Week 16 MNF Showdown: Chargers vs Colts

by Dookie Hogue · Betting & Props

Welcome to the Week 16 MNF Showdown! The Colts should have their hands full, coming off a historic blown lead and facing a streaking Chargers team on the fast track. With poor quarterback play and loss of stud running back, Jonathan Taylor, the Colts seem content to phone it in. I’m all in on the Chargers in what looks like a game they will win handily. Without further ado, let’s dig in for Week 16’s MNF Showdown!

Chargers vs Colts Odds:
Chargers -4.5 (-104) |
Over/Under 45.5 (-110/110) |
Moneyline Chargers -210/Colts +176 |

The Chargers

Justin Herbert (QB8) has cleared 300 Passing Yards in back to back Chargers’ wins. Part of Herbert’s recent success can be attributed to the return of stud targets, Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle). I like Herbert to stay hot facing a Colts defense that has collapsed without warning. Though the Colts rank No. 5 in Passing Yards Allowed and No. 7 in Passing Touchdowns Allowed this season, that doesn’t paint the whole picture. Since Week 13, the Colts’ defense has bled points: 54 to Dallas and 39 to Minnesota. Fire up Herbert as a ceiling QB1 against this despondent defense.

Rushing and Receiving

Friend of the site, Austin Ekeler profiles as a slate-breaking RB1 in a dream matchup. The Colts’ swinging-door defense has been sliced-up recently by opponent backs. They have allowed a league-high six Rushing Touchdowns to running backs since Week 13. Ekeler’s elite 19-percent Target Share trails only notable target-hogs Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara (among qualified backs). Ekeler is the overall RB1 (PPR) with a league-leading eight RB5 or better finishes.

Since his Week 11 return from injury, Keenan Allen is the team-leader in Targets (52), Target Share (25.2-percent) and Air Yards (461). The reliable veteran is WR16 in this recent five week span. Allen is a solid WR1. Mike Williams refilled his position as deep-threat WR2 upon his return. His 14.35 aDOT and 36.8-percent Air Yard Share is more confirmation of his role. Williams is a WR2 with big-play touchdown equity. I’m treating Gerald Everett as a TE1 at a tough position to peg. Everett (TE9) is No. 7 in Receptions (52) and No. 9 in Receiving Yards (532). Indy’s defense ranks No. 26 in DVOA against tight ends.

The Colts

Matt Ryan was tethered to a second historic loss following the Vikings’ vehement come from behind victory over the Colts. With Ryan sent back to the bench (for a second time), the team opted instead for a similarly statuesque Nick Foles. Foles makes his return to NFL action on the one year anniversary of his last NFL snap (12/26 against the Seahawks). His installation bodes well for the Chargers defense and any Chargers spread bettors. In his last season with more than one start (2020), Foles was QB32 in fantasy points per game.

Rushing and Receiving

Jonathan Taylor was shut down for the season after re-injuring his ankle in Week 15’s loss to Minnesota. In his stead, Zack Moss and Deon Jackson saw added looks out of the backfield. Moss out-snapped Jackson 67 to 32 (percent Snap Shares) adding a team-high 24 Carries. Both backs make for logical plays against a Chargers defense that permits the No. 2 most Rushing Yards per game to opponent backs (128.2). My only hesitation is the expected negative Game Script the Colts will likely face.

Michael Pittman leads the Colts’ receiver group with a respectable 27.6-percent Target Share (No. 12 in the league amongst all position groups). Be that as it may, Pittman has had trouble filling the stat-sheet.  He’s only eclipsed 61 Receiving Yards once since Week 12 and has just one score all season. He profiles more as a WR3 as his massive opportunities have been mostly squandered by poor quarterback play. Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce are fadeable in a wait-and-see spot with Foles under center. Jelanie Woods has 5 Targets since Week 13.

Score Prediction: Chargers 23 Colts 13

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