The LA Chargers are home favorites hosting the Denver Broncos for Monday Night’s game. The Chargers are expecting Keenan Allen to remain sidelined with a hamstring. Justin Herbert has toughed out a rib injury while leading the team to back-to-back road wins. The visiting Broncos have looked out of sync on offense but have the pieces necessary to create points. As 4.5 road dogs, however, the Broncos have their work cut out for them. Let’s take a closer look at the Week 6 MNF Showdown!
Broncos vs Chargers Odds:
Chargers -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Moneyline Chargers -230/Broncos +190
The Broncos were certainly expecting a much different start to the season after mortgaging the team’s future to acquire Russell Wilson. The early lack of chemistry with his teammates or his nagging shoulder injury could be reasons for his slow start. Wilson has finished inside the top 12 at the position just once. He’s also turned in a trio of bottom-10 quarterback performances. I’m expecting an uptick in passes from Wilson after losing under-rated rusher Javonte Williams though. Wilson’s 314 Air Yards Per Game and six Deep Ball Attempts Per Game reveals the team’s intentions. Wilson is a high-end QB2 and an intriguing bet for over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. The Chargers have allowed the No. 3 most Touchdown Passes to opposing passers.
Rushing and Receiving
Melvin Gordon immediately filled the role designed for injured backfield-mate Williams. Gordon handled 57-percent of the teams rushing share in relief but was mostly ineffective (2.7 Yards Per Carry). The Chargers do allow a league-high 25.8 Fantasy Points (per game average) to opposing rushers, but the Game Script doesn’t favor a big rushing attack by the Broncos. Gordon’s workload and matchup helps his floor, but he’s not a lock by any means. Gordon should instead be considered an upside RB2. Mike Boone is a deep league PPR flex option as his third-down role will lock him in for a handful of catches especially if the Broncos are playing catch-up.
Courtland Sutton paces the team in Targets (46). It’s not a surprise either that his 28-percent Target Share and his 40-percent Air Yard Share are team highs as well. Sutton is a strong WR2 play and a lock for one-game DFS contests. Jerry Jeudy is the only other receiving option to consider here. However, his meager 5.8 Targets Per Game has yielded three games under eight fantasy points (PPR scoring). He’s a subtle fade, but he’s also worth a touchdown-hunting bet through your sportsbook. Eric Saubert is a desperation punt at tight end after seeing seven Week 5 Targets.
Dealing with a rib injury, Justin Herbert has still managed to parlay three top-10 QB finishes to start the season. Though the matchup is daunting, Herbert remains a fine QB1 in this spot. The Broncos’ defense ranks No. 3 in Fantasy Points Allowed (10.3 gm/avg), No. 5 in Sacks (17), and No. 2 in Passing Touchdowns Allowed (3). Although I’m tempering expectations for Herbert, I believe he passes for over 1.5 touchdowns as he has done so in each of the team’s last two meetings.
Austin Ekeler today:
2 TOT TD
He has 5 touchdowns in the last 2 games. pic.twitter.com/CoT3nUbok5
— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 9, 2022
The priority spend-up and Hogfather pal, Austin Ekeler, is a top-tier RB1. Among qualified running backs, Ekeler ranks No. 1 in Receptions (27), No. 3 in Targets (29), and No. 4 in Rushing Touchdowns (3). In a perceived tough passing matchup for the Chargers, Ekeler should be relied on to keep the offense chugging along. Ekeler has recorded a touchdown in each of the team’s last four meetings with the Broncos.
With Keenan Allen listed as doubtful, the expectation is again to rely on Mike Williams as the team’s top option at wideout. Williams’ early-season achievements include No. 13 in Targets Per Game (8.8 gm/avg) and No. 7 in Air Yards Share (41.4-percent). Since replacing Allen as the team’s top receiver in Week 2, Williams has gone over 10 Targets or 100 Receiving Yards in all but one contest. Lock him in as a trusted WR2.
Josh Palmer is the only other Chargers receiver worth noting here. Palmer is merely a blip on our radar while serving as the team’s No. 2 wideout though. Because of the scarcity of Targets, he’s relegated to a low-end flex option for one-game DFS contests. Palmer has recorded a fade-worthy 16 and 25 scoreless yards in his past meetings with the Broncos.