Best Fantasy Football Picks | Christian Watson, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin?

by Christopher Buonagura · Best Ball Plays & Strategy

Fantasy Football is a constant cycle of analysis and ranking players with the hopes of drafting a league-winning team. Everyone has a set system until it is time to make the pick while “On The Clock.” We all know the panic decisions that result from the stress of picking between multiple players with the same value. PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics can help turn a panic pick into a genius decision that will have your league enamored for years to come. In this edition of Best Fantasy Football Picks, I’ll examine some Round 4 wide receivers to determine which of them is the best pick at the current value.

Christian Watson WR 22 (ADP 56)

Christian Watson is a hot button name after scoring eight touchdowns in a four week stretch in his rookie season. His profile is highlighted by head-turning athleticism with elite 40-yard dash and Speed Score. Watson totaled 45 receptions (65 targets), 611 yards and nine total touchdowns last season.

Christian Watson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

He finished as the WR32 in PPR points per game. His current ADP shows confidence that he is a surefire WR2 with high end WR1 upside.

The Profile

Watson may improve in 2023, but his profile presents some skepticism. Touchdown totals are notorious for being an unreliable signal into a rookie’s future. Watson only earned a 15-percent targets share (No. 62 overall). He was No. 93 in routes run and No. 27 in yards after the catch. His low YAC and minimal opportunity are alarming when considering his production largely came from a handful of big plays. One positive indicator for Watson is his ability to earn deep targets. His 18 deep targets on 65 total targets is impressive.

The Situation

The Green Bay Packers offense is riddled with ambiguity entering this season. The entire team is in a transitory season with major changes among all position groups. Jordan Love has upside after learning behind Aaron Rodgers for three seasons. Love projects to offer average production at best in his first starting season. Fortunately, Watson’s target competition is mostly rookies and fringe starters, leaving plenty of opportunity up for grabs.

One concern for Watson will be the deep target volume that he feasted on as a rookie. Aaron Rodgers threw 81 deep passes in 2022 (No. 2 overall) while Jordan Love has only attempted 10 deep balls in his career (two completed). Another concern is the return of Romeo Doubs. Watson and Doubs have overlapping roles and Watsons eight TD stretch came when Doubs missed time with injury. The pros offset the cons when evaluating Watson’s team situation heading into this season. The essential question is this: Is Watson one of the Best Fantasy Football Picks to make in your draft? Let’s compare Watson to some other wide receivers.

DJ Moore WR 23 (ADP 57.68)

D.J. Moore re-entered the fantasy WR2 market after being dealt to the Chicago Bears. Moore has a long history of playing in the worst fantasy situations imaginable.

Despite this, he always performs with a WR2 floor. Many believe he is ready for a career year at age 26.2 with the revamped Bears offense.

The Profile

Moore has earned over 24-percent of his team targets in each of the last four seasons. He was top 20 in yards after the catch from 2019-2021 (with a dip across the board in 2022). Historically, Moore has dominated every advanced metric available on PlayerProfiler. Furthermore, his all-purpose skillset is reflected in his career deep targets, YAC, and yards per target. His talent is undeniable. The concern for Moore revolves around the Bears’ offense and its ability to unlock his potential WR1 ceiling.

The Situation

Nobody doubts that Moore will be the unquestioned alpha in the Bears receiving room. Justin Fields enters his third season with the best weapons of his career. Fields has struggled to provide consistent production as a thrower in his first two seasons. There is no reason to think he won’t take a step forward in his second season playing in Luke Getsy’s offense. Fields had historic college production with 67-percent+ completion percentages and unreal touchdown efficiency. Is this enough to make Moore one of the Best Fantasy Football Picks?

Terry McLaurin WR 24 (ADP 57.84)

Terry McLaurin is a fan favorite after years of success playing for Washington. McLaurin has suffered the same poor quarterback play as Moore since entering the league. His playmaking always impresses despite never achieving league-winning upside. Fantasy football players are holding faith for McLaurin entering his age 28 season.

The Profile

McLaurin and Moore offer similar profiles. Neither have put it together in one season. However, you can find examples of elite performance at every metric offered by PlayerProfiler. Most notable for McLaurin is that his target shares are always between 20-25-percent whereas Moore has two seasons with 28-percent. He has never finished higher than WR20 in PPR points per game. There is a touch of concern that McLaurin’s ceiling may be limited despite his raw talent.

The Situation

McLaurin presents the worst situation among these three. He must compete for targets with impressive sophomore Jahan Dotson and hybrid WR Curtis Samuel. The Commanders enter the season with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett as their options at QB. Both options offer low-end upside in 2023. There is limited touchdown equity in a generally bleak offense.

The Best Fantasy Football Pick

All three players have talent to offer. Watson’s ceiling is theoretically the highest, however the other two have more accomplished resumes. All three players have concerns with overall volume, QB play, and TD equity. The winner will inevitably the one who scores the most touchdowns and is relatively unpredictable.

The Best Fantasy Football Pick has to be the player with the best career finish, an ascending offense, and the highest upside QB. Moore offers a safe floor and WR1 upside and should be taken with confidence in the 4th round of fantasy football drafts.