2026-27 NFL Teams’ Strength of Schedule | Rankings Updated July 17

by Samwise · Featured
Updated 2026 NFL Strength of Schedule

In fantasy football, one of the most invaluable tools is the ever-evolving set of metrics used to predict player outcomes. Everywhere you turn, someone is referring to things like the GBLxWRS(A+) (grass blade length affected by wide receivers’ speed (adjusted for groundskeeping).

In all seriousness, though, the ranging statistics that analysts and managers spend hours poring over are meant to give the more diligent fantasy football players a decided advantage. Be it drafting, starts/sits, or waiver claims, in this day and age, in an ultra-competitive landscape, every little nuance matters tenfold.

The Fantasy Sports & Gaming Association (FSGA) estimates a staggering 60 million fantasy sports players in the USA and Canada ALONE. On a global scale, fantasy sports (especially American football) is an estimated $35-41 billion industry. This is why metrics and competitive advantages are so important. But there is one metric that directly affects player performance, and it’s not all black-and-white.

The “Strength of Schedule” (SoS) weighting that you see cited ad nauseam from the big networks is directly correlated to money. More ticket sales, more sponsorships, more commercials, etc. That’s the main reason they start pumping the info to the masses right after the Super Bowl. God forbid fans (and managers) should have a realistic view at their fingertips.

With that in mind, an updated view of individual teams’ SoS prior to your drafts is of the utmost importance. A lot has happened since February. Coaching staff changes. Free agency. The 2026 NFL Draft. These all change the landscape considerably.

Hop right in and let’s navigate what’s changed. It could be a difference-maker for your 2026 campaign.

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A few notes before diving into what separates this version of the SoS

As injuries and additional free-agent signings trickle in during training camps, the listing will be updated as needed if there are any major changes. Bookmark this page to create your pre-draft rankings and tiers and to navigate in-season trades and waiver claims.

The SoS is constructed after the assembly of what we assume will be each team’s staff and roster, heading into the season. It takes those factors into account, and a big h/t to Warren Sharp (Sharp Football Analysis), whose proprietary gambling model analyzes the tremendous “rest disparity” during the season, noting that teams play at a decided disadvantage with less preparation throughout the week.

Some of those pertinent notes will be mentioned in comments if egregious. In 2026, nearly half of all games will feature a team competing on short rest, and the model includes that, along with individual and consensus Las Vegas odds, time of year, the possibility of inclement weather, home/away, and the aforementioned team changes.

Updated 2026 NFL Teams’ Strength of Schedule: Easiest to Hardest

1 Detroit Lions

Opponents’ winning percentage in 2025: .484 | 2026 Opponents’ winning percentage (projected): .467

Total projected wins: 10.5

The Lions are gifted dates with the AFC East, and the question marks that come with the NFC South

2 New Orleans Saints

Opponents’ 2025 %: .464 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .472

Proj wins: 7.5

Saints are a hot pick, but bumps in the road always come with a flurry of moves, regardless of schedule strength

3 Cincinnati Bengals

Opponents’ 2025 %: .479 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .476

Proj wins: 10.5

4 Cleveland Browns

Opponents’ 2025 %: .436 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .483

Proj wins: 4.5

Biggest SoS change noted since February reports, but still has the fledgling Browns third-easiest

5 New York Jets

Opponents’ 2025 %: .502 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .490

Proj wins: 5.5

6 Philadelphia Eagles

Opponents’ 2025 %: .498 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .490

Proj wins: 10.5

“Iggles” hold a slight edge over Dallas as favorites from the NFC East. Favorable matchups with the AFC South and in-division, but operating on a minus-14 day “rest factor.” The veterans will face prepared squads repeatedly

7 San Francisco 49ers

Opponents’ 2025 %: .491 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .490

Proj wins: 9.5

Generous in standings-related schedule, but deceptive: The division is rough, and they also face the AFC West

8 Baltimore Ravens

Opponents’ 2025 %: .479 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .493

Proj wins: 11.5

9 Kansas City Chiefs

Opponents’ 2025 %: .536 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .493

Proj wins: 10.5

Also deceptive. “Easy” schedule, but questions about Mahomes’ injury and dates with Rams, Seahawks, and Niners

10 Buffalo Bills

Opponents’ 2025 %: .528 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .497

Proj wins: 10.5

11 Chicago Bears

Opponents’ 2025 %: .550 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .498

Proj wins: 9.5

The single biggest winner of the 2026 “rest factor.” The plus 15-day advantage over opponents marks the second-highest in the last 36 years. Should be more prepped than opponents on numerous occasions. Bet the over!

12 Houston Texans

Opponents’ 2025 %: .495 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .500

Proj wins: 9.5

13 Washington Commanders

Opponents’ 2025 %: .481 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .500

Proj wins: 7.5

Few improvements. A team in transition, even with the 13th-easiest road

14 Jacksonville Jaguars

Opponents’ 2025 %: .509 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .502

Proj wins: 8.5

Sidebar: JAX led the NFL in passes dropped in 2025, usually because passes were “all zing, no touch”

15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Opponents’ 2025 %: .491 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .502

Proj wins: 8.5

Could obliterate the 8.5-win projection with a bounce back from Baker Mayfield 

16 Denver Broncos 

Opponents’ 2025 %: .509 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .503

Proj wins: 9.5

<Halfway Point | All Downhill From Here>

17 Seattle Seahawks

Opponents’ 2025 %: .502 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .505

Proj wins: 10.5

First-place schedule and AFC West highlight a road to tread without Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet

18 Pittsburgh Steelers

Opponents’ 2025 %: .495 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .507

Proj wins: 8.5

19 Las Vegas Raiders

Opponents’ 2025 %: .529 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .509

Proj wins: 5.5

Not only a tough division, but they also play the NFC West and are working with a minus-14 day “rest factor”

20 Atlanta Falcons

Opponents’ 2025 %: .467 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .510

Proj wins: 6.5

21 Los Angeles Chargers

Opponents’ 2025 %: .522 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .510

Proj wins: 8.5

Poor Chargers. On the surface, the schedule isn’t terrible (but the NFC West, though), but the Chargers will carry a nearly unheard-of minus-24-day “rest factor.” They will face a league-high seven games against opponents coming off extended rest and have almost an entire month of constantly playing catch-up. That’s how to slow down a Mike McDaniel offense. Take the under.

22 Green Bay Packers

Opponents’ 2025 %: .538 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .512

Proj wins: 9.5

23 Indianapolis Colts

Opponents’ 2025 %: .495 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .516

Proj wins: 7.5

If you believed the networks, you thought the Colts were top-15 easiest. Not the case.

24 Minnesota Vikings

Opponents’ 2025 %: .519 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .518

Proj wins: 8.5

Vegas isn’t quite sold on a Kyler Murray run to the playoffs

25 New England Patriots

Opponents’ 2025 %: .531 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .519

Proj wins: 10.5

Remember the easy schedule in 2025? Those were simpler times

26 Tennessee Titans

Opponents’ 2025 %: .474 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .519

Proj wins: 6.5

In February, they told you the Titans’ schedule was the third-easiest

27 New York Giants

Opponents’ 2025 %: .495 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .521

Proj wins: 7.5

28 Los Angeles Rams

Opponents’ 2025 %: .516 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .522

Proj wins: 11.5

Tough schedule, but the addition of Myles Garrett and potentially Aaron Donald catapults their projections up to the same level as only the Ravens. (Cue the Gold/Blue and Purple/Black Super Bowl conspiracy graphic)

29 Dallas Cowboys

Opponents’ 2025 %: .491 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .522

Proj wins: 9.5

The holidays give Dallas favorable schedule splits and an overall plus-12 net rest advantage factored into projections, but it’s still a rough road

30 Carolina Panthers

Opponents’ 2025 %: .521 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .524

Proj wins: 7.5

31 Miami Dolphins

Opponents’ 2025 %: .542 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .524

Proj wins: 3.5-4.5 (sportsbooks split)

(Drumroll, please)

32 Arizona Cardinals

Opponents’ 2025 %: .538 | 2026 Opponents’ proj %: .533

Proj wins: 3.5

Jeremiyah Love is not what the doctor ordered, whether Cards’ fans love him or not. Their .533 opponents’ projected percentage is, in a word, brutal. Their division has three different heavy-hitters, and they also tangle with the AFC West. Vegas oddsmakers also noted that no other team has as many specific opponents who overhauled staffs and rosters, pushing their opponents’ win total up a whopping 3.5 wins. The Cardinals’ 3.5 win projection is optimistic at best, borderline irresponsible at worst. To keep up with the league, Arizona went extra hard on the run game. Carson Beck, start getting loose. The clock is ticking.

Updates to Come

This page will be updated if anything moves the needle enough to edit certain teams. Each team’s projected win total is there purely so you can know what sharps believe will happen. That’s important to note when you consider if teams will constantly be playing from behind, etc. That, in turn, will help you to draft.

It’s especially disheartening to see teams that are either turning (or about to turn) the corner. Cam Ward‘s second season features some fresh personnel but a tough row to hoe. Bryce Young and the Panthers started looking primed to take a big step in the wide-open south, but were then served up the third-hardest slate to grind.

And the Chargers… yikes. With a new offensive coordinator whose teams thrive on a massive uptempo pace, they’ll be on a short week for nearly half of their games.

Give me a follow below and let me know what opened your eyes or if you need further explanation! Happy drafting.


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