Week 16 NFL Best Bets | NFL Picks on BetOpenly

by Ahaan Rungta and TREVOR TIPTON · Betting & Props

This is Week 16 NFL Best Bets on BetOpenly! Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly—a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 15, our picks went 1-2. This week, we are back again with four best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.

As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. You now can also get better odds than at a traditional sports book which charges on average 10-percent juice. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.

If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season

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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads) but also to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail them with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.

Ahaan’s Week 16 Picks

Minnesota Vikings Spread +3 vs. Detroit Lions (-108)

Last year, these teams faced off once since the trade of tight end T.J. Hockenson. In that contest, the Vikings lost 34-23 on the road. This time, Minnesota has to deal with Nick Mullens at quarterback and just lost by a field goal to the beaten-up Cincinnati Bengals. Yet, they are only underdogs at home by about a field goal. That is because this is a bad draw for Detroit.

The Lions have been learning their deficiencies in bunches lately. Since coming off their bye in Week 10, the Lions rank No. 30 in dropback EPA per play allowed. This makes them one of the easier passing defenses Mullens will have to face. With all his weapons healthy and Minnesota picking up a run game behind the emergence of Ty Chandler, the Vikings offense should be more comfortable this Sunday despite the flaws of their quarterback.

Vikings Defense

Offensively, the Lions have usually taken care of business against weak opponents behind a flurry of huge plays and a sturdy offensive line. However, the Vikings defense has heated up. They are No. 3 in drop back EPA per play allowed since Week 10. They are the far superior defense in this matchup. Now at home, they should be able to exploit Jared Goff who has been notoriously worse outside of Detroit in his Lions career.

Finally, this game fits a trend with a large sample size. Since 1989, in the “late season” (Week 16 onward), underdogs of less than eight in games with Vegas totals in the 40s are 164-72-6 against the spread when facing a team that missed the playoffs in the previous season and have a better winning percentage in the current season. That is good for a 69.5-percent hit rate and a +31.86-percent ROI. Let’s back the trend here again in a bounce back spot for the Vikings at home while also snagging the key number of three. On most sportsbooks, the juice lies on the Vikings side of the spread hovering in the -115 to -120 range, but you can get this at a pick ‘em price on BetOpenly.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers total UNDER 47 (+100)

The Week 16 slate is complete on Monday night with a potential Super Bowl preview. We are hopping on an NFL system that has been a cash machine lately. Monday Night Football totals of at least 40 points are on a 28-4-1 “under” run when the spread is within 6.5 points as it is in this contest. It makes sense to back the defenses in this game.

The 49ers win on defense by stifling the run (No. 7 in run stop win rate) and pressuring the quarterback (No. 9 in pass rush win rate) while their weakness is in the secondary. This season, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has seen a massive dip in throwing metrics (e.g., accuracy rating and completion percentage) when under pressure and is missing Mark Andrews.

Ravens Secondary

On the other hand, the Ravens have one of the best secondaries in football. They rank No. 3 in PFF’s coverage grade this season and No. 13 in drop back EPA per play allowed since Week 10. Although the 49ers offense has been almost matchup-proof when healthy, they have also faced very few defenses of Baltimore’s caliber. The last time they did was against the Browns in Week 6 when San Francisco lost 19-17. It is time to fade both of these contenders’ offenses and trust their defensive stars in Week 16 to continue the Monday night under wagon.

Trevor’s Week 16 Picks

Bijan Robinson (ATL) OVER 2.5 receptions (-117)

Bijan Robinson received the Arthur Smith treatment last week and was not used. Surprise, we are going back to this well and taking advantage! I could just cut and paste this same article from last week. However, I will give more breakdown this week. The primary reason to back Robinson is that the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL against running backs this season.

Over the past three games Robinson had seen, prior to last week’s loss to the Panthers, three, three, and five receptions in subsequent games. The Falcons ran an abysmal 51 plays last week and only 20 of them were passing. He should have more opportunities with Taylor Heinicke this week throwing screens and checkdowns to him. In spite of Smith’s continued misuse of Robinson, he still is averaging 2.9 receptions a game on 4.6 targets this season. 

Colts Defense

The Colts have given up the No. 5 most receiving yards (583) to running backs this season while allowing the No. 4 worst yards per route (8.6). The Colts just allowed Jaylen Warren, Joe Mixon, and Tyjae Spears to all go over their reception props in the last three games they have played. There is a chance Smith might want to keep his job and should have Bijan seeing more targets this week against the Colts. Indianapolis is also giving up the No. 5 most yards per game receiving to running backs (41.6). Additionally, the Colts have given up the No. 3 most fantasy points to running backs (363.9). 

We saw Robinson’s numbers dip with Heinicke at QB previously this season. However, with Grover Stewart on the field the Colts have given up only 3.8 yards per carry. I expect to see Robinson used out of the backfield in the passing game this week as Arthur Smith maybe tries to save his job. This line is currently -135 to -140 at the major sports books. You can get this for -117 at BetOpenly.

Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 3.5 Receptions (+127) 

Prior to the James Cook breakout, the Buffalo Bills’ offensive strategy had shifted to include more plays designed to utilize Kincaid’s unique skill set. This increased focus on the young tight end is a clear sign that the coaching staff has recognized his potential and is ready to give him more opportunities to shine. After last week’s zero reception performance, this is a great buy low spot on the rookie against a Chargers team that can be exploited underneath. 

All games matter to the Bills right now as they are fighting to get into the playoffs. Kincaid has shown impressive growth and development. This was best illustrated with a notable performance against the Bengals where he emerged as a go-to playmaker for quarterback Josh Allen with 10 receptions. Kincaid has surpassed this line in his last eight out of ten games. During that time, he is averaging five receptions a game with a 17-percent target share for the Bills. The Bills have the best OL/DL matchup this week which should give Allen plenty of time to pick apart the Chargers. Kincaid is still the number two receiving option on this team, and we should see a bounce back this week. 

How Will the Chargers Respond?

The Chargers season finally has a bright spot this week. They no longer have to play under Brandon Staley. The coach was fired this week along with GM Tom Telesco. This might breathe some life into the Chargers after such an injury ridden and disappointing season. One of the reasons to like Kincaid this week is how Los Angeles uses their slot corners. They also should be bringing Derwin James down into the box more to try and stop James Cook. This should give Kincaid lots of opportunities underneath. 

The Chargers have allowed Mayer, Likely, Musgrave, Conklin to all beat their lines on receptions and allowed Kmet and Kelce to both have double digit reception games. This line is currently -108 at Caesar’s. +127 at BetOpenly is too much value to pass up on this week.