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We are coming off another winner in Week 12, and it’s time to keep streaking. If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100% deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for Week 13.
Ahaan’s Week 13 Picks
Younghoe Koo (ATL) HIGHER than 1.5 Field Goals Made
This is a classic case of “don’t overthink it.” The 33.5-point Vegas total in the Falcons vs. Jets matchup is the lowest of Week 13. The route to low-scoring games is a lack of touchdowns. With Desmond Ridder at quarterback, I have no interest in backing the Falcons offense to be efficient. Instead, let’s ask them to just visit the red zone a few times. This is especially true considering Jets quarterback Tim Boyle will likely provide them some short-field drives. The Jets defense can do the rest for us with timely stops near the end zone.
Only one opposing kicker this season (Jake Elliott in an outright loss) failed to attempt two field goals against the Jets this season. New York’s defense is one of the best in the league. Additionally, Koo is one of the best kickers in the NFL. Therefore, let’s take advantage.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) HIGHER than 5.0 Receptions
We’re staying in the same game for our pick to pair with Koo. While Tim Boyle leaves much to be desired in the efficiency department, there is one thing we can give him credit for in his brief career as a starter in the NFL—consistency in targeting his alphas. The most recent example is Boyle giving Amon-Ra St. Brown a 31-percent target share in his previous two-game starting stint for the Detroit Lions. In his first start for the Jets last week, Garrett Wilson recorded seven receptions on 10 targets.
In Week 13, they face a Falcons defense that has caved against No. 1 options. The most recent top-receiving performances against the Falcons are as follows:
- Chris Olave: 7 receptions, 114 receiving yards
- Trey McBide: 8 receptions, 131 receiving yards
- T.J. Hockenson: 7 receptions, 69 receiving yards
- DeAndre Hopkins: 4 receptions, 128 receiving yards
Let’s trust New York’s No. 1 option to get the volume he is used to throughout the early days of his NFL career.
Trevor’s Week 13 Picks
Rachaad White (TB) HIGHER than 88.5 Rush+Rec Yards
Followers of the Pick ‘Em Power Hour and this article series know that we are big fans of the Rachaad White profile and role. The Carolina Panthers rank No. 17 in drop back EPA/play and No. 32 in rush EPA/play allowed as a defense. There isn’t much they can do to stop the Buccaneers offense, and White has a steady role in this operation. Against similarly soft matchups, White has been a machine, posting 110 total yards against the Colts, 103 total yards against a Bears defense that is actually solid against the run, and 119 yards against the Texans.
In a revenge spot for Baker Mayfield at home against Carolina, White could get a positive game script and clear this projection on the ground alone. However, his steady role as Mayfield’s checkdown security blanket makes the scrimmage yards a much better target.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) HIGHER than 6.5 Receptions
To finish up this entry, we are backing one of the most underrated wide receivers in football. He is the safety blanket for Gardner Minshew—Mr. Alpha himself, Michael Pittman Jr. In Week 13, the Colts face a Titans defense that is a bottom-10 unit against wide receivers under most metrics, including receptions allowed.
Pittman has cleared this projection in five of his six games since Minshew became the permanent starter at quarterback, and on the season, he ranks No. 8 in the NFL in target share (30.7-percent).