This is RB’s Projected for More Volume! Using PlayerProfiler‘s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics – we’ve unearthed four RBs projected for more volume.
Below are key statistics to know while following along:
Route Participation – How frequently a pass-catcher runs a route on his team’s pass plays.
Target Rate / Targets Per Routes Run – How frequently a pass-catcher commands a target in context with his Route Participation mark.
Weighted Opportunities – Determines which backs receive the most meaningful touches.
Miles Sanders is an impending free agent and one of the RBs projected for more volume in 2023. Enter Ken Gainwell. The former totaled a 66.4-percent Opportunity Share (No. 12) on an Eagles team averaging 31.9 team run plays per game last season. Although he totaled 26 targets (No. 45), Sanders totaled 259 carries (No. 8) and the third-most Green Zone carries at 26. The opportunity parlayed into 1,269 yards (No. 5) and 11 total touchdowns (No. 9). Sanders created 196.2 Weighted Opportunities (No. 17) as well.
Good thing for Gainwell, he totals a 4.4 true yards-per-carry clip (No. 26) and an +9.6 EPA. Unlike Sanders, though, Gainwell’s ADP makes him a low-risk, high-reward player. The Eagles total the fifth-most vacated RB touches and rank No. 6 in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards metric, as well.
Jamaal Williams, and his 182.3 created Weighted Opportunities (No. 22), is an impending free agent as well. It’s D’Andre Swift‘s time to shine now. Williams totaled a 51.4-percent Opportunity Share (No. 33) last season. He also totaled 262 carries (No. 7) on a Lions team averaging 28.1 team run plays per game (No. 13) as well. Williams totaled the most Green Zone carries, parlaying the opportunity into 17 total touchdowns (No. 2) with 1,066 rushing yards (No. 10) on 262 carries (No. 7). Whereas Williams totaled 16 targets (No. 67), Swift, as a part-time player, totaled 48 receptions (No. 12) on 70 targets (No. 10), and the Lions targeted RBs at a 20.6 percent clip (No. 13) last season. Earning targets is a skill. Williams vacates 218 routes, too. Swift, meanwhile, will likely see a lot of that opportunity and will have the potential to finish as a top-five RB next season if Williams walks. The Lions total 328 vacated RB touches (No. 6) as well.
Impending free agent David Montgomery totaled a 60.3 Opportunity Share (12.6 carries per game;2.5 targets per game) last season. Enter Khalil Herbert who totaled a 5.2 True Yards Per Carry (No. 5) and 5.7 Yards Per Touch (No. 7). Montgomery, meanwhile, parlayed his opportunity into 732 yards (No. 33) with 9 receptions for 57 yards and five total touchdowns. Herbert’s efficiency metrics suggest he can best those numbers in Montgomery’s role. For reference, Montgomery totaled 3.9 True Yards Per Carry (No. 50) and 4.8 Yards Per Touch (No. 31). The Bears total 235 vacated RB touches (No. 10) as well. Herbert’s a PlayerProfiler favorite.
Tom Brady retired, so who knows what the Buccaneers’ offense is going to look like. Leonard Fournette vacates a 58.7 percent Opportunity Share (No. 20), though. Enter Rachaad White who averaged 11. 8 carries per game and 5.2 targets per game. In 16 games, Fournette averaged 41.8 rushing yards per game, and he totaled 73 receptions (No. 3) on 83 targets (No. 4) for 523 yards (No. 3) as well. The Fournette-less Bucs total 272 (No. 8) vacate RB touches.
Fournette also vacates 362 routes run (No. 4). White, as a part-time player, totaled 7.6 carries per game and 3.4 targets per game, 50 receptions (No. 11) on 58 targets (No. 12) for 290 yards (No. 19). He has an outside chance at becoming Austin Ekeler light.