged from the 2020 NFL Combine a surprise performer. At 6-4 and weighing 238-pounds, he ran an impressive 4.42 (89th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-Yard dash, good for an otherworldly 129.8 (99th-percentile) Speed Score. He also impressed in the Broad Jump and Vertical Jump, resulting in a 131.9 (92nd-percentile) Burst Score. Simply put, he is a size-speed freak athlete.

The advanced metrics and data clearly indicate that Claypool’s NFL success is contingent on transferring to the tight end position. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem interested in making the change. For this reason, he is a fade in upcoming dynasty rookie drafts unless a team decides to transfer him over the tight end position. If a team does select him as a tight end, he becomes the TE1 of the 2020 rookie class and should be drafted accordingly.

While Rico Dowdle’s 23.1-percent (45th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating and 5.2 (38th-percentile) College YPC leave room for improvement, injury and poor offensive line play surely influenced these numbers. South Carolina’s offense as a whole ranked No. 114 in rushing yards per game (118.5), with a 5.23-percent (No. 41) sack rate. Positively, he managed 22 receptions as a senior, showing the ability to play on third down.

Like most Day 3 running backs, Dowdle’s fantasy viability comes down to draft capital and landing spot. Plenty of Day 3 success stories exist, but most prospects of this caliber fail to make an impact at the next level. Unlike most late-round prospects, Dowdle possesses size, athleticism, and pass catching ability. At the moment, he warrants a late-round flier in dynasty unless a team shows significant interest come draft day.