Week 7 is here. We got underway with Ben Johnson once again walking the line between barefaced bravado and recklessness in a win against Drake Maye and the New England Patriots.
After this week, we will officially be halfway through the fantasy football season in leagues where the playoffs start in Week 15. While we have some major injuries and byes, we have the expected return of several relevant fantasy players headlined by Saquon Barkley.
You will have some big, potentially gross, lineup decisions to make. But before we get into this week’s meat and potatoes, let’s take a look at how last week went.
The scoring system is simple: closest to the final rank wins. I highlighted these players before Sunday’s games:
Kirk Cousins – Sportsbooks win
MarShawn Lloyd – Sportsbooks win
Carnell Tate – Sportsbooks win
Colston Loveland – Sportsbooks win
We got ourselves the first clean sweep of the season. The sportsbooks take Week 6, which takes us to:
Sportsbooks: 2
Experts: 2
Tie: 2
“Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.”
Let’s dive into Week 7.
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Sportsbook Rankings vs Expert Consensus Rankings
C.J. Stroud | QB, Houston Texans
Sportsbook Rank: QB4
Expert Rank: QB9
A great rookie season is worth clinging to. It’s like continuing to watch every season of Lost even though it drastically declined in quality. C.J. Stroud‘s rookie campaign was sensational. From a fantasy perspective, he finished as the QB9. The following two seasons alternated between the mediocrity and disaster, with a couple of impressive games sprinkled throughout. Sure, there were mitigating circumstances — Stroud had one of the worst offensive lines in the league by any metric and struggled to have any semblance of a run game post-Joe Mixon.
Is C.J. Stroud back?
Through Week 6, he has the highest PFF grade and EPA efficiency of his career pic.twitter.com/t9urPn50qB
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) October 19, 2026
We’ve seen players bet on themselves in contract negotiations before. It can go one of two ways, especially in a league where injuries are so commonplace — just look at my fantasy roster. Stroud has earned himself a lot of money this season. Heading into the season, that looked unlikely. Stroud was coming off one of the worst playoff runs in recent history. Across two games, Stroud threw five interceptions and had five fumbles. There were strong calls for Davis Mills to replace him at half-time in the Divisional Round after he threw four interceptions in one half.
Now, Stroud this season:
- QB11 in fantasy points per game
- 285 passing yards per game
- 2nd in passing yards
- 7th success rate
- 8th yards per attempt
- 9th EPA per play
- 9 TDs against only 1 INT
Stroud faces the New York Giants, who are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks through six weeks. Stroud has the sixth-highest passing-yard total (256.5) among all quarterbacks and the ninth-highest rushing-yard total (10.5). The books have Stroud as the QB4 of the week.
Ollie Gordon II | RB, Miami Dolphins
Sportsbook Rank: RB24
Expert Rank: RB16
After De’Von Achane tore his ACL, the unenviable job of being the running back on one of the worst projected offenses in the NFL was up for grabs. Ollie Gordon grabbed the bull by the horns and has looked impressive in the three games he has played as the starter. Gordon is averaging 16 touches, 81 scrimmage yards, and one touchdown per game. He has finished as the RB13, RB16 and RB17.
Ollie Gordon II of the Miami Dolphins is 6th in the NFL at 5.02 yards per carry pic.twitter.com/lfAveBN47I
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) October 20, 2026
For a backup plucked from the hopes and dreams of a Must-Add Waiver Wire League Winners of Week 4 article, Gordon has been a major success. In Week 7, the sportsbooks think that Gordon won’t finish as an RB2 for the first time this season. They have him as the RB24, whilst the experts have him as the RB16. Despite the Jets giving up the sixth-most rushing yards per game (105.8), Gordon ranks 17th in rushing-yard total (50.5) and has a receiving line of just 7.5 yards and 1.5 receptions. That could be due to the fact that the Dolphins are visiting the red zone at one of the lowest rates in football (2.6 visits per game).
DeVonta Smith | WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Sportsbook Rank: WR9
Expert Rank: WR17
AJ Brown’s trade to the New England Patriots opened up a whole new world of opportunities for DeVonta Smith. It’s like when you take your first trip away from your parents and leave your hometown. Although the season has gotten off to an inauspicious start for the Eagles, only six players are averaging more targets per game than Smith’s 10.2 per game. That’s elite usage, even if you factor in the fact that Smith will be catching passes from Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts was ruled out for the season.
While the Eagles are a derisory 2-4 through six weeks, they aren’t out of the race for the NFC East by any means. They face the similarly reeling Dallas Cowboys in Week 7. The Cowboys’ defensive statistics make a compelling case for Christian Parker’s job. They rank:
- Most EPA per play allowed (+01.156)
- 2nd highest explosive play rate allowed (11.6%)
- 3rd most total yards allowed per game (382.5)
- 7th most points per game allowed (26.5)
- 5th most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in the last four weeks
- T-3rd most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers
Even with McKee as the starting quarterback, Smith has the 12th-highest receiving-yard total (67.5) with a receptions total of 6.5, which is tied for third-most among all receivers. The experts are factoring in McKee, whilst the books feel confident the Cowboys defense will continue to prove an all-you-can-eat buffet for opposing offenses.
Kenyon Sadiq | TE, New York Jets
Sportsbook Rank: TE17
Expert Rank: TE24
Ironically, having a rookie in fantasy is like getting out of bed in the morning as you get older. Sometimes it’s great. Sometimes not so much. So far with rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq, there has been more of the “not so much.” Outside of a huge game against the Detroit Lions, who by any metric are one of the worst defenses in the league, Sadiq averages around three targets and roughly 11 yards per game. Nothing to write home about.
Kenyon Sadiq‘s Advanced Metrics
The books think that Sadiq could be featured against the Miami Dolphins in Week 7 — and for good reason. Through six weeks, the Dolphins are giving up 19.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends, which ranks among the four most favorable matchups in fantasy. They are also giving up 76.2 receiving yards per game. Admittedly, Sadiq is a pretty speculative start even in what looks like a smash matchup. He was only on the field for 35% of the snaps in Week 6.
Elliott Troop is a fantasy football analyst for PlayerProfiler.
Follow @StartSitEmFF
