“Kirk Cousins isn’t sexy, but he’s dependable.” That’s what she said. Wait. That’s what I said!
It’s time for my DFS Week 4 picks! If you’ve been following along, you’ll know that these picks have been spot on. I’m not just tooting my own horn here; it’s science! Or is it data? Whatever you want to call it, just keep reading because the numbers don’t lie. Below, you’ll find my favorite picks for the Sunday main slate of games and a little bit about why. Let’s get into it!
Week 4 NFL DFS Picks
Kirk Cousins ($7.1 DraftKings / $7.9 FanDuel)
Kirk Cousins might not be the sexiest play, but he’s certainly the most consistent one, and the data shows it. Cousins has averaged 28 FPPG over the last three weeks. And while the Carolina defense is one of the stronger defenses, ranking No. 8 in the league against QBs, I’m confident Cousins will maintain his streak of consistency. Also? This salary is ridiculously low for the number of points this man brings to a team!
Justin Herbert ($7.8 DraftKings / $8.6K FanDuel)
If you’re looking for a sexy and dependable QB option in your DFS week 4 picks, Justin Herbert is your man! Herbert is another QB with a manageable salary and reliable consistency in his play. He’s averaged 26 FPPG over the last three weeks, with his low being in week one with 20 FPPG. The Chargers are facing a pretty weak Raiders defense, ranking No. 22 in the league against QBs, so I expect to see continued success from Herbert. He’s been a passing machine!
CJ Stroud ($5.6 DraftKings / $6.7 FanDuel)
Need a value pick? CJ Stroud might be who you’re looking for. With such a low salary and two pretty great performances in a row, he could be worth the risk. The Texans will be playing at home, going up against a pretty strong Steelers defense (ranking No. 12 against QBs). Stroud has averaged 19 FPPG, with Week 1 being his worst: 11 FPPG.
Raheem Mostert ($6.5 DraftKings / $7.9 FanDuel)
I look at this play with Raheem Mostert and wonder if it’s some kind of trick. Why is his salary so manageable, and why is his projected rostership so low at just 5-percent on DK and 1-percent on FD? Being as familiar with DFS as I am, it’s likely due to Miami facing a strong defense at home in Buffalo. Here’s the thing…this Miami offense has been insanely good over the last three weeks and Mostert has been leading the charge. Literally. I’m buying in on Mostert as one of my DFS week 4 picks.
Alexander Mattison ($5.8 DraftKings / $7.2 FanDuel)
I’d like to stack Alexander Mattison with Cousins. I know that we typically like to stack our QB with a receiver, but Mattison is clearly earning the trust of Cousins. He’s averaging 16 touches per game and his snap count has gone up dramatically week over week, playing 80-percent of the snaps this past week. He’s a versatile pick for both Cash and GPP tournaments due to his consistency of play and midrange rostership of 11-percent.
Zach Moss ($6.0K DraftKings / $7.3 FanDuel)
Zack Moss feels like an extreme value this week at his salary, with a points projection over 14, and a midrange rostership of just 9-percent. He was out in Week 1, but the last two weeks have been stellar. He’s playing the majority of snaps and averaging 27 touches per game. Wanna talk points? He’s averaging over 20 FPPG on both platforms and the Rams defense is pretty terrible at stopping the run, ranking as low as No. 25 in the league in some models.
James Conner ($5.9 DraftKings / $6.3 FanDuel)
I’m including James Conner as part of my DFS week 4 picks because I feel like he’s still quite overlooked. While the Cardinals are facing arguably the best team in the league this week in the 49ers, they’re not amazing at stopping the run game. Conner though, he’s pretty amazing at getting through. He’s becoming a target hog, averaging 19.3 touches per week and playing around 75-percent of the snaps. Don’t underestimate this play. It’s at a great salary and a low rostership of just 4- to 5-percent projected.
Chris Olave ($7.1K DraftKings / $7.9 FanDuel)
I really like this matchup against these projections for Chris Olave. His salary is very manageable to work into your roster and he’s projected to bring in 15 FPPG this week against a flimsy Tampa Bay defense. Even with Derek Carr out and Jameis Winston taking over, Olave is still an elite player and should be played as such. In DFS formats, we’ll see fewer managers willing to play Olave without Carr at QB. That just leaves more cash on the table for you and me.
Keenan Allen ($7.9 DraftKings / $9.5 FanDuel)
Davante Adams ($8.0 DraftKings / $8.1 FanDuel)
These two wide receivers are duking it out this week to show who’s boss when it comes to receptions. On paper, they look pretty darn close. They’ve got similar, fairly pricey salaries, and equally high rostership projections of well over 20-percent. I will say that I’m pretty surprised at the disparity in salary between the two on FanDuel and would certainly choose Adams in that case. While neither of them fits the bill for a typical GPP roster construction, you’ll surely want one of them in your Cash games. Allen is projected to bring 19.4 FPPG and Adams is projected for 18.4 FPPG this week. You can’t really go wrong with either of these players. Oh, and each of their opponents’ defenses stinks, so we’re sure to see some scoring.
TJ Hockenson ($6.5 DraftKings / $7.2 FanDuel)
Without my usual favorite, Sam LaPorta, as part of the main slate this week, we’ll have to settle for TJ Hockenson. Hockenson has had a pretty good season so far. This week will be no exception. He’s projected to bring us over 13 FPPG with a low rostership projection of just 4-percent. This makes him a good candidate for both Cash and GPP games. He’s facing a pretty mediocre Carolina defense, so I’d expect a decent return on this pick.
Jake Ferguson ($3.5 DraftKings / $5.1 FanDuel)
Are we hurting for a decent tight end to play this week in DFS? Yes. Yes, we are. If you need a value pick on your roster because you spent too much on a high-end running back, you can save some cash with Jake Ferguson. He’s been playing around 70-percent of snaps and averaging 7 FPPG. He’s projected for 8.3 FPPG this week, so that tracks.
Depending on what you’ve got left in your salary cap, you might want to play the Eagles defense this week ($4.7 DraftKings / $5K FanDuel). The Commanders o-line has allowed 19 sacks in this first three weeks of the season. That’s the highest in the league. Sam Howell has thrown five interceptions, which is the second highest in the league. Seems like a no-brainer here.
If your pockets aren’t that deep, like the Ravens defense on DraftKings this week at just $3.2K. They’re projected to bring 7.8 FPPG at just 4-percent rostership. Over on FanDuel, they’re $4.1K with 6-percent rostership, so that tells me that we’re on the right track here as far as defenses go. The Ravens defense has shown some struggles, but in this matchup against the Browns, I think they’ll come out on top. The Browns are just too unpredictable at this point to put any weight on their offense.
Now that you’ve seen my picks, have you checked out the PlayerProfiler DFS Dominator and Fantasy Tools? There are options for every budget and every fantasy football use case, from sports betting to creating and maintaining the most optimized league roster. I’ve been making it a habit to run my favorite lineups through the tools, and it’s paid off every week.
If you’ve got any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the app formerly known as Twitter, @KellyInPhoenix. Thanks for reading! See you next week!