This is Week 7 WR-CB Matchups! Each passing week of the NFL season means that we have more information about teams, players, and strengths and weaknesses of defenses. Because of this, we were able to correctly identify Drake London and Tyler Lockett as fades in Week 6. Lockett finished with a season-low 3.7 (No. 65) fantasy points, while London finished with his second-worst performance of the season with 7.0 (No. 49) fantasy points. Let’s carry the momentum into Week 7 as we identify wide receivers to FADE or PLAY this week.
Let’s recap what I’m looking to accomplish in this series:
- Firstly, I’m targeting players who are STARTING in over 50-percent of Sleeper Leagues to FADE. I believe that these WRs will finish outside the top-30 wide receivers for the week.
- Secondly, I’m targeting players ROSTERED in less than 50-percent of Sleeper Leagues to PLAY. These are your desperate WR2 and/or FLEX plays. I believe these wide receivers will finish inside the top-30 WRs for the week.
- Finally, the players I recommend playing I would play OVER players I recommend fading.
FADE – Terry McLaurin (CB Matchup: Jaire Alexander – No. 11)
Terry McLaurin Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Terry McLaurin has been predictable the past three weeks. He struggled against a top corner in Week 4 when he faced Trevon Diggs, put up top-30 numbers against a porous Titans secondary in Week 5, and finished with another bad performance against Jaylon Johnson and the strong Bears pass defense in Week 6.
This week McLaurin gets Jaire Alexander and the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have allowed the fewest targets to wide receivers this season and have allowed the No. 7 fewest fantasy points to the position according to Pro Football Reference.
Alexander is top-15 in Targets Allowed, Receptions Allowed, and Target Depth. He hasn’t allowed a touchdown this season and has allowed fewer than 45 receiving yards in each game this year. McLaurin is No. 77 in Fantasy Points Per Target Vs. Man Coverage and No. 59 in Yards Per Route Run. Not to mention, Taylor Heinicke will start at QB this week.
FADE – Drake London (CB Matchup: Chidobe Awuzie – No. 18)
Drake London Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Double-dipping with fading Drake London in back-to-back weeks feels like cheating, but he’s still starting in 62-percent of Sleeper leagues. The Falcons aren’t airing it out as they’ve opted to run 33.5 (No. 2) Team Run Plays Per Game. When your team runs the ball that much, a 33.1-percent (No. 2) Target Share means little.
London’s air yards have plummeted in recent weeks. He’s failed to surpass 60 Air Yards in each of his last three games. His Target Depth and Deep Targets are outside the top 60. Chidobe Awuzie is susceptible to allowing big plays to speed threats such as Jaylen Waddle, but London doesn’t profile as a receiver that can capitalize on this weakness.
Despite Awuzie’s 13.4 (No. 61) Yards Per Reception Allowed, he’s top-5 in numerous efficiency metrics such as Coverage Rating (+35.5), Catch Rate Allowed (37.8-percent), and Fantasy Points Per Target (0.89). London has not been a good contested catch receiver in the NFL, and Awuzie is No. 19 in Target Separation and No. 5 in Pass Break-Ups.
PLAY – Donovan Peoples-Jones (CB Matchup: Marcus Peters – No. 73)
Donovan Peoples-Jones Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
In his last three games, Donovan Peoples-Jones has 30+ Routes Run, 5+ targets, and 85+ Air Yards in each game. He’s played against two teams that are in the top 12 in Air Yards allowed to opposing offenses and finished as WR29 and WR33 in those games. According to Pro Football Reference, the Baltimore Ravens’ defense is No. 6 in Air Yards allowed to opponents.
Marcus Peters is outside the top 75 cornerbacks in Yards Allowed and Yards Per Reception Allowed. He’s allowed four or more receptions AND 50+ receiving yards in three of his five games this season and has a 17.8-percent Target Rate (No. 55). Meanwhile on offense, Peoples-Jones’ Target Rate is 22.1-percent (No. 44) and an 86.0-percent (No. 25) Snap Share this season.
