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Thank you to the Steelers for adding interest to what is usually the least action-packed part of the fantasy football calendar. First, they signed Aaron Rodgers (although that wasn’t much of a surprise), and now they have traded for Jonnu Smith, reuniting him with OC Arthur Smith. This move has fantasy implications in both Pittsburgh and Miami, as Jonnu was a shockingly big part of the Dolphins’ offense last season and figures to be heavily involved for the Steelers in 2025. This one move impacts the fantasy football values of Rodgers, Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, De’Von Achane, Pat Freiermuth, Tua Tagovailoa, and even some tertiary options in both Pittsburgh and Miami (is it Julian Hill season?). Let’s get right into the biggest fantasy winners and losers from the Jonnu Smith trade.
Jonnu Smith Trade Fantasy Football Implications
Winner?: Jonnu Smith
Let’s start with the man of the hour, as I have a counterintuitive take on what this move means for Jonnu that will inform my views on several of the other players in this article. At first glance, this move looks bad for Smith’s fantasy value. He finished as the TE6 in Half-PPR points per game in 2024, his first season as a Dolphin. That number might even undersell just how strong his usage was to end the season, as he averaged 12.8 points per game from Week 5 onward, which would have landed him behind only George Kittle for the whole year. Jonnu is very unlikely to approach that level of production, splitting snaps with Pat Freiermuth in what figures to be a slow-paced, run-heavy Steelers offense.
Consider The Implications
However, we have to consider what this trade implies about the Dolphins’ offensive plans for 2025. The reason that Jonnu’s 2024 got off to such a slow start is that he wasn’t a featured part of Mike McDaniel’s offense to start the season, with two or fewer targets in three of the first four weeks. His role expanded out of necessity, as a woeful offensive line and injuries to Tagovailoa forced the Dolphins to rely on quick-hitting dump-offs in the passing game. Given that they were willing to move Jonnu, it seems likely that McDaniel and Co. planned to return to a more traditional passing offense and scale their TE usage back down. That means that Jonnu’s theoretical repeat elite season was more of a mirage than a reality.
With this in mind, heading to Pittsburgh is a win for Smith’s actual fantasy value, even if his ADP will likely fall now that we know that ceiling is gone. In a retuned Miami offense, he would be the third option for targets behind Hill and Waddle, if not fourth behind Achane. But the Steelers’ stable of receiving options is unimpressive, and we know that Arthur Smith loves to use TEs (including Jonnu himself in Atlanta). Jonnu is now arguably the favorite to rank second on Pittsburgh’s offense in targets behind only DK Metcalf. Teams don’t trade for players to not use them, and nobody is trading for Smith for his run-blocking ability. If he can earn the job, serving as Aaron Rodgers‘ second target should secure his floor as a solid TE1, even if his hypothetical ceiling isn’t quite as juicy as it was in Miami.
Huge Loser: Pat Freiermuth
If you’ve played fantasy football for any length of time, you know that it is nearly impossible for an NFL team to support two fantasy-relevant tight ends. This scenario requires an elite offense and both players to be difference-makers in the receiving game. Neither of those elements is present in Pittsburgh. Sticking with my theory that NFL teams don’t make trades for no reason, that makes this move a death knell for Pat Freiermuth‘s fantasy value. Even in a best-case scenario, where he holds off Jonnu to remain the Steelers’ TE1, the fifth-year player is essentially guaranteed to lose at least some usage. Given that he was already by no means a surefire TE1, Freiermuth can be crossed off draft boards in most formats at this point.
Huge Winner: Jaylen Waddle
After a strong start to his career, Waddle’s fantasy performances have trended in the wrong direction for the past two seasons. Last year was especially disappointing, as he ranked as just the WR56 with under eight Half-PPR points per game. Glancing at the Dolphins’ target log, it’s easy to see that Jonnu’s usage was a big part of Waddle’s disappointing year. After posting at least a 20-percent target share in each of the first three years of his career, Waddle averaged just a 15.4-percent target share last season. Plenty of those targets went Smith’s way, as the Dolphins ranked seventh in the league with a 26.6-percent TE target share. That was a particularly massive increase from rates of 13.3 percent and 9.5 percent in 2023 and 2024, both of which ranked dead last in the NFL.
Even if the Dolphins don’t return to essentially ignoring their TEs in the passing game, Waddle is the biggest beneficiary of the change in approach implied by this move and the decreased target competition in Miami. He will rise from his current Underdog ADP of WR32, and I am buying even at an increased cost. Waddle is still a very talented young receiver in what has previously been a truly elite offense. Remember, we were drafting him as the WR21 last season, even coming off a down 2023. I wouldn’t go quite that high to draft him even after this good news, but we probably won’t have to.
Small Winner: Tyreek Hill
On the one hand, everything I just said about Waddle also applies to Hill. The speedster had a down season in 2024, and his target share decreased as more looks went underneath to Jonnu. However, this move doesn’t move the needle for Hill, because his fantasy value doesn’t truly depend on Smith’s presence. If Tyreek Hill is still Tyreek Hill, he is going to put up elite fantasy numbers regardless of his competition. If he has lost a step (or two), things could get ugly fast for the speed-reliant 31-year-old. Losing a competitor for targets is never a bad thing, so this is still a small upgrade in Hill’s value. But the bet you make when clicking his name in a fantasy draft is still the same as it was before this trade, so don’t move him too far in your rankings.
Small Loser: DK Metcalf
Metcalf is essentially the inverse of Hill. He is technically a loser, as adding target competition is essentially never a good thing for a receiver (and please don’t try to argue that Jonnu Smith is going to draw the defense’s attention away from Metcalf to make up for it). But even with the addition of Jonnu, Metcalf is still the undisputed top weapon in one of the most talent-bereft receiving groups in the league. Metcalf will see plenty of targets, and his performance will depend on how his connection with Rodgers develops. His ranking shouldn’t move down much, if at all, in response to this news.
Winner: De’Von Achane
Along with Jonnu, Achane was the other big fantasy beneficiary of the Dolphins’ dink-and-dunk approach to the 2024 season. His rushing efficiency cratered after his historic rookie season, but he made up for it by easily leading all RBs with an absurd 78 receptions. En route to finishing as the Half-PPR RB6, Achane scored over half of his fantasy points through the air. The only other top-36 RB to reach that threshold was Rachaad White (RB23).
With this in mind, the overall thesis of this article, that the Dolphins are moving away from their quick-game-centric 2024 offense, is bad news for Achane. After all, over 94 percent of his targets came within five yards of the line of scrimmage, including 63.5 percent behind the line. However, Jonnu was Achane’s biggest competition for targets in those areas, with 84 such looks (Waddle and Hill combined for 93). Even if this move means the Dolphins rely less on short, quick passes this season, it also means Achane will see a much greater share of those targets. That makes him a winner, especially in PPR formats.
Losers: Jaylen Warren, Calvin Austin III, & Roman Wilson
It’s hard to know exactly how big Smith’s role in the Steelers’ offense will be, but it’s guaranteed that he will see volume in this passing game. That’s bad news for this trio of players, all of whom were hoping to soak up some of the many targets to go around in Pittsburgh’s offense. Things aren’t too bad for Warren. His theoretical target ceiling is decreased, but the veteran RB’s value will still hinge on how he splits the Steelers’ backfield with rookie Kaleb Johnson.
However, Austin and Wilson, who previously both had a shot to compete with Freiermuth to be the team’s second-leading receiver, take bigger hits. We know that Arthur Smith loves playing formations with only one receiver (his 2023 Falcons offense easily led the league with a 17-percent rate of either 13 or 22 personnel). The addition of Jonnu as another starter-quality TE alongside Freiermuth increases the chances that Austin and Wilson won’t even be on the field, let alone seeing targets. The 2022 fourth-rounder and the 2024 third-rounder are both still draftable as a late-round flyer in deep leagues, but their paths to fantasy relevance just got a lot narrower.
Winners: Julian Hill, Malik Washington, & Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
While Pittsburgh’s tertiary fantasy options are losers, Miami’s are winners. It’s unlikely that any of these players will become weekly fantasy starters. That’s especially true for Hill, who may not even hold the TE1 job for long, as the Dolphins are reportedly looking to trade for a replacement. But for Dynasty leagues or deep Best Ball formats, anything that moves a player up the pecking order is a win. Hill is technically the team’s starting TE for now, Westbrook-Ikhine showed a nose for the end zone as a Titan last season, and I still have a soft spot for Washington and the absurd 3.15 yards per route run he posted in his final college season. Especially if either Waddle or Hill misses time — a common occurrence for both in recent years — one of these players could push for fantasy relevance.
Winner: Aaron Rodgers
This trade might move the Steelers’ receiving weapons from the bottom five in the league to only the bottom 10. Jonnu isn’t exactly the kind of player who can carry a quarterback’s fantasy production on his own, but adding another option certainly can’t hurt Rodgers’ value. Still, the 41-year-old is a backend QB2 or even a QB3 at this stage of his career.
Loser: Tua Tagovailoa
Honestly, I could talk myself into the implications of this trade being a good thing for Tua’s fantasy value. His fantasy results last year weren’t terrible, as he checked his way down to a QB13 finish in points per game. But his 6.1 ADOT was the lowest among qualified QBs, and he posted clearly his worst efficiency numbers in the Mike McDaniel era. The return to a more aggressive passing offense that Jonnu’s departure indicates is imminent should be good for his fantasy numbers. But assuming it is indeed happening, that philosophical change was certainly in the works before the trade as well. At the end of the day, Tua is losing a weapon, so he’s a slight fantasy loser.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
