Jonathan Taylor was fantasy football’s consensus 1.01 one season ago. Austin Ekeler was a top-three pick in many redraft leagues. They each were presumably low-risk running backs heading into 2022. Here’s how one exceeded lofty expectations, while the other fell well short.
Stud: Austin Ekeler
As a consensus top-three pick, Austin Ekeler was expected to produce, and produce he did. The Chargers RB finished No. 4 in total fantasy points and points per game in standard scoring. In non-standard leagues, he was the top running back.
The two main factors for Ekeler’s success in 2022 were receiving production and touchdowns. Ekeler was No. 1 in both targets and red zone touches among RBs. He also was No. 2 in target share at 18.9-percent, No. 1 in total touchdowns with 18, and No. 1 in receptions with 107.
As a runner, he was solid. Ekeler finished No.17 in rushing yards with 915, No. 20 in carries with 204, and No. 34 in True Yards Per Carry at 4.2. As indicated with Ekeler, being a top fantasy RB doesn’t necessarily mean elite rushing efficiency. This is an area Ekeler hasn’t quite thrived in relative to his receiving efficiency and red zone efficiency.
How Many Leagues Did You Have Him In?
I unfortunately missed on Austin Ekeler in all my leagues, since I had either the No. 1 overall pick or a late-round pick in all of my drafts. In hindsight, I should have taken him first overall considering he turned out to be the true safe pick.
When Did You Know He Was One of Your Guys?
As a fantasy player who prefers half PPR and PPR over standard leagues, an RB with high volume in the passing game is always a target of mine at the RB position. Combine his elite volume with elite efficiency, and that produces an elite RB to anchor a redraft roster.
Why Did You Like Him So Much?
Along with his obvious talent, Ekeler being in the Chargers offense is great for his fantasy production.
Austin Ekeler formation metrics
They are a pass-heavy offense with a young, talented quarterback in Justin Herbert. Not only does that play to Ekeler’s strengths, but it also means lighter boxes for the running game.
What Did You Learn?
It’s easy to overthink when drafting RBs, especially when the entire public is also overthinking. While getting up there in age, Ekeler still is talented and in a great situation. I won’t make the same mistake again this year.
Where Would You Be Comfortable Drafting Him in 2023?
Ekeler’s current redraft ADP is No. 10 overall (RB3) in PPR. In standard and half PPR, he is going No. 5 overall (RB2). I consider No.5 and RB2 to be the correct ADP for half PPR, and PPR. In standard, I’d take him a bit lower, essentially swapping his PPR ADP and his standard ADP. The only RB I’d take over Ekeler is Christian McCaffrey, a similar type of back in an even better situation.
Despite trade rumors and contract issues, I’m not too worried about Ekeler. As long as he is in a Chargers uniform, I’ll be happy taking him toward the top of the first round for 2023.
Dud: Jonathan Taylor
The consensus top pick, Jonathan Taylor was considered a no-brainer, safe pick at No. 1 overall in all league types. However, he fell well short of expectations. He only played in 11 games, and in those games he didn’t play well. He only scored four touchdowns, averaged 4.2 True Yards Per Carry, and ranked No. 17 in fantasy points per game among RBs with 13.3 in PPR leagues.
How Many Leagues Did You Have Him In?
I had Taylor in three leagues. I lucked out getting the first pick in two of my leagues. Due to blind faith, I decided to trade for him in a third league.
When Did You Know He Was One of Your Guys?
Once I got the first pick, I didn’t allow myself to consider anyone else. He seemed to be the safest RB pick in years. Every thought that crept into my mind of “Is he too good to be true?” was pushed away.
Why Did You Like Him So Much?
The Colts had a good offensive situation heading into 2022 on paper. They acquired veteran QB Matt Ryan who was expected to be solid. The Colts had a good offensive line led by Quenton Nelson and a solid receiving core led by Michael Pittman. A talented RB in a good offensive situation seemed destined to succeed.
What Did You Learn?
The concept of a safe RB pick is a myth. Jonathan Taylor was young, had elite previous production, and lacked an injury history. At No. 1 overall, drafters should have been chasing the higher upside with Ekeler and McCaffrey than the supposedly higher floor with Taylor. Upside will always reign supreme in fantasy football, especially at the top of the draft.
Where Would You Be Comfortable Drafting Him in 2023?
Despite a rough season, I still view Jonathan Taylor as a first-round pick in non-Superflex leagues. His lack of receiving production lowers his upside, but I still consider him an elite RB, right behind the elite RBs who produce more receiving-wise (McCaffrey, Ekeler, Bijan despite being a rookie), with the gap much closer in standard leagues.
He is currently going No.9, No.11, and No. 14 in standard, half PPR, and PPR respectively, which I consider fair. I’d rank Taylor at worst the RB4 in all league types. With Anthony Richardson coming in with a new coaching staff, it will be intriguing to see if the Colts running back can get back to his 2022 form or at least close to that level. With the potential for increased efficiency, a healthier season, and insane volume, the upside remains for Taylor heading into 2023.
