Week 15 NFL Best Bets | NFL Picks on BetOpenly

by Ahaan Rungta and TREVOR TIPTON · Betting & Props

This is Week 15 NFL Best Bets on BetOpenly! This is a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. This week, we are back again with three best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Tipton with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.

As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. You now can also get better odds than you can on a traditional sports book which charges on average 10% juice. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.

If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season

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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads). Gamers also have the ability to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail them with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.

Ahaan’s Week 15 Picks

Cleveland Browns to Win (-144)

Despite some season-ending injuries to the Browns’ roster, they still have an argument for the title of “best defense in the NFL.” On the season, they rank No. 1 in EPA per play allowed, No. 1 in run stop win rate, and No. 3 in pass rush win rate while also leading the league in man coverage rate. We will gladly fade Justin Fields on a two-game win streak after a spike performance against a regressing Lions defense. In that game Chicago had the advantage of coming off of a bye week.

Fields still ranks No. 21 in EPA per play overall, No. 24 in accuracy rating against man coverage, and No. 39 in catchable pass rate overall. His best receiver, D.J. Moore, is also questionable and did not practice on Wednesday. On the other side, the Browns offense may not be drawing many believers nowadays with Joe Flacco at quarterback. However, their most important weapons are still healthy. That should be enough against this Bears defense. On the season, Chicago ranks No. 27 in dropback EPA per play allowed while playing the No. 11-most zone coverage in the league.

Flacco is an experienced veteran who has consistently been far superior as a thrower against zone coverage. Additionally, he should be able to control this game at home. Instead of laying the points on the favorite against the spread to avoid juice, we will just ask the home team to do their job and win the game. Even though the books have this past -150, we can get the discount on BetOpenly. You can buy the superior team at just -144.

Trevor’s Week 15 Picks

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) OVER 13.5 yards longest rush (-127)

Despite being a rookie and misused at the start of the season, Gibbs has made waves in the NFL with his explosive running style and incredible speed. In the upcoming game between the Detroit Lions and the Denver Broncos, all eyes are on the Lions’ rookie running back, Jahmyr Gibbs. With his impressive performance this season, it’s no wonder why the sports books have set his line of longest rush or more than at 13.5 yards. But what makes him so special? Why is he poised to make such an impact against the Broncos? Let’s take a closer look at the factors that might contribute to this prediction.

First and foremost, it’s essential to understand the context of the game. The Lions have a strong offensive line. This offensive line is ranked in the top 10 in run blocking efficiency this season. This means that they are well-equipped to create opportunities for their running backs. Gibbs is no exception. With a solid foundation to work from, he has the potential to break off a long rush against the Broncos.

Remarkable Jahmyr Gibbs

Furthermore, Gibbs’ individual performance this season has been nothing short of remarkable. He currently leads the NFL with eight rushes of 20+ yards. This is the most by a Lion since Kevin Smith in 2008. Among all NFL running backs, he also ranks at the top of the NFL in yards per carry (5.41), 275 explosive yards, and a 8.6% explosive run rate. He’s also tied for No. 5 in yards per touch (5.7). These statistics paint a picture of a player who is not only fast but elusive and capable of breaking tackles. Gibbs has hit this line in seven straight games. This includes eight out of the last nine. 

The Denver Broncos’ defense has been improving. However, they are particularly susceptible to speedy running backs. With Gibbs’ 4.36 speed, he is more than capable of exploiting this weakness and breaking off a long rush. Denver has given up the most yards on the ground this season. They have given up a staggering 1,872 yards on the ground while having the No. 2 worst explosive yards given up at 36.3-percent. 7.1-percent of the runs against the Broncos are going for 15 yards or more. Therefore, we expect Gibbs to beat this line multiple times in this game. This line is currently -145 at most books. On BetOpenly, you can get this bet at -127.

Bijan Robinson (ATL) OVER 2.5 receptions (+104) 

Bijan Robinson has had a stellar rookie season with the Atlanta Falcons. This is in spite of Arthur Smith’s gross misuse of one of the best running backs in the NFL. He’s already amassed over 884 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns, showcasing his versatility as both a runner and a receiver. Robinson’s ability to make plays on the ground and through the air have made him a valuable asset to the Falcons’ offense.

Over the past three games, Robinson has seen his usage in the passing game increase significantly. He now boasts a 21.4-percent target share during those games. This increased involvement in the passing game is a strong indicator that Robinson will have more than 2.5 receptions this week against the Carolina Panthers. 

Panthers Defense

While the Carolina Panthers have a formidable defense, they have struggled at times against the run and in defending against pass-catching running backs. Recently they have surrendered the over to multiple backs including, Tony Pollard, Jonathan Taylor and Roschon Johnson. Robinson went for six receptions already this season against Carolina, and we expect a repeat performance here. 

Robinson currently is No. 3 on the Falcons in targets while having a 64-percent route run per team drop backs. Add in an incredible 346 yards after the catch and you can see why Atlanta fans have been frustrated that Robinson has not gotten an even a larger portion of the opportunities. The last three weeks Robinson, on top of his 21.4-percent target share, has also seen an increase to a 72-percent snap share. This line is currently -110 to -119 at the major sports books. You can get this for +104 at BetOpenly.