This weekly series covers several cost-efficient wide receivers who provide massive upside for GPP tournament lineups. These are typically wideouts with high volatility in a pass-heavy environment in a game projected to produce a lot of points. We’ll use advanced stats and metrics from the PlayerProfiler Data Analysis Tool to identify each player.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
Chase Claypool has been as boom-or-bust as they come. He exploded for 116 yards and four touchdowns in Week 5 to finish as the WR1. He followed that up with a combined five targets in Weeks 6-7, with WR13 and WR99 finishes. In last Sunday’s win over the Ravens, Claypool landed somewhere in the middle at WR32, catching five of his team-high nine targets for 42 yards and a touchdown.
Even with Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster playing ahead of him, Claypool has been incredibly efficient with his opportunities. He averages 16.3 (No. 13 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Reception, 11.0 (No. 11) Yards Per Target and 2.40 (No. 13) Yards Per Route Run. He’s top-five with 3.02 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Target, 0.66 (No. 3) Fantasy Points per Route Run, a +36.7 (No. 4) Production Premium, and a 144.0 (No .4) Quarterback Rating when Targeted. He also leads all qualified wideouts with a +81.8-percent Target Premium, which measures his efficiency in context within the Steelers offense. The point is, Claypool has been awesome when he’s been given the opportunity.
We know he is capable of massive boom weeks, and Week 9 has all the makings of being one of those outings. The game has an over/under above 50 points, and the Cowboys allow the sixth-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. With Diontae Johnson battling through injuries seemingly every week, the Steelers will lean on their star rookie more often. He is reasonably priced at $5,700 on DraftKings.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson is coming off a down week thanks to an explosive performance from Dalvin Cook, who scored all four of Minnesota’s touchdowns in Week 8. But before the bye week—when Jefferson was featured here—he caught nine of his 11 targets for 166 yards and two touchdowns against Atlanta. He took advantage of a poor Falcons secondary and will look to do the same against the Lions, who rank in the bottom half of the league in Fantasy Points per Game allowed to wide receivers, and who just gave up three touchdown passes to Philip Rivers.
Jefferson has been killing it. He leads all qualified wide receivers with 3.06 Yards Per Route Run and a +52.0 Production Premium, while ranking No. 3 with 14.1 Yards Per Target and +46.9 Expected Points Added. Assuming Matthew Stafford passes COVID-19 protocols and plays in this one, Jefferson should be more involved in what may turn into a shootout. This game has an over/under of 51 points, one of the highest totals of the week. Jefferson is moderately priced at $6,100 on DraftKings.
Marvin Hall, Detroit Lions
This one goes a bit deeper. Literally. Marvin Hall is one of the better deep threats in the league when given the chance. He only caught seven passes in 2019, but six of them went for over 20 yards and five went for over 30 yards. With an incredible 24.6 career Yards Per Reception average, Hall saw greater opportunity in Week 8 with Kenny Golladay exiting early with an injury. He took full advantage, showing off his explosive ability with 113 yards on four receptions. It wasn’t a fluke performance either. Hall ran 31 routes while participating in 72.7-percent of the offensive snaps.
We’re definitely playing some Marvin Hall in #DFS this week, right?
Career #YardsPer Reception of 24.6
86% of 2019 receptions >20 yds
31 routes/ 72.7% Snap Share in Wk 8#Vikings pass D is awful – allow 3rd most yds/pass attempt & 3rd most fantasy pts per game to WRs
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) November 6, 2020
Danny Amendola and Marvin Jones are safer bets for production, but at $3,800, it’s hard to resist the upside Hall brings vs cost. He’s averaged a Target Distance of 22.5 yards, with 24.1 Yards Per Reception. Hall will see a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt (8.5) and the third-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers.
K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos
Another big-play threat with an opportunity to explode in Week 9 is Broncos rookie K.J. Hamler, who caught all three of his targets for 13 yards and the game-winning touchdown in last Sunday’s thrilling 31-30 win over the Chargers. The second-rounder from Penn State has struggled to establish himself as a consistent threat in Denver’s offense with recurring hamstring injuries and some backup quarterback play. But with both he and Drew Lock fully healthy together in Week 8, Hamler was on the field for 86-percent of the offensive snaps. He ran 38 routes. Before the injuries, Hamler ran 39 routes with a 100.0-percent Snap Share in Week 3.
Check out K.J. Hamler on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
While he has yet to make the big splash plays we saw in college, Hamler has the speed to get deep and burn any cornerback for a long score. If his Week 8 usage continues, he will have some boom weeks. Week 9 against Atlanta is a great opportunity for one of those outings. The Falcons have been burned all season and have allowed the fifth-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. He’s just $3,400 on DraftKings.